To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$

🧭 Ownership Structure And The Asymmetric Upside Window

I am convinced SpaceX is setting up one of the most asymmetric listings in modern market history. Elon Musk owns 42%, Founders Fund holds 10.4%, Google Ventures owns 7.4%, and the remaining 30% sits with strategic investors. If SpaceX IPOs at a $1.5T valuation, his stake alone is worth roughly $625B, lifting his net worth towards about $952B. There is currently around a 67% probability on Polymarket that SpaceX’s closing market cap exceeds $1T, while earlier contracts traded closer to 54%. Secondary tenders have already drifted toward $400B this year as investors price in a structural rerating, not just hype.

Elon has now confirmed SpaceX will IPO in 2026. In his own framing, it will take a lot of cash to design and build the satellites and launch the rockets to deploy data centres in space. The IPO is not about cash, it is about firepower in an AI arms race where whoever builds and deploys fastest wins. If SpaceX executes, Elon is positioned to become the first trillionaire in history. It pays to innovate.

💸 Macro Liquidity, AI Capex, And Cycle Tailwinds

I believe the macro backdrop is unusually supportive. Rate cuts, a cooling inflation path, and a global surge in AI capex are lifting growth multiples across aerospace, defence, and infrastructure. For the first time, liquidity, defence budgets, and compute demand are all expanding together. SpaceX sits directly where those three flows intersect.

🛰️ Starlink V3 And The Dawn Of Orbital AI Powerhouses

SpaceX now runs the sky. It has launched more than 10,600 satellites, with about 9,000 still in orbit and roughly 8,000 active, close to 70% of all operational satellites around Earth. Every other operator combined does not come close.

Starlink V3 is the real inflection. Current designs produce around 20 to 25 kW, but by swapping broadband payload mass for larger solar arrays and radiators, future units can exceed 100 kW of continuous power. Space offers what terrestrial data centres crave: effectively infinite solar energy and free cooling.

Starlink’s laser mesh already operates as a low latency optical nervous system, moving traffic at 100 Gbps between nodes. Once GPU arrays are slotted in, you get a distributed orbital AI fabric that never overheats, rarely loses daylight, and largely sidesteps ground based grid constraints. Floating AI supercomputers whispering to each other through a laser network, crunching data above the weather.

Former SpaceX veteran Abhi Tripathi called this the moment the writing was on the wall for an IPO. Once Elon commits, he goes all in. The IPO is about turning private velocity into public firepower.

🏭 Inside The Factory: Starship’s Total Transformation

I am extremely confident that the hardware story is underappreciated. Inside the factory, Starship’s upper stage is getting a total rebuild. New Raptor engines. More thrust. Smarter avionics. Reinforced energy and thermal systems for deep space. Sleek new docking ports that let two Starships link up in orbit to swap fuel before heading to the Moon or Mars.

Super Heavy is becoming a different beast entirely. A wider fuel spine. Stretched tanks. Three giant grid fins designed to lift, guide, and literally catch the rocket on return. Raptor 3 is simpler, meaner, and more powerful, generating around 280 tons of thrust per engine. A gimbal free architecture cuts engine mass by about 7% while targeting high vacuum efficiency. Heat shield tiles now show around 99% survival in reentry simulations. This is not a gentle upgrade cycle, it is an industrial re-architecture built for high cadence deep space logistics.

🚀 Launch Dominance: SpaceX Just Reset What Leading Even Means

SpaceX reached 160 orbital launches this year. The entire rest of the world including China, Russia, Europe, India, Japan, and other US providers combined sits around 142. Falcon 9 carries roughly 53% to 60% of all orbital missions, depending on the metric, and SpaceX alone often accounts for more than 60% of successful mass insertion to orbit in a year.

Reusability is the engine. Falcon 9 boosters fly 15 to 20 times and Starlink missions regularly lift 20 to 60 satellites per launch. Launch cadence has shifted from rare events to something that feels scheduled.

SPACEX JUST MADE THE 2025 LAUNCH COUNT LOOK LOPSIDED is not just a headline, it is the new baseline. The previous global record of 96 launches, set by SpaceX itself in 2023, now looks small by comparison. One hundred sixty launches in a single year turns orbit into an operational domain rather than an exception.

🎯 Falcon 9 Booster B1067: Repeatability As Moat

Falcon 9 booster B1067 has made history. After its latest Starlink mission from Cape Canaveral, it completed its 32nd flight and 32nd landing. No rocket in human history has done that. Thirty two launches. Thirty two landings. The same booster. It flew eight times in 2025 alone.

This single rocket has flown more than entire national programmes. SpaceX engineers say it will keep flying in 2026, possibly toward 40 or even 45 missions as refurbishment cycles fall toward single digit days. SpaceX did not just crack reusability, it turned it into an industrial rhythm.

💻 Bezos Follows Elon Into Space Based Compute

Jeff Bezos is following SpaceX by pushing Blue Origin toward orbital AI data centres. Reports indicate more than a year of development on orbital server concepts. At the same time, analysts expect terrestrial data centres to consume up to 2% of global power by 2030. AWS sits inside that constraint. Orbital compute scales power at near zero marginal watts. Elon has already moved to where the physics and economics converge.

📊 Revenue Trajectory, IPO Pipeline, And Starlink Spinoff Optionality

Bloomberg and private trackers show SpaceX as the crown jewel of a roughly $2.9T IPO pipeline:

$1.5T SpaceX

$520B OpenAI

$490B ByteDance

$195B Anthropic

$145B Databricks

$115B Stripe

SpaceX is expected to generate around $15B in revenue this year, ramping toward approximately $23B by 2026. Only SpaceX bundles launch dominance, a global broadband network, and Mars capable logistics in a single vertically integrated stack.

Starlink itself could eventually be spun off as a separate listing. A Starlink IPO layered on top of a SpaceX listing would create one of the most powerful capital markets waves in space sector history.

For the rest of the pipeline, the path is less clear. OpenAI remains cautious despite a private valuation near $500B. ByteDance faces geopolitical firewalls. Stripe is cleaning up cap tables. Databricks targets readiness for 2026. Anthropic rides valuation heat without fixed plans. They all matter, but none control physical access to orbit.

🌍 The Space Economy Stack

The broader space economy is already organising around SpaceX’s gravity well.

Launch and propulsion: SpaceX, $RKLB, $FLY, $GE

Satellites: $PL, $ASTS, $BA, $MNTS

Components: $CMI, $HON

Data analytics: $BKSY, $PLTR, $SPIR

Materials: $USAR, $ATI

Comms: $VSAT, $IRDM, $SATS

Networks: $VZ, $T, $TMUS

Defence: $NOC, $LMT, $LHX

Sensors and power: $MOG.A, $STI, $BWXT, $TDY

ARK sees the space economy reaching about $2.5T by 2030. Even conservative scenarios point to multiples of today’s levels.

🧠 Political Heat: Elon Versus AOC

Elon builds cars, rockets, brain chips, tunnels, and a global internet network, but that is still not enough for his critics. AOC recently described him as “not a scientist or engineer, just a billionaire conman with a lot of money.” This is despite:

SpaceX completing hundreds of missions and landing rockets with clockwork precision

Tesla leading global EV sales and advancing full self driving

Starlink serving millions of users across 150+ countries

Neuralink restoring computer interaction through brain implants

The Boring Company building underground transit tunnels

The polarisation here feeds narrative velocity. It keeps Elon, and by extension SpaceX, at the centre of cultural and political attention.

📡 Two Speed Growth Curve: Cash Engine And Convexity Engine

SpaceX runs on two powerful flywheels.

First, the Starlink cash engine. Over 8M subscribers and growing, with direct to cell services in the pipeline. This leg can compound revenue at 40%+ annually as coverage expands and pricing optimises.

Second, the orbital compute convexity engine. Starlink V3 satellites acting as 100 kW class compute nodes with 100 Gbps optical links and GPU racks cooled by the vacuum. This is the optionality that the market has barely begun to price. It transforms space from a transport layer into a compute and infrastructure layer.

🔭 Is SpaceX The Next Tesla, And Would I Buy The IPO?

Tesla in 2019 wrestled with production ramps and scepticism. SpaceX in 2026 dominates orbital logistics, runs the largest satellite network in history, and is building an orbital AI compute grid. Tesla rewired mobility. SpaceX is rewiring physics, compute, defence, and communications.

I would buy the SpaceX IPO without hesitation! I see multi year tailwinds from Starlink subscriber growth, direct to cell, orbital compute, defence contracts, and spectrum rights. SpaceX is not iterating Tesla, it is exponentiating the Tesla playbook into orbit. Tesla owned the road. SpaceX owns the void.

🏛️ Institutional Demand, Scarcity, And Volatility

I expect SpaceX to generate one of the most lopsided demand profiles since Alibaba’s listing. Scarcity premium, index and benchmark pressure, hedge fund momentum, and retail oversubscription will collide. Volatility around the IPO is likely to be high, but skewed to the upside as books struggle to satisfy demand.

👉❓ How far do you believe SpaceX’s valuation can run in the first year after it lists once orbital AI compute becomes reality?

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