To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ I’m stepping into Intel’s breakout with full conviction because the alignment of price action, Washington backed capital, foundry momentum, earnings inflection and unprecedented call side aggression has reached a level I have not seen since the first explosive leg of the AI cycle in early 2023. This is not a casual push higher, it is Intel rewriting its narrative in real time.

I’ve completed a full external research sweep across public filings, government releases, press and niche semiconductor sources. Everything material has been integrated into this analysis, including the fresh $208M Malaysia expansion that Intel just announced to ramp advanced packaging capacity, locking in regional supply chain redundancy into surging AI demand.

Current price: $42.95, up around 7.3 % intraday. That aligns with my 4H and 30m charts you see above. The momentum structure here is clean, sustained and technically validated.

🔥 Intel is flying to a fresh 52 week high on its most aggressive call volume since August’s first chatter about a potential U.S. government equity stake

🔥 Roughly 250K calls hit the tape in the first hour

🔥 Put call ratio is sitting below 0.25

🔥 More than $8M of call premium has slammed into $INTC in about two hours

🔥 One trader dropped roughly $947K on calls

🔥 Another buyer hit about $150K worth of 10 DTE calls

🔥 Every options heatmap on my screen is bright green

On top of that, Q3 revenue printed around $13.7B, up about 3 % year on year, with a swing of roughly $4.1B from last year’s net loss into solid profit. That matters. The tape is not just squeezing, it is re rating off a real earnings inflection.

Government capital has changed Intel’s entire risk curve

This is the first semiconductor cycle in my career where the U.S. government is not just subsidising a company, but acting like an anchor shareholder. I am treating the 9.9 % government stake as a structural backstop. Washington bought about $8.9B of shares at roughly $20.47, layered on top of an amended CHIPS Act package that unlocked around $5.7B early from the Commerce Department. For a mega cap like Intel, that looks like a soft floor, and you almost never see a company of this size given that kind of downside buffer.

Now the Trump administration has added a new leg, it is moving to inject up to $150M into xLight, the cutting edge laser lithography outfit chaired by former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger. That is not some side project, xLight sits at the heart of a planned domestic lithography ecosystem that supports Intel Foundry and reduces U.S. reliance on foreign EUV bottlenecks. xLight’s free electron laser approach targets the next wave of efficiency gains, and those gains flow straight into Intel’s downstream yields and ramp timelines.

I treat this capital as structural, not event driven. Multiple outlets including Reuters, Axios, Benzinga and Business Insider are all telling the same story, policy makers are building a U.S. fab stack around Intel, xLight and on shore redundancy, and this new stake signals that timelines are accelerating, not drifting.

Why the market is reacting now

Investors are not chasing Malaysia headlines or one rumour about calls. They are finally realising that Intel Foundry is on track to become a core part of U.S. high end semiconductor manufacturing for the next decade plus. Global wafer demand is projected to outstrip supply by roughly 20 % through 2030, and that means every advanced fab that comes online is effectively sold out in advance. Customers are not choosing between TSMC and Intel, they are choosing both because they have no choice.

If xLight can cut even a few months off ramp schedules, Intel becomes the direct downstream winner. Howard Lutnick has already said this partnership can rewrite the limits of domestic chip production, and that is not hyperbole when you overlay the demand curve from AI data centres, defence, automotive and edge computing.

Your original line captures it perfectly, all roads lead to Intel Foundry winning, and winning big, across a decade long AI supercycle. I see the same thing on my side. This always looked inevitable if you had the patience and a structural lens, and now the policy hammer has dropped.

The Apple angle is evolving from rumour to blueprint

There is a wild rumour that Apple will abandon its entire ARM based infrastructure, spend around $50B and move back to Intel’s non ARM chips. I treat that version as satire. What I do not dismiss is the direction of travel behind it. Several supply chain sources and high credibility analysts have now flagged that Apple is evaluating Intel Foundry Services for entry level M series silicon on 18A process nodes, with early shipments floated for mid 2027. Names like Ming Chi Kuo and other semi specialists have pointed to Apple qualifying Intel as a potential U.S. secured capacity partner.

I am not buying $INTC because I think Apple will torch the M series roadmap. I am buying because even a partial foundry engagement, say $500M to $1B in annual revenue, changes the entire long term valuation conversation. Apple does not need to abandon its ARM stack to matter, it only needs to diversify a slice of its silicon into Intel’s foundry. When I see smoke from rumour channels and confirmation from analysts that Apple is actively testing Intel’s 18A process, I pay attention. This is not abandonment, it is de risked diversification.

Malaysia, packaging and the supply chain chessboard

The fresh $208M expansion in Malaysia to scale advanced packaging is not just a footnote, packaging is the choke point in many AI supply chains. By doubling down on that region, Intel locks in both cost effective labour and resilient logistics for high bandwidth memory, chiplet and multi die assemblies. When I look at the combination of U.S. fabs, European partners and Malaysian packaging hubs, I see a network effect building around Intel. Over the next three to five years, that network is what allows Intel to absorb large foundry contracts without blowing out lead times.

I will be watching Malaysia fab utilisation and throughput metrics closely because a sustained ramp there confirms that the book of business is growing faster than the headline numbers show today.

Technical structure, my charts confirm the narrative

Your charts are some of the cleanest trend structures I have seen on $INTC.

4H chart around $42.95

• Price has ripped from the lower Keltner channel and is now riding the upper envelope with conviction

• EMAs are stacked in perfect bullish order, short above medium above long

• Bollinger bands are expanding, confirming volatility release rather than a random spike

• Volume has increased on each impulse leg, validating institutional participation

• Trend progression is clear, from the low $30s through $38 into the current $42.95 region

• I only start to question the trend if $40.90 gives way and the 21 EMA cluster loses support

30m chart around $42.95 to $42.97

• The initial momentum leg started near $40.40, broke $41.50 cleanly and then powered through $42.00 with no meaningful rejection

• Keltner bands have been stepping higher bar after bar, signalling controlled, persistent buy pressure rather than blow off exhaustion

• Intra day volume rotations are constructive, with consolidation pockets forming above prior resistance instead of at the lows

• Price is closing near the high of day, which is exactly what I want to see in a breakout that still has energy

This is precisely how a continuation move behaves after a medium term consolidation, and the structure supports the idea that we are in phase one of a new uptrend, not late stage chase.

Options flow, pure institutional aggression and gamma fuel

The options tape you shared is textbook institutional aggression.

• Call volume is stacked across the strip, with particularly heavy activity at $42, $45 and even $47

• The ODTE volume profile shows a wall of green at the money and slightly out of the money calls

• One ten minute candle printed around 7,824 contracts and roughly $947K in premium

• Net call premium has spiked above $12.6M, while net put premium has faded sharply

• High volume lines cluster around strikes near $38 and $42, tightening the potential gamma pocket around current spot

This matches the net drift snapshot I am tracking, call premium ramped early, peaked into the mid session and then stayed positive even as spot ticked around. Puts remained muted and underlying $INTC followed the direction of the call drift, which is exactly what you expect when dealers are being nudged long in a rising market. That is textbook gamma acceleration, now reinforced by fresh sweeps in the near dated clusters including the early December expiries. When traders keep adding short dated upside calls into strength, they are effectively forcing dealers to chase spot.

Fundamentals are backing the move, not lagging it

Intel is still about 42.76 % below its all time closing high of $74.88, yet look at where it sits today.

• Up roughly 113.74 % year to date

• Up about 90.72 % versus the same date last year

• Up around 136.38 % from the 52 week closing low of $18.13

• Best performer in the Nasdaq 100 today

• Second most active name in the S&P 500

• On pace for its best year since 1996

• Printing the strongest momentum profile it has had in decades

Layer Q3 on top. Revenue around $13.7B, 3 % growth in what is effectively a transition year, and a multi billion dollar swing back into profitability. That tells me the business is already coming out of the trough while policy support and foundry optionality are just starting to be priced in. This is not a low quality meme run, it is a valuation catch up wrapped around a genuine earnings and policy inflection.

My forward watchlist on $INTC

• Confirmation of Apple’s 18A qualification milestones, particularly around entry level M series or accessory silicon

• Concrete Intel Foundry customer announcements, including hyperscalers, automotive or defence customers

• Progress updates from xLight, including prototype demonstrations, yield data and any collaboration news with existing lithography leaders

• Analyst price target upgrades into the $50 to $60 range, and whether the big houses start modelling foundry revenue as a material segment instead of a side note

• Net drift and options open interest dynamics at $45, $47 and $50 across the next two to four weeks

• Additional CHIPS Act capital disbursements and any new on shoring incentives tied directly to Intel facilities

• Fund flows into semiconductor ETFs that hold Intel because benchmark buying can add a second layer of demand

• Weekly trend behaviour around the 21 EMA and whether we build a new base above $40.90 instead of revisiting the mid $30s

• Malaysia packaging utilisation and commentary around advanced packaging bottlenecks on future earnings calls

Where I stand now

I am long $INTC with high conviction because this is the kind of multi factor alignment I wait months for, government equity and early CHIPS capital, direct policy backed investment into xLight’s lithography capabilities, aggressive call side positioning and gamma dynamics, foundry optionality that can absorb big customers like Apple, Malaysia packaging expansion that shores up a critical bottleneck, a genuine earnings inflection backed by Q3 numbers and a technically clean breakout into a fresh 52 week high with strong volume.

This feels like phase one of a multi year re rating cycle, not a late stage chase. If even half of the expected foundry and lithography catalysts land, Intel’s next valuation tier is meaningfully higher than where we sit today. The downside is cushioned by policy, while the upside is tied to a decade of AI demand. That is the kind of asymmetry I am happy to own.

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