To The Moon

I think Morgan Stanley's downgrade reflects a very real concern: Pop Mart's $POP MART(09992)$  growth runway is clearly slowing. When a company that once relied on explosive expansion suddenly sees its projected revenue growth cut from 30% to 18%, it signals that the market is maturing faster than expected. I agree with the overall direction of the report—even if I don't fully buy into every assumption—because the recent sales data, weaker consumer sentiment, and intensifying competition all suggest that Pop Mart's high-growth phase is tapering off.

At the same time, I don't think the stock's 40% drop from the August highs is purely about fundamentals. What I'm seeing now feels like a momentum-driven flush where shorts are piling in aggressively, amplifying every piece of negative news. The valuation has corrected sharply, and sentiment has swung from euphoria to fear very quickly. That makes me believe a lot of the pessimism is already priced in, even before we have actual 2025 numbers.

As for whether HK$180 is the next target, I think it's possible—but not guaranteed. If the macro stays weak and Pop Mart delivers another set of mediocre results, the sellers will keep the upper hand and the stock could absolutely drift toward that level. But if the company manages to stabilize same-store sales, push new IP hits, or show traction overseas, the market might find support earlier than people think. The key here is whether growth can re-accelerate even modestly.

Overall, I'm cautious but not outright bearish at this stage. I agree with Morgan Stanley $Morgan Stanley(MS)$   that the growth outlook is softer, but I also feel the current sell-off is getting a bit exaggerated. HK$180 is a level I'll watch, but I'm not treating it as a guaranteed downside target unless the fundamentals deteriorate further.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community. 

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