To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $IREN Ltd(IREN)$

📈 Nvda stabilises as relative performance finally turns

What matters here is not a single green session but the shift in behaviour. $NVDA had been the only $SMH component still down since the 20NOV S&P 500 low, making the underperformance increasingly structural. Today’s bounce off HVL interrupts that trend. From a structure and volatility standpoint, holding HVL while gamma stabilises reopens higher levels, provided broader risk does not fracture again.

🧩 SchedMD acquisition quietly reshapes Nvidia’s control layer

The SchedMD acquisition is far more strategic than it looks at first glance. Slurm is the system that decides how supercomputers allocate and schedule massive AI workloads. By bringing the team behind Slurm in-house, Nvidia moves deeper into workload orchestration, not just acceleration. This tightens platform dependency at the enterprise level, ensuring AI systems are not merely powered by Nvidia GPUs but managed through Nvidia-controlled infrastructure. Owning this layer makes Nvidia harder to displace, even if competing silicon exists.

🧠 Nemotron 3 signals Nvidia’s expansion into models, not just machines

The release of the Nemotron 3 family reinforces this direction. These open, enterprise-ready models give customers a plug-and-play blueprint for building agentic AI directly on Nvidia’s stack. Jensen is expanding the software and model layer around the hardware so ecosystems are built on Nvidia, not merely with Nvidia. That shift matters as closed models increasingly run on non-Nvidia silicon.

Bernstein echoes this view, reiterating Outperform with a $275 PT, citing Nvidia’s programmable platform advantage and multi-year lead over TPU.

🏗️ The House of GPUs meets a power reality check

Beneath the surface, stress is building across the AI infrastructure chain. Nvidia-linked data centre names like $APLD, $CRWV, and $NBIS are under pressure as AI credit spreads widen, bond pricing slips, and convert issuance adds equity supply. Capital intensity is colliding with tighter funding assumptions. That friction is real, and the market is repricing it quickly.

⚡ Power becomes the binding constraint, not GPU demand

Nvidia hosting a power summit this week is not incidental. AI data centres are projected to face a ~44 gigawatt power shortfall by 2028, and Nvidia understands that utilisation, not demand, will cap growth if energy is not solved. The AI stack now moves as a system.

• At the top sit fuel and generation inputs like $CCJ, $LEU, $OKLO, $GEV, $FSLR and $UUUU.

• In the middle are operators converting that supply into dependable power, names like $NEE, $VST, $TLN and $NRG.

• At the base are grid stability and storage providers such as $TSLA, $EOSE, $QS, $MVST and $FLNC.

If any layer fails, utilisation drops and even the strongest GPU demand curves break. Power is now the real bottleneck of the AI economy, and this summit exists because Nvidia knows the next trillion dollars of growth depends on solving it.

⚡ Crypto and compute selling reflects liquidity stress

The spillover into adjacent markets reinforces that message. The broader data centre and crypto complex is selling aggressively, with $CIFR and $IREN under sustained pressure. The speed of the $IREN move into the mid-30s points to forced positioning and liquidity stress rather than a slow-moving fundamental reassessment.

🧮 Orcl reflects late-cycle leadership fatigue

$ORCL fits the same recalibration theme. A drawdown of more than 40% from the September peak while still green on the year is classic leadership exhaustion. Oracle sits between AI optimism and enterprise spending reality, and the market is reassessing how much growth was pulled forward versus what still needs to be financed.

🚀 Small caps quietly regain relative strength

Rotation continues beneath the surface. $IWM stocks are outperforming $SPX stocks, which matters as policy shifts and leadership broadens. Small caps have been overlooked globally for a long period and carry less exposure to the mega-cap AI capex arms race.

🪙 Bitcoin pauses as seasonality turns neutral

A neutral seasonality score of 0 for $BTC points to a quieter phase rather than a directional setup. Even with Michael Saylor’s Strategy buying 10,645 Bitcoin worth roughly $980M, price response has been muted. Without fresh macro or equity KPI confirmation, focus naturally shifts toward real-time signals like volatility and flow. Patience and flexibility tend to outperform conviction trades in this regime.

🏛️ Policy backdrop supports rotation, not concentration

NY Fed’s John Williams calling policy “well positioned” reinforces the move from modestly restrictive toward neutral. His outlook for growth improving into 2026 with inflation drifting toward 2% supports a rotation-friendly environment rather than narrow leadership.

⚠️ Meta headlines reframe platform risk

The Reuters report on $META reframes the debate. If scams and illegal ads made up roughly 19% of China ad revenue and enforcement was eased to protect billions in sales, that reflects a business decision, not a technology failure. That distinction matters when pricing regulatory and trust risk.

🧭 Bottom line

This is recalibration, not collapse. $NVDA holding HVL is necessary but not sufficient. Nvidia is extending control across workloads, models, and power awareness while the market reprices capital, credit, and energy constraints. In this environment, stack ownership, balance sheet resilience, and system-level thinking matter far more than chasing surface narratives.

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