Bye Bye 2025
2025 was a year that started with confidence from last year’s gains…
but March and April tested everything — discipline,seriousness, and belief in my own thesis.
Yet, the clarity of framework and conviction in the approach paid off.
Out of the entire universe of stocks lists, shortlisted Candidates were $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , Google, MSFT, Amazon basically anything which is roughly 30X or less
Averaging right, not blindly — that made all the difference.
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What Worked
• MAG 7 low-PE opportunities delivered when the market mispriced fear.
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
• Index plays provided stability and compounding.
• Leveraging the portfolio in April accelerated the recovery when others were panicking.
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What I Learnt (Hard Truths)
• High PE = High Fragility.
Even giants fall — Novo Nordisk reminded me of that.
• No stock is too big to fail.
Even stocks sitting in the top 5 portfolios of super-investors can drop 60% — UnitedHealth proved it.
Stock-picking mastery takes time.
A 6-month thesis doesn’t always play out. Some ideas need a year or more to reveal themselves.
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Dry Powder
- Significance of having cash and seeing the prices fall wait and execute
- Markets perception changes very quickly rinheard from an analyst if we r in recession the PE multiples for index should be 14 not 24 that is 50% roughly , give that markets fall 20% other 20% fall will result in devastation. Honestly what markets witnessed in April were not fed intervention but BlackRock ceo bill ackman tweet I believe for the tariffs to lift
Opportunities Ahead
• Deep value pockets still exist.
• Multiples normalize; markets overreact both ways.
• As long as the business quality, cash flows, and valuation make sense — opportunities remain.
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Challenges to Accept
• Never average in a hurry.
Price is not the thesis — business and valuation are.
• Watch the multiples carefully.
In this market, stocks move from 15× PE to 30× PE in days.
Chasing those moves destroys returns.
• Mastering the Sell is the hardest skill.
Buying is easy.
Holding is hard.
Selling at the right time is an art.
And yes…
Selling is VERY tough. Extremely tough.
But that’s what separates good investors from great ones.
At last happy to close year with 40 to 50 percent gains
Modify on 2025-12-05 22:48
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