Why SLV ETF is My Superhero Trade: The Geopolitical Squeeze & the Path to USD 100
๐๐๐This year the Silver market didn't just rally. It exploded leaving Gold in its dust. The price surged over 120% in 2025, hitting record highs above USD 70 to USD 80 an ounce. I am invested in $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$
Understanding SLV ETF
The$iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ is the largest and most liquid way for investors to gain exposure to the price of Silver without dealing with the logistics of physical storage and insurance.
Tracks Spot Price : SLV aims to mirror the daily performance of the spot price of Silver, specifically the LBMA Silver price minus expenses.
Physically Backed: SLV is a grantor trust that holds physical silver bullion in secure vaults, primarily in London and New York, with each share representing a fractional ownership of the trust's silver holdings.
Liquidity: It is highly liquid and trades in the NYSE Arca stock exchange like an individual stock, making it easy to buy and sell shares throughout the day.
Expense ratio: It charges a net expense ratio of 0.50% annually.
Why is Silver so High Now? The Perfect Storm
Silver is soaring due to a perfect collision of industrial need, monetary fear and once in a generation physical shortage.
The Industrial Workhorse: Unlike Gold, Silver is primarily an industrial metal, vital for green energy transition. Silver is used in solar panels, EVs and in data centers, semiconductors due to the AI boom. There is almost no substitute for its conductivity.
Persistent Deficits : The world had been using more silver than it mines for 5 years straight. These structural deficits have drained major exchange vaults to multi year lows, signaling genuine scarcity, not just paper speculation.
Monetary Angst : As a safe haven asset, Silver has also benefited from a weakening US dollar, ongoing central bank de-dollarisation efforts and general geopolitical tensions.
The China Factor : A Geopolitical Earthquake for 2026
The biggest reason for my conviction in the SLV narrative is China's new export licensing system, effective January 1 2026. This is a game changer.
China refines 60% to 70% of the world's silver. The new rules effectively cut off most smaller players overnight by requiring stringent government licences, which only large state approved firms can meet.
The Physical Premium Explodes : This has created a massive price gap. While the US futures markets (COMEX) might trade around the USD 65 to USD 75 range, physical silver in Shanghai has reportedly demanded prices as high as USD 80 to USD 91 per ounce in late December 2025.
Elon Musk has commented that "This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes."
The US Response
The US government has added Silver to its official 2025 List of Critical Minerals in November 2025. This strategic reclassification acknowledges that disruption in Silver supply could threaten national security and the economy.
This designation means that the US can now offer grants and incentives for domestic silver production and recycling to reduce reliance on foreign imports.
Will Silver Hit USD 100 in 2026?
After a historic 2025, analysts expect the rally to remain strong but volatile. The consensus points to an average price range of USD 55 to USD 65 per ounce for 2026.
However the potential for USD 100 per ounce is no longer considered a "speculative projection" but a real possibility among many market players.
Bullish Forecasts: Experts at firms like Citi and GoldSilver see a path to USD 100 or even USD 110 if supply disruptions persist and industrial demand remains robust.
Retail Sentiment : A survey showed that 57% of retail traders actually expect silver to cross the USD 100 per ounce mark in 2026.
While major banks remain more cautious, the unique confluence of supply shocks, insatiable industrial demand and geopolitical tensions suggests that Silver is set for a wild ride in 2026. The squeeze is real and it has only just begun.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger @Tiger_SG
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