To The Moon

I see the recent pullback in the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$   less as a reason to panic and more as a stress test for a very crowded bullish consensus. When every major strategist is on the same side of the boat, I become cautious—not because the trend is broken, but because expectations are already high. A market that has delivered three strong years in a row doesn't need bad news to correct; it only needs reality to come in slightly below perfection.

That said, I don't view this pullback as an outright warning signal either. The macro backdrop going into 2026 still looks constructive: easing financial conditions, resilient corporate earnings, and productivity gains driven by AI investment. The fact that previously cautious houses like JPMorgan $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$  have turned bullish tells me the fundamental narrative has broad support, not just speculative enthusiasm. This is not the same setup as a late-cycle melt-up driven purely by leverage.

For me, the key question is positioning rather than direction. After such a long winning streak, I'm less inclined to chase broad indices aggressively. If this pullback deepens modestly, I'd treat it as a selective buying opportunity—adding exposure to high-quality companies with durable cash flows, strong balance sheets, and clear AI or productivity leverage, rather than simply buying the index indiscriminately.

At the same time, year-end is a sensible moment to reAs a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community. 

balance. I'm using strength to trim positions that have run far ahead of fundamentals and re-align my portfolio with my risk tolerance for 2026. This isn't about turning bearish; it's about acknowledging that upside may be more incremental from here, while volatility could rise as expectations reset.

In short, I see this pullback as a gift only if it's used thoughtfully. I'm staying constructive on the S&P 500's medium-term direction, but disciplined in execution—adding on weakness, rebalancing into strength, and resisting the temptation to assume that a unanimous bullish consensus guarantees a smooth ride ahead.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.

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