To The Moon

ALLLLL RED. And not the Santa kinda red!

🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴

I’m framing this session as measured de-risking rather than emotional liquidation. Internals support that view, and the tape reads like late-year positioning, not a regime shift.

I’m noting that after trading red most of the day, $IXIC and $SPX closed modestly lower, while $DJI fell 94 points. All three logged a third straight daily loss as tech struggled to bounce from Monday’s drop. I’m stating this plainly, the market slipped again today, but breadth wasn’t ugly.

🔻 Down movers

I’m watching pressure persist in growth-heavy indices as year-end adjustments continued. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48,367.06, down 94.87 points, -0.20%. S&P 500 ended at 6,896.24, down 9.50 points, -0.14%. Nasdaq Composite finished at 23,419.08, down 55.27 points, -0.24%. Russell 2000 lagged at 2,500.5863, down 19.2115 points, -0.76%. S&P MidCap 400 dropped 12.42 points, -0.37%.

🔺 Up movers

I’m noting selective resilience rather than broad upside leadership. This was a session where narrative, positioning, and stock-specific conviction mattered more than index beta.

🧩 Special catalysts

I’m tracking disciplined deal behaviour in media. Warner Bros $WBD is expected to reject Paramount’s revised takeover offer again, per Bloomberg. Despite added financing guarantees from Larry Ellison, $PSKY did not raise its $30 per share bid, which continues to be viewed as inferior to the $NFLX deal. This reads as valuation discipline asserting itself, not deal fatigue.

FTAI Aviation $FTAI traded at record highs after unveiling FTAI Power, a new unit aimed at solving data-centre power shortages by converting jet engines into power turbines. I’m focused on this as tangible AI infrastructure, addressing a real electricity bottleneck, with production starting in 2026. This is capacity expansion meeting demand.

🧠 Options flow

I’m watching options activity remain elevated on red tape, with call bias staying dominant. $NLY traded 543,723 contracts with 539,701 calls versus 4,022 puts, 42x average volume. $AGNC logged 458,860 contracts, 442,711 calls versus 16,149 puts, 17x. $NIO printed 345,479 contracts, 311,085 calls versus 34,394 puts. $USB saw 313,515 contracts, 312,351 calls versus 1,164 puts. $NTR traded 181,596 contracts, 172,835 calls versus 8,761 puts. $RITM showed 136,868 contracts with 136,344 calls versus 524 puts. Persistent call skew points to targeted conviction rather than broad risk aversion.

🛢️ Commodities

I’m watching gold and silver slide alongside equities. This aligns with positioning resets, not defensive demand. Spot Silver Falls Over 4% To $73.15/Oz.

📊 Market breadth

This is where today’s nuance sits. NYSE total volume came in at 899.37m, with up volume of 452.55m versus down volume of 433.74m. Advancers numbered 2,129 versus 2,258 decliners, while new highs at 190 comfortably outpaced new lows at 80. Nasdaq volume was heavy at 12,681.63m, with up volume of 6,795.69m versus down volume of 5,742.10m. Advancers totalled 4,960 versus 6,172 decliners, and new highs at 333 narrowly exceeded new lows at 326. NYSE participation held up better than Nasdaq, where selling pressure showed up more in volume than participation.

📉 Index action

I’m focused on the precise closes. Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 48,367.06, down 94.87 points, -0.20%. S&P 500 closed at 6,896.24, down 9.50 points, -0.14%. S&P 100 ended at 3,454.22, down 3.00 points, -0.09%. Nasdaq Composite settled at 23,419.08, down 55.27 points, -0.24%. Russell 2000 closed at 2,500.5863, down 19.2115 points, -0.76%. VIX finished at 14.33, up 0.13, +0.92%.

🏭 Sector snapshot

I’m tracking Citi’s sector broadening thesis closely. Energy $XLE, materials $XLB, REITs $XLRE, and utilities $XLU are expected to flip from drags to contributors, extending the expansion beyond mega-cap tech.

🌍 Macro context

I’m focused on the FOMC minutes, and the signal is nuance rather than certainty. The headline is not just the 25bp cut, it is a split Fed with three dissents. Officials cited rising downside risks to jobs, subdued hiring, and unemployment edging higher. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with tariffs pushing up core goods and uncertainty still high. The government shutdown distorted data quality, forcing heavier reliance on private indicators and business contacts. Money markets tightened modestly, repo conditions firmed, and the EFFR–IORB spread widened. The Fed plans Treasury bill purchases to keep reserves ample and removed the aggregate cap on standing repo operations to normalise usage. I’m reading this as controlled policy management.

🎯 Single-stock spotlights

I’m watching $TSLA with elevated conviction. DivesTech says 2026 is shaping up as a historic year, pushing Tesla toward $800. Citi’s Scott Chronert says investors are paying forward for fundamentals, but the setup remains very constructive. Citi sits at the high end of the Street, calling for 3.2% earnings growth next year and expressing confidence in execution.

🤖 AI and tech catalysts

I’m aligned with Citi’s framework. Mag 7 leadership remains intact with $AAPL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META, and $TSLA. Bubble fears are loud, but Citi says that is the wrong framework. This is a boom, not a bubble. AI leaders now account for roughly 40% of the S&P 500 $SPX, with continued beat-and-raise behaviour expected. Sector broadening adds fuel rather than fragility.

📐 Technical setups

I’m watching compression across indices, volatility holding in the mid-teens, and dispersion widening beneath the surface. These conditions reward selectivity, flow awareness, and discipline. I’m carrying this framework forward into year-end and early January, because this is where rotation narratives are born.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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