To The Moon

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, after the market close. Heading into the report, the stock has been a standout performer, rallying nearly 70% over the past year and recently hitting record highs near $340.

Here is a breakdown of what to expect, the key metrics to watch, and how Alphabet stacks up against AMD in the AI race.

Consensus Expectations (Q4 2025)

Wall Street has high expectations for Alphabet, driven by the rollout of Gemini 3 and strong Cloud adoption.

*Note: Range reflects differences in "Net Revenue" vs. "Total Revenue" reporting across analyst models.

Alphabet’s fiscal Q3 2025 earnings, reported in late October 2025, marked a historic turning point for the company. It was the first time Alphabet crossed the $100 billion quarterly revenue threshold, silencing skeptics who feared AI would disrupt its core Search business.

Q3 2025 Financial Summary

Key Highlights: The "AI Pivot" Works

Search Isn't Dying, It's Growing: CEO Sundar Pichai noted that AI Overviews and the new AI Mode (which surpassed 75 million daily active users) actually increased query volume, particularly among younger demographics.

Cloud Momentum: Google Cloud reached a massive $155 billion backlog (up 82% YoY). Management revealed that over 70% of existing Cloud customers are now using Alphabet’s AI products.

Efficiency Gains: Despite massive infrastructure spend, operating margins improved to 33.9% (excluding a one-time $3.5B European Commission fine). Alphabet is now using AI to write nearly 25% of its own software code.

Lessons Learnt from Guidance

1. The "CapEx Floor" has Raised

Alphabet raised its full-year 2025 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance to $91B–$93B (up from the previous $85B).

• The Lesson: For big tech, the cost of entry into the AI era is "permanently high." Investors have shifted from fearing high spending to rewarding it, provided it leads to Cloud acceleration.

2. Infrastructure is a Moat, Not Just a Cost

Google’s custom TPUs (Tensor Processing Units) are becoming a strategic advantage.

• The Lesson: While others rely solely on Nvidia, Alphabet’s "full-stack" approach (making the chip, the model, and the app) allows them to handle massive AI traffic with better margins than competitors.

3. Monetization Lag is Ending

For two years, the market asked, "When will AI pay off?"

• The Lesson: Q3 proved that AI monetization is happening now, not in the future. Revenue from products built on Gemini grew more than 200% YoY, signaling that the "experimental phase" of AI is officially over.

Key Metrics for Investors

Beyond the headline numbers, investors will focus on three "AI-reality" checks:

Google Cloud Backlog: In Q3, the backlog hit $155 billion. Investors want to see if this continues to grow, as it provides a clear roadmap for future revenue.

AI Monetization in Search: Watch for commentary on AI Overviews and AI Mode. Specifically, look for proof that these features are driving higher query volume and better ad conversion without eroding margins through higher compute costs.

2026 CapEx Guidance: Alphabet’s 2025 capital expenditure is expected to hit $91B–$93B. If management signals that spending is peaking or that returns are accelerating, it could trigger a "multiple expansion" (higher stock valuation).

Alphabet (GOOGL) Price Target

Based on 59 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Alphabet Class A in the last 3 months. The average price target is $330.29 with a high forecast of $400.00 and a low forecast of $185.00. The average price target represents a -3.90% change from the last price of $343.69.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities

Alphabet’s earnings often trigger a significant "binary" move.

The Expected Move: Options markets are pricing in a roughly ±6.4% move post-earnings.

Bull Case (Breakout): A beat-and-raise scenario could push the stock toward $350–$360. Support is currently holding near the $304 mid-January low.

Bear Case (The "Sell the News"): Given the stock is near all-time highs, even a "good" report could lead to a pullback if Cloud growth fails to exceed the bullish 36% whisper number.

Alphabet vs. AMD: AI & Cloud Growth

Comparing the two is a look at different parts of the AI food chain. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$

Sample Strategy (Post-Earnings/Near-Term):

Sell (Write): 1x $320 Put (collecting premium).

Buy (Protect): 1x $315 Put (limiting risk).

Ideal Setup: This trade is most effective if entered when implied volatility (IV) is high just before earnings, or immediately after a small "knee-jerk" dip if the fundamental story remains intact.

Goal: Alphabet stays above $320 by expiration. You keep the net credit received.

Risk Management: Your maximum loss is capped at the width of the spread ($5.00) minus the credit received.

Summary

Alphabet (GOOGL) reports its fiscal Q4 2025 results on Wednesday, February 4, 2026. After a record-breaking 2025 where shares surged nearly 70%, the market is looking for proof that Alphabet can maintain its momentum.

Q4 Earnings Analysis Summary

The "whisper number" for this quarter is high. Consensus estimates peg Revenue at ~$95B (+16% YoY) and EPS at $2.58 (+20% YoY).

The narrative has shifted from "Is Google losing to AI?" to "How fast can Google Cloud grow?" Analysts expect Cloud Revenue to hit ~$16.25B, a massive 35.9% jump. Key to this growth is the integration of Gemini 2.5/3.0 and Alphabet’s custom TPUs, which allow them to provide AI infrastructure more cost-effectively than rivals. However, with CapEx projected to hit a staggering $27B for the quarter, any sign of decelerating Cloud margins could lead to short-term volatility.

The "Expected Move"

Based on current options pricing, the market is anticipating a ±6.4% move (roughly $20–$22) by the end of the week.

• Bullish Breakout: A move above $345 could open the door to $360+.

• Support: Significant technical support sits near the $315 level (the 50-day moving average).

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think GOOGL would be able to show that it is growing as fast as it could.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.