To The Moon

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I see this earnings window as a critical positioning pivot across AI, software, and semiconductors, with both $PLTR and $AMD sitting at levels where expectations, liquidity, and options flow can rapidly reprice direction across markets. All eyes are now on $PLTR reporting after the bell, with $AMD following immediately after as momentum builds into its own print. 🔎 Why $PLTR matters right now • $PLTR trades below its 200DMA for the first time since Aug 2024 • Lowest close since July, signalling optimism has cooled • Positioning has materially reset after the selloff • Expectations remain elevated, yet risk reward improves after compression • Now trades like a core AI leader in this cycle This setup matters because asymmetric opportunities often appear when positioning resets while fundamentals continue accelerating. Wall Street tone has shifted constructive again: • William Blair upgraded $PLTR to Outperform • Citigroup upgraded $PLTR to Buy • Analysts highlight sustained AI momentum, margin expansion, and AIP’s enterprise impact as drivers for multi-year outperformance Consensus expectations cluster around: • Q4 revenue near $1.33B • Adjusted EPS around $0.23 • Continued enterprise AI demand driving deal velocity So expectations are still strong, but positioning is cleaner, which is often where powerful upside repricing begins. 📈 Historical earnings follow through Across the last eight earnings cycles: • Average earnings reaction +16.4% • T+3 continuation +23.1% • T+5 follow through +24.8% • T+10 extension +26.7% Importantly, current operating leverage and deal velocity are materially stronger than earlier cycles, increasing the probability that positive earnings reactions sustain momentum. 🐳 Options flow shows active positioning Flow into earnings remains aggressive: • ~$2M whale purchase of $PLTR 170 Calls expiring Feb 2026 • ~$6M of $PLTR 140 puts sold last Friday Call buying plus put selling often reflects confidence downside risk is limited, although such trades can also reflect hedging or volatility strategies. Still, positioning leans constructive into the event. 🏢 Fundamentals are accelerating, not stabilising Palantir is now tracking roughly $700M above earlier FY2025 revenue outlook, driven by explosive US Commercial execution: • US Commercial revenue +121% YoY • Total contract value +342% YoY • Remaining deal value +199% YoY • Customer count +45% YoY overall, even faster in US Commercial • 204 deals ≥$1M closed • 91 deals ≥$5M • 53 deals ≥$10M Retention strength is equally important: • Net dollar retention reached 134%, showing strong expansion from existing customers • Platform entrenchment deepens as deployments scale A key structural driver is the AIP Bootcamp model: • Rapid deployment programs demonstrate immediate enterprise value • Sales cycles compress significantly • Larger deployments accelerate across mission-critical operations Guidance now anchors at: • FY2025 revenue $4.396B to $4.400B, +53% YoY • US Commercial revenue above $1.433B, ≥104% YoY • Q4 revenue guided $1.327B to $1.331B, +61% YoY Profitability and cash generation remain elite: • Adjusted operating margins at 51% • Rule of 40 score at 114, top decile software territory • Adjusted free cash flow margins at 46% • FY2025 adjusted free cash flow guided $1.9B to $2.1B Government still provides strong ballast: • US Government revenue +52% YoY in Q3 Commercial remains the growth engine, but government diversification adds resilience to the overall model. This is no longer survival mode. Structural operating leverage is compounding as AIP becomes embedded across enterprises. Risks still matter: • Enterprise IT budgets remain sensitive to macro and rate environments • Large deal concentration introduces execution risk • Competitive pressure from open-source AI alternatives persists • Valuation compression risk remains if forward guidance weakens So delivery and forward visibility remain critical to sustaining momentum. ⚙️ $AMD earnings arrive immediately after $AMD reports Q4 earnings Tuesday, and momentum is already visible: • $AMD climbed +5% today as semiconductor stocks firm ahead of earnings • Consensus revenue expectations around $9.7B, +26% YoY • Adjusted EPS near $1.32, +21% YoY • Street sentiment remains bullish, with most analysts rating the stock a Buy Data centre and AI infrastructure remain the key drivers: • Record $4.3B data centre revenue last quarter • Instinct accelerator ramp continues building • EPYC processors gaining share across cloud and enterprise workloads • Analysts model >80% CAGR in data centre AI revenues over the next 3 to 5 years Street expectations continue to rise: • Analysts at firms including Cantor and RBC increasingly expect a beat-and-raise outcome • Guidance affirmation around accelerator ramps and share gains could trigger further upside repricing Options flow confirms active positioning: • ~$4M out-of-the-money call purchase ahead of earnings • Additional ~$3.8M call buyer stepping in $AMD remains central to diversified AI infrastructure exposure, so affirmation of share gains or AI compute expansion will influence semiconductor and broader tech liquidity flows. 📌 What decides the next move Three forces now dominate direction: • Expectations versus earnings delivery • Options flow forcing dealer hedging and gamma acceleration • Broader market liquidity supporting continuation or fade When positioning compresses and liquidity pockets build, reversals can become aggressive. With whales leaning into upside structures ahead of both prints, volatility expansion is highly likely. Earnings now determine whether AI leaders reclaim momentum or enter a deeper consolidation regime. This is not just another earnings week. It is a regime test for AI leadership. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars @TigerPicks @TigerObserver @TigerWire @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments