MSTR Undervalued or NOT? Ray Dalio Said Crypto Policy Window May Be Less Than One Year
Global index provider MSCI announced it will maintain its current treatment of so-called “crypto treasury companies.” This means firms like $Strategy(MSTR)$ — which hold Bitcoin as a core asset — are not being removed from major indexes, for now.
On the news, MSTR rebounded 6% this week. Some investors now argue: MSTR may already be near its downside floor.
However, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that crypto is being repriced by U.S. political cycles.
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Is Crypto Running Out of Time?
2026 U.S. midterm elections are approaching. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 79% probability that Democrats regain the House in 2026
If that happens, today’s pro-crypto policy momentum could fade quickly.
The most important variable is the CLARITY Act, which would define:
Crypto market structure; Exchange regulation; Institutional legitimacy for digital assets
Political gridlock could delay it until 2027 or later. Even now, policy execution is not frictionless. Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis who has also announced she will not seek re-election in 2026.
Another Shift: The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Has Broken
For the first time in 14 years, Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year halving cycle failed to repeat.
The year after the 2024 halving did not continue higher
2025 closed lower — unprecedented in prior cycles
This does not imply structural weakness. It reflects a regime change:
Bitcoin has shifted from a supply-shock-driven asset to a liquidity-sensitive, macro-driven asset.
Today, BTC responds more to: dollar liquidity & real rates, ETF flows, institutional allocation and global economic cycles
Leave your comments to win tiger coins!
“The single most important variable for crypto in the next year is ____.”
MSTR is undervalued/overvalued.
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The broken 4-year Bitcoin cycle confirms a regime shift, not structural weakness. Bitcoin has evolved from a supply-shock trade into a liquidity-driven asset, reacting more to real rates, ETF flows, and dollar liquidity than halvings. Sideways or corrective phases now reflect macro conditions rather than failure of the thesis.
On MSTR $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ , I view it as fairly valued relative to its role as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. MSTR may be near a floor if BTC stabilizes, but meaningful upside depends on renewed liquidity & sustained institutional inflows.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
Stuck around $90K–$91K right now, but holding support feels solid. Could grind up to $95K–$100K if momentum picks up and no big macro shocks hit.
MSTR: Trading near $160-ish, super leveraged to BTC. If Bitcoin perks up, expect a bounce toward $175–$190 — but watch for volatility.
MSTU: The 2x MSTR beast is in the low $10 range after getting wrecked. Wild swings ahead; good BTC days could spike it hard, bad ones crush it fast
Momentum & ETF flows will drive it more than news. Not financial advice — trade smart!
I think MSTR is overvalued
令牌化是一个革命性的过程，它将物理或数字资产的所有权转化为区块链上的“数字令牌”（一个安全、共享的数字账本）。
为什么要在2026年加速代币化？这是由摩根士丹利和贝莱德等机构巨头推动的。
1.即时流动性：代币化消除了缓慢的手动流程。
2.部分所有权：它使每个人都可以获得高价值资产。
3.自动化和效率：“令牌”是可编程的。这意味着他们可以自动支付股息或执行交易规则，而无需经纪人等昂贵的中介。
4.稳定币下沉：随着资产被代币化，它们通常需要稳定币来立即结算交易。
加密市场激动人心的时刻即将到来！
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @老虎船长
Regarding MSTR.US, it exhibits characteristics of both a potential value opportunity (trading at low P/B, high analyst targets) and a high-risk asset (eroding competitive advantage, financial losses, leverage, and regulatory overhang). Its valuation is intrinsically tied to Bitcoin's price but is also discounted by its operational risks and costs. Therefore, a simple "undervalued" or "overvalued" label is not appropriate; it is a specialized, high-beta instrument whose appeal depends heavily on an investor's specific views on Bitcoin's future, tolerance for leverage, and assessment of corporate execution risk.
(2) MSTR is undervalued because its massive Bitcoin treasury and recent MSCI inclusion reprieve offer unique leveraged exposure to an eventual supply crunch whereas MSTR is overvalued because its high debt-to-equity ratio and premium over net asset value make it dangerously vulnerable to political gridlock and Bitcoin price corrections
Crypto is no longer that separate an asset class like stock. It is still back to supply and demand and unlike stocks, crypto do not have fundamental growth potential. The value rose as it gets more scarce. Although it has some use cases, that has yet to fully take off to drive further demand and the price.
So, if the US government shifts gears to be less pro-crypto, sentiment and demand will drop. Crypto will be less in demand and liquidity will drop especially with the current already high price that can be prohibitive.
Given the volatile nature of crypto, I doubt institutional and retail investors will allocate large portions of their portfolio as many will also keep an eye on policy and the global economy.
I think MSTR is overvalued with current flux in policy and also the potential risk of it being delisted from MSCI which will force selling to re-balance the index.
MSTR is currently viewed as undervalued by those betting on a 2026 Bitcoin bull market, but fundamentally overvalued as a standalone software business. Its status was recently bolstered by an MSCI decision on January 6, 2026, to keep digital asset treasuries in its indexes, preventing billions in forced selling.
然而，橋水基金(Bridgewater Associates)創始人雷·達里奧(Ray Dalio)警告稱，美國政治週期正在對加密貨幣進行重新定價。