To The Moon

$SPY$

December feels like a “survive the month” environment — not necessarily bearish, but definitely lacking strong upside momentum.

Based on opening flow, $SPY$ may continue grinding higher into this week’s FOMC while staying inside the 675–690 range.

The largest trade was a complex bearish structure:

• Sell Feb ’27 719C $SPY 20260227 719.0 CALL$ 

• Buy Feb ’27 647P $SPY 20260227 647.0 PUT$ 

• Sell Feb ’27 545P $SPY 20260227 545.0 PUT$ 

This setup leans bearish below 647, but the trader only spent ~$1.7M — far cheaper than buying the long 647 put outright. Cheap hedges like this usually imply the market isn’t positioned for a clean crash — more like chop and hesitation.

Into FOMC, flow hints at a potential dip below 660, but it feels more like hedging than conviction.

Best to observe rather than force moves.

$NVDA$

The likelihood of $NVDA$ retesting its 200-day moving average has increased.

The weekly 160P $NVDA 20251205 160.0 PUT$  saw large buy-to-close activity (21.8k contracts), likely from:

• sellers avoiding assignment

• or traders facing margin pressure if $NVDA$ drops further

Either way, downside concern is real.

Sequential put openings across strikes (pink zones) often precede a move lower toward the 200-day MA, and last Friday’s bounce was weak.

Institutions also ran a call spread:

• Sell 182.5C $NVDA 20251205 182.5 CALL$ 

• Buy 190C $NVDA 20251205 190.0 CALL$ 

This shows clear resistance around 182.5 — selling calls near that level remains a solid short setup.

$GOOGL$

Long calls were rolled: closing the Mar ’26 340C $GOOGL 20260320 340.0 CALL$  and opening the Feb ’26 350C $GOOGL 20260220 350.0 CALL$ .

Rolling to:

• a nearer expiry

• at a higher strike

…usually means banking some profit while staying long with lower cost exposure.

$GOOGL$ can still go higher, but it’s not a safe chase here.

$TSLA$

Institutions opened a straightforward call spread:

• Sell 445C $TSLA 20251205 445.0 CALL$ 

• Buy 465C $TSLA 20251205 465.0 CALL$ 

Clear signal upside may cap near 445 for now.

$INTC$

News about possibly supplying Apple with chips in 2027 sent $INTC$ up 10%. Right before the close, someone bought 20k contracts of the Dec 19th 43C $INTC 20251219 43.0 CALL$ , betting on continued strength.

But post-news bullish flow is often unreliable.

This week’s expected pullback zone: 38–39. Selling the weekly 38P $INTC 20251205 38.0 PUT$  could be a reasonable income play if you’re comfortable taking shares.