To The Moon

$超微电脑(SMCI)$

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is scheduled to report its FY2026 Q2 earnings after market close on February 3. The stock has been on quite a roller coaster over the past year—down more than 40% since the second half of last year, making this earnings report particularly important.

Market Expectations

• Expected revenue of approximately $10.3 billion

• Adjusted EPS around $0.49, with GAAP EPS near $0.39

• Nearly 100% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth and about 80% year-over-year growth

At first glance, the growth numbers look very strong. However, it’s worth noting that during the previous quarter, some large customers—especially hyperscale cloud providers—delayed revenue recognition due to late-stage design changes. Roughly $3 billion in revenue was pushed into this quarter, meaning the headline growth does not fully represent new demand acceleration.

What I’ll Be Focusing on in This Earnings Report

1. Orders and Demand: Is the Growth Sustainable? SMCI has disclosed a backlog exceeding $13 billion, suggesting that AI data center demand remains robust.

What matters most to me is:

• Management’s outlook on order trends over the next few quarters

• Whether supply bottlenecks are easing

• Whether the backlog continues to expand (which I view as more important than a single quarter’s revenue)

As long as the order book keeps growing, short-term revenue fluctuations are less critical in my view.

2. Gross Margin: Will It Keep Getting Thinner? This remains the biggest point of debate around SMCI.

The company has now gone through 10 consecutive quarters of gross margin decline, with market expectations for this quarter placing gross margins in the 6%–7% range. Even with AI demand outpacing supply, margins remain under pressure, highlighting intense competition and a business model still heavily weighted toward hardware and scale, with limited pricing power.

If management guidance continues to signal further margin deterioration, near-term share price pressure would not be surprising. On the other hand, any indication that margins are stabilizing—or a credible path toward improvement, even modest—could significantly ease market sentiment.

3. Product Mix Shift: Can It Become a Turning Point? SMCI’s push into DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions) is a key medium- to long-term variable. Management has previously indicated that these solutions could support gross margins of 10% or higher, well above current levels.

What I’m watching for:

• Whether DCBBS is starting to scale meaningfully

• Whether it can provide clear margin support over the next year

I’m not expecting a return to the high-margin environment of 2021, but if gross margins can sustainably stabilize around 10%, the quality of the business would look very different.

Overall, this Q2 earnings report is critical for SMCI—not only as a test of whether revenue growth is sustainable, but also as a key checkpoint for whether gross margins are approaching a bottom.

I’ll be closely following both the earnings release and the conference call, and I welcome discussion from fellow Tiger Community members in the comments. Let’s keep the conversation rational and data-driven.

This reflects my personal investment observations and does not constitute investment advice.