To The Moon

I have always believed that Occidental Petroleum—Oxy—has been undervalued, but that belief did not come from a spreadsheet or a model alone. It grew slowly, the way convictions often do, through observation, patience, and a little bit of frustration. Yesterday was one of those days that made that belief feel especially vivid.

Occidental (OXY)

I was watching the market the way I often do—half out of habit, half out of hope. The earlier part of the day had that familiar energy: oil stocks were green across the board, lifted by headlines about Venezuela. News like that tends to ripple quickly through the energy sector, and sure enough, the usual names were moving. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Halliburton—stocks that the market seems eager to reward—were all climbing confidently.

Chevron (CVX)

Halliburton (HAL)

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Occidental joined them at first. Early in the day, Oxy was green too, moving as if it finally wanted to be counted among its peers. I remember thinking, maybe today is the day the market remembers you. There is something quietly satisfying about seeing a stock you believe in move in the "right" direction.

Occidental (OXY)

But markets rarely follow neat emotional arcs.

As the day went on, I checked back again. The green was fading. By the close, Oxy had turned red—decisively so. The final price was $41.23, down 2.71% on the day. Meanwhile, other oil stocks seemed to shrug off gravity. Chevron closed at $163.85, up 5.10%, pressing toward the top of its 52-week range of $132.04 to $168.96. Exxon Mobil (XOM) went even further, actually hitting a 52-week high during the session. It closed at $125.36, up 2.21% on the day, just a fraction below its 52-week peak of $125.93.

Oxy, in contrast, felt like it had been left behind at the station.

Its 52-week range—$34.78 to $53.20—tells a quieter story. At $41.23, it was nowhere near the high. It wasn't celebrating. It wasn't being chased. It was just… there. Waiting.

I didn't buy more shares, though the thought crossed my mind more than once. Not because I think Oxy isn't cheap enough—it is—but because investing is as much about personal constraints as it is about conviction. Capital is finite. Choices are real. I had recently bought SOXS, and that decision, right or wrong, meant I didn't have spare cash sitting around for opportunities like this one. That's one of the small, unspoken frustrations of investing: sometimes you see value clearly, but you can't act on it.

Still, watching Oxy trade lower didn't shake my belief. If anything, it made it stronger.

What struck me most wasn't just the price movement, but the contrast. The market was enthusiastic about oil—just not about this oil company. Energy stocks as a group were being celebrated, yet Occidental seemed stuck in a separate category, judged by a different standard. It reminded me that markets don't always price fundamentals evenly. They price narratives.

Right now, the dominant narrative favors the giants that are already winning. Exxon and Chevron feel safe, familiar—almost inevitable. Oxy, by contrast, feels more complicated. It carries history, debt concerns, and long-term strategic bets that are still unfolding. Berkshire Hathaway remains a major shareholder, but even that has not fully erased investor hesitation. And in markets, hesitation often translates into undervaluation.

As the trading day ended, I didn't feel regret about not buying. Instead, I felt something closer to calm. Conviction doesn't require immediate action to exist. Sometimes it just sits with you, reinforced by moments like this—when the market's behavior feels emotionally wrong, even if it looks rational on the surface.

Occidental may stay undervalued longer than I expect. The market has a way of testing patience. But days like yesterday remind me why I keep watching it. While others celebrate stocks at their 52-week highs, I find myself drawn to the one lagging behind, quietly absorbing bad sentiment while the sector itself remains strong.

Value rarely announces itself loudly. Often, it shows up as disappointment, as underperformance, as a red number on a day when everything else is green. And sometimes, believing in a stock like Oxy feels less like chasing returns and more like trusting my own judgment—waiting for the moment when the market finally sees what I've been seeing all along.