What actually drives the next leg
$恒生指数(HSI)$ direction often comes down to a handful of macro levers: China growth expectations, RMB sentiment, and global risk appetite. For positioning, I watch:
Policy follow-through: not just announcements, but credit impulse and real activity improving.
Earnings revisions: does the market stop cutting estimates for major index constituents?
Flow data: sustained southbound inflows can change the tone even before fundamentals fully turn.
Sectorally, $恒生指数(HSI)$ can swing depending on whether internet/platform names re-rate, banks respond to rate expectations, and property-related sentiment stabilizes.
Risks: USD strength (pressure on EM/China assets), policy disappointment, and geopolitics.
Base-case approach: treat rallies as higher quality when they’re accompanied by improving revisions and consistent flows—not only by a one-day macro headline.
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