To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 01Dec25)

📰 Upcoming Economic Data and Market Highlights

Here is a breakdown of the key economic releases and events scheduled for the coming week, sorted by relevant topic.

Manufacturing Sector Indicators 🏭

The following Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data will provide insight into the health of the global and domestic manufacturing sectors. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction.

• China Manufacturing PMI (November):

• Previous: 49.0 (Implied contraction).

• Significance: China’s data is a crucial barometer for global consumption trends, given its role as a major global producer.

• Chicago PMI (December):

• Previous: 43.8 (Indicated contraction in the Chicago manufacturing sector).

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI:

• Forecast: 51.9 (Suggests anticipated growth in global manufacturing).

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (November) & Prices:

• Previous PMI: 48.7 (Represented manufacturing contraction).

• Previous Prices: 58.0 (Indicated significant inflationary pressure and increased costs for manufacturers, which are typically passed on to consumers).

Non-Manufacturing/Services Sector Indicators 🏢

These releases focus on the services side of the economy, which is a significant component of the U.S. economy.

• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (November) & Prices:

• Previous PMI: 52.4 (Showed growth in the non-manufacturing/services sector).

• Previous Prices: 70.0 (Signalled a substantial cost increase for the services sector, likely leading to consumer inflation).

Inflation and Federal Reserve Focus 💰

These are the key indicators and events directly influencing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, especially concerning interest rates.

• Core PCE Price Index (Year-on-Year):

• Latest (September): 2.9%

• Significance: This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. A forecast higher than 2.9 would likely increase pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates instead of cutting them.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech:

• Significance: This address is a highly anticipated reference for the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision and is likely to introduce market volatility, particularly if comments fuel hopes for an interest rate cut.

Labour Market Data 🧑‍💼

These metrics are essential for the Federal Reserve, as it manages both inflation and employment mandates.

• JOLTS Job Openings:

• Previous: 7.227 million jobs.

• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change:

• Previous: 42,000

• Initial Jobless Claims:

• Weekly data to be announced.

Some of these data can introduce volatility into the market as these are important references for the coming interest rate decision.

Earnings Calendar (01Dec25)

I am monitoring the coming earnings from Asana, Salesforce, Kroger and CrowdStrike.

Salesforce: Performance and Outlook

Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment

Salesforce has experienced a notable decline in its stock price, falling 29.7% compared to a year ago. Technical analysis currently recommends a “strong sell”, while analyst sentiment remains positive with a “buy” recommendation.

The analysts’ price target is set at $328.37, suggesting a potential upside of 42.43%.

Revenue and Profit Growth

The company’s revenue has grown substantially, starting at $6.6 billion in 2016 and reaching $37.8 billion in 2025. Over the past decade, Salesforce has maintained a robust median gross profit margin of 74.2% and a free cash flow (FCF) margin of 21%. Operating profit increased from $115 million in 2016 to $7.6 billion in 2025.

Earnings and Dividends

Earnings per share (EPS) improved from -$0.07 in 2016 to a record high of $6.36 in 2025. The company has started issuing dividends, with a dividend per share of $1.60 for 2025.

Valuation and Growth Metrics

Salesforce’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 33.1, supported by a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6% for revenue and 28.8% for free cash flow. These figures indicate strong growth and healthy cash flow generation.

Salesforce’s main competitors in CRM and enterprise software include Microsoft (Dynamics 365), Oracle (CX), ServiceNow, Workday, and Adobe (Experience Cloud). As of November 2025, the software sector’s average P/E ratio is ~25. Competitor P/E ratios are: Microsoft (35), Oracle (46.74), ServiceNow (98), Workday (76), and Adobe (19.95). Most competitors trade above the sector average, reflecting high growth expectations, except Adobe, which is below average.

The software application sector (often classified under Information Technology > Software) has an average trailing P/E ratio of approximately 25 as of November 2025, based on industry medians for software firms. The broader S&P 500 Information Technology sector average is higher at around 38, reflecting growth expectations in tech.- from LLM Grok, Google Finance

Summary of recent news using WarrenAI in Investing.

Salesforce (CRM) just closed its $8.3 billion Informatica acquisition, but shares are down a jaw-dropping -29.7% over the past year—hitting a 52-week low of $221.96. Analysts still see a potential 31.2% fair value upside, but recent volatility and mixed sentiment are keeping traders on edge.

Upcoming Earnings Forecast

For the upcoming earnings report, Salesforce forecasts an EPS of $2.86 and revenue of $10.27 billion.

Given the above data, Salesforce can be a good shortlist for our portfolio. I prefer to monitor for now. Personally, I wonder how AI will affect these enterprise businesses.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (01Dec25)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

Following the recent bottom crossover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is now signalling an uptrend. This suggests a potential shift in momentum toward bullish sentiment as the indicator moves higher.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and 200 MA lines are themselves trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines have recently converged and are now showing an upward trajectory. This convergence and subsequent uptrend further support the case for continued bullish momentum in the market.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.4 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, which is typically interpreted as a positive signal for future price movement.

Technical Analysis Rating

Based on a technical analysis conducted using the daily interval, the asset has received a “strong buy” rating. This assessment is supported by the performance of 21 individual indicators, all of which currently signal a “Buy” recommendation. Notably, none of the indicators are suggesting a “Sell” rating, further reinforcing the overall bullish outlook.

S&P 500 Candlestick Summary (Nov 30, 2025) by Grok

Recent Engulfing Bearish patterns (3-7 candles ago) signal short-term caution at 6,849, with potential pullback to 6,700-6,800 support amid overbought conditions (RSI 72.7). However, strong buy signals from moving averages and MACD suggest shallow dips will be bought.

• Short-term (1-3 months): Neutral to mildly bearish; watch 6,900 resistance vs. 6,800 support.

• Long-term (2025+): Bullish, targeting 6,500 year-end and 7,000-8,200 in 2026, driven by 7-11% EPS growth. Early 2025 bullish patterns confirm an uptrend resilience.

Market Outlook and Considerations

Based on the indicators discussed above, the market is poised for a bullish run in the coming week. Despite the favourable technical setup, it is important to exercise caution due to the current low trading volume. Lower volume can sometimes lead to increased price sensitivity and less reliable market moves. In addition, several macroeconomic data releases are anticipated, which may introduce volatility and impact price action unexpectedly. As such, while the overall outlook remains optimistic, traders should remain vigilant and monitor both volume and macroeconomic developments closely.

News and my thoughts from the past week (01Dec25)

CME just halted ALL futures trading because of a cooling failure at their data centre. Read that again… the entire derivatives market froze because a server room got too hot. This is the same market that moves trillions, sets global prices, and hedges entire economies. - X user Manpreet Kailon

THE SNEAKER MARKET JUST COLLAPSED - AND NOBODY KNOWS WHY. A sneaker shop owner says the entire market “died overnight.” And the numbers are insane - X user HustleBitch

2026 Warning: Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections. Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8%. After the midterms, all is well, but before? - BarChart

Retail investors are rewriting the market playbook: Individual investors are now on track for their 23rd consecutive monthly net purchase of stocks. This is only behind the 32-month streak posted between April 2020 and November 2022. Furthermore, retail has been a net buyer of ETFs for 158 consecutive trading days. Retail investors have net sold ETFs in just 6 days since the beginning of 2024. All while individual investors have purchased more call than put options on net for 29 consecutive weeks, the longest streak on record. Individual investors are redefining markets. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

The US Treasury posted a $284.4 billion deficit in October, the worst opening month to any fiscal year in history. This exceeds the previous record of $284.1 billion in October 2020, during the historic pandemic response. Government spending jumped +18% YoY, to $688.7 billion, bringing the 6-month moving average up to ~$590 billion. To put this differently, US government expenditures averaged ~$22.5 BILLION per day last month. The deficit spiral is accelerating at a record pace. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

US market leverage is absolutely MOONING: US margin debt SPIKED +$57 BILLION last month, to $1.2 TRILLION, the highest EVER. Margin debt has seen the biggest surge since the 2000 Dot-Com MANIA, of nearly +40% in 6 months. Investors are buying stocks on leverage more than EVER. How will this furious rise in speculation end? - X user Global Markets Investor

HSBC built a model to figure out if OpenAI can actually pay for all the compute it’s contracted. The answer is no. OpenAI has committed to $250 billion in cloud compute from Microsoft and $38 billion from Amazon, bringing contracted compute to 36 gigawatts. Based on the total deal value of up to $1.8 trillion, HSBC estimates OpenAI is heading for data centre rental bills of about $620 billion a year, though only a third of that capacity comes online by 2030. - X user Hedgie

The US freight recession is getting WORSE: The Cass Freight Index, a key measure of freight volumes, PLUNGED to the lowest level since the FINANCIAL CRISIS. Shipments fell -4.3% M/M in October, while the Y/Y decline widened to -7.8% - X user Global Markets Investor

David Sacks has said: AI-related investment accounts for half of GDP growth. A reversal would risk recession. We can’t afford to go backwards. - X user Unusual Whales

Without continued AI investments, U.S. GDP growth would collapse in half. - Polymarket

AI debt is SKYROCKETING: US Big Tech stocks’ bond issuance hit $108 BILLION so far in 2025, an all-time high. This is 5 TIMES more than in 2024 or 2023. Importantly, this does not include the off-balance sheet debt through Special Purpose Vehicles, which is also surging. - X user Global Markets Investor

U.S. Banks are now sitting on $337 billion in unrealised losses as of Q3 2025 (FDIC report today) - BarChart

A.I DEBT BUBBLE: Amazon (AMZN): The highest total debt at $160.4 billion. Microsoft (MSFT): Total debt stands at $120.4 billion, Meta Platforms (META): $51.1 billion in total debt, Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL): $44.2 billion total debt, CoreWeave (CRWV): Total debt at approximately $14 billion (extreme leverage- Insurance spreads have skyrocketed and default bets sit at 40% next 5 years). Oracle (ORCL): Total debt reached $111.6 billion (insurance spreads have rocketed recently) - X user The Great Martis

My Investing Muse (01Dec25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

AMAZON LAYOFFS HIT NEARLY 2,000 ENGINEERS - Amazon’s latest round of job cuts has reached deep into its technical ranks, eliminating nearly 2,000 engineering roles and signalling a sharper reset of the company’s ambitions in key growth areas. The reductions, which hit teams working on everything from Alexa to core retail systems, mark one of the most concentrated blows to Amazon’s engineering workforce since its broader downsizing began. - MSN

Companies have announced more than 1.1 million layoffs so far this year, a 44% increase from the total number of layoffs in 2024, per YF

Approximately 30% of all job postings are fake, per MorePerfectUnion

39,006 Americans got advance layoff warnings in October, the second-highest since the 2020 crisis, up 160% in two months, per MW.

Unemployed Americans with 4-year college degrees now make up a record 25.3% of total unemployment. The percentage has doubled since the 2008 Financial Crisis. This comes as over 1.9 million workers aged 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree are now unemployed. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for Americans aged 20–24 is up to 9.2%, the highest since May 2021. This rate has risen +2.2 points YoY, an increase not seen outside recessions. The US labor market is weakening across all education levels. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10% to 20% in the next one to five years, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has said. - Unusual Whales

US manufacturing employment continues to decline: The US economy lost -6,000 manufacturing jobs in September, marking the 5th consecutive monthly contraction. During this period, manufacturing jobs have dropped by -58,000, to 12.71 million, the lowest since March 2022. Since the start of 2024, manufacturing jobs have seen 12 monthly declines. Overall, manufacturing jobs have fallen by -194,000 since the February 2023 peak. Meanwhile, transportation and warehousing employment plunged by -25,000 in September, to 6.71 million, the lowest since November 2024. Industrial sectors are under pressure. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

U.S. LAYOFF NOTICES ARE SURGING AT A RECESSION PACE - NewsWire

My Final Thoughts

Tax Loss harvesting is expected to take place this coming week. At the year ends, we can expect positions to be closed as businesses close out the financial/calendar year. We are still waiting on the impact of the Epstein file. This is likely to bring down some of our leaders - from the realms of politics, business, social and academia. This is affecting the citizens as justice was owed to the victims.

During a recent coffee session, I was chatting with some industry veterans and experts about AI. We are likely to see a transformation of work and workforce. Personally, I need to see a more robust data privacy, security, governance, ethics and policy in place as we delegate more work to AI. This leads me to the next part, where AI needs an adequate energy infrastructure.

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With growing demand and limited capacity, this can be a short-term bottleneck as the government ramps up green energy production and invests in infrastructure.

With some key data releases, let us be hopeful for the best and prepared for the worst.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$