To The Moon

$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ is set to report its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, after the market close. The stock enters this print at a crossroads: while it remains the king of the mobile SoC (System on Chip) world, it is fighting a "show me" battle to prove its AI-driven diversification into PCs, automotive, and data centers.

Here is an analysis of the upcoming report and the "AI narrative" comparison with AMD.

Key Metrics to Watch (Fiscal Q1 2026)

The market is bracing for a "beat-and-lower" scenario, where current results look good, but future guidance reflects headwinds in the smartphone market.

Qualcomm’s Fiscal Q4 2025 earnings (reported November 5, 2025) were a masterclass in "operational excellence vs. headline noise." While the company beat on almost every key performance metric, the stock reaction was muted due to complex tax adjustments and a cautious long-term outlook.

Here is a summary of the results and the vital lessons for the upcoming Q1 2026 report.

Q4 2025 Financial Performance

Qualcomm delivered a "double beat," showing that its core business is healthy despite the transition away from being solely a "smartphone company."

Adjusted Revenue: $11.27 billion (Beat expectations of $10.77B), up 10% YoY.

Adjusted EPS: $3.00 (Beat expectations of $2.88).

The "Tax Noise": On a GAAP basis, Qualcomm reported a massive $3.12 billion net loss. This was not an operational failure; it was a $5.7 billion one-time non-cash charge due to new U.S. tax legislation ("One Big Beautiful Bill Act").

Segment Highlights:

• Handsets: $6.96B (+14% YoY), driven by strong demand for premium Android flagships.

• Automotive: $1.05B (+17% YoY)—crossing the billion-dollar quarterly milestone for the first time.

• IoT: $1.81B (+7% YoY), supported by the surge in AI smart glasses (Meta Ray-Bans).

2. The Guidance: Looking Toward Q1 2026

Qualcomm provided a stronger-than-expected outlook for the quarter they are about to report (Fiscal Q1 2026):

• Revenue Guidance: $11.8B – $12.6B (Midpoint $12.2B).

• EPS Guidance: $3.30 – $3.50.

The market initially cheered this, but the "lesson" came during the analyst Q&A.

The "Lessons Learnt" from Q4

If you are looking at the upcoming Q1 2026 earnings, these three lessons from the previous report are your roadmap:

Lesson A: The "Apple Cliff" is getting closer

Management was grilled on the timeline for Apple’s transition to internal modems. The lesson is that Qualcomm is essentially running a race against time. They must grow Automotive and IoT fast enough to replace the roughly 20% of revenue that will eventually vanish as Apple insources its chips. In the upcoming Q1 report, watch if non-Apple revenue continues to grow at the 18% pace seen in 2025.

Lesson B: Diversification is real, but Handsets still rule the mood

Even though Automotive hit a record $1B, the stock still trades based on "smartphone sentiment." In Q4, the stock didn't moon because investors are still worried about the Chinese handset market and Samsung’s potential move to its own "Exynos" chips.

The Takeaway: For the stock to break out of its $150–$160 range, Qualcomm needs to prove that AI PCs (Snapdragon X Elite) and Data Center Inference (AI 200/250) are contributing meaningful revenue, not just "pilot projects."

Lesson C: Cash is the Safety Net

Qualcomm generated a record $12.8 billion in Free Cash Flow in FY2025 and returned nearly all of it to shareholders ($12.6B via buybacks and dividends).

The Lesson: This makes QCOM a "value floor" stock. Even if growth is slow, the massive buyback program supports the share price. If the stock dips post-earnings, the company’s own buying power usually steps in to prevent a freefall.

Conclusion for the Q1 2026 Print

The Q4 2025 report proved that Qualcomm is executing perfectly on what they can control (diversification, margins, and cash return), but they are still struggling to escape the macro gravity of the smartphone cycle.

Qualcomm (QCOM) Price Target

Based on 30 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Qualcomm in the last 3 months. The average price target is $186.96 with a high forecast of $225.00 and a low forecast of $157.00. The average price target represents a 22.50% change from the last price of $152.62.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity

Qualcomm is currently trading at a forward P/E of ~12x–13x, which is a massive discount compared to the broader semiconductor index (~30x+).

The Bull Case (Post-Earnings Pop): If Qualcomm guides for a strong second half of 2026 driven by the AI250 server chips or a surge in Copilot+ PC adoption, the stock could see a "relief rally." Technical support is strong around $150–$153, while a breakout past $160 (the 200-day moving average) could target $180.

The Bear Case (Sell-off): Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald recently warned about Apple moving toward in-house modems and Samsung reducing its reliance on Qualcomm. If guidance for the March/June quarters is weak, the stock could retest the $140 level.

Implied Move: Options markets often price in a 5–7% swing for QCOM earnings.

QCOM vs. AMD: The AI Narrative

Investors often ask if Qualcomm can replicate AMD’s "AI growth." The answer is: They are playing different games.

AMD: The Data Center Powerhouse

AMD competes directly with NVIDIA in the data center training market (MI350 series). Their narrative is about market share capture in the high-margin, high-compute AI server space.

• Valuation: High (P/E ~35x).

• Growth: Aggressive revenue expansion (30%+ expected).

Qualcomm: The "Edge AI" & Efficiency Play

Qualcomm isn't trying to out-muscle NVIDIA or AMD in massive LLM training. Instead, they are the leader in Inference and Power Efficiency.

• Niche: Running AI locally on your laptop or phone without killing the battery. Their new AI 200/250 chips focus on "performance per watt" rather than raw horsepower.

• Growth Path: Much slower than AMD, but much more profitable at scale if "Edge AI" (on-device AI) becomes the standard.

Verdict: Qualcomm is a value-play for AI, while AMD is a growth-play. Qualcomm will only show "significant growth" if the market shifts its focus from training AI models (Data Centers) to using AI models (Handsets/PCs).

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing how the bulls are trying to come back above the 200-EMA level, and now QCOM is in a negative RSI momentum, which saw QCOM on a significant decline, but investors might be looking for its AI revenue timeline, if this upcoming can prove that they are on track, we might see a short rally surge up post earnings.

We need QCOM to clear the $164 level for some confidence for investors to look at getting in.

Summary

Qualcomm (QCOM) reports its Fiscal Q1 2026 results on Wednesday, February 4, 2026. The consensus outlook reflects a company performing well operationally but facing a significant "valuation ceiling" due to long-term client risks.

The Numbers & Expectations

• Revenue: Projected at $12.23 billion (+4.8% YoY).

• Earnings (EPS): Expected at $3.37 (slight YoY decline), within management’s guidance of $3.30–$3.50.

• Segment Targets: Investors are looking for Automotive to hit $1.1 billion and Handsets to reach $7.8 billion.

Key Strategic Analysis

Qualcomm is successfully diversifying, but the market is fixated on the "Apple Cliff." Analysts from Cantor Fitzgerald and Mizuho have recently turned cautious, warning that the 2026 transition—where Apple begins using its own modems—could lead to a 20% decline in Qualcomm's handset revenue.

To counter this, Qualcomm is pushing its Edge AI narrative. Unlike AMD, which sells massive chips for AI data centers, Qualcomm is betting on the Snapdragon X Elite for AI PCs and new AI250 accelerator cards for inference. For the stock to see a post-earnings pop, management must provide evidence that these new AI products are scaling fast enough to offset the eventual loss of Apple and Samsung business.

Short-Term Trading Outlook

The stock enters earnings with a 12.6x forward P/E, a massive discount to peers like Broadcom or AMD.

• The Opportunity: If Q1 results beat and management raises full-year guidance based on AI PC adoption, a "relief rally" toward $170-$180 is possible.

• The Risk: Recent downward revisions in EPS estimates and a "Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell)" suggest a high probability of a conservative outlook. Support sits at $150; a break below this on weak guidance could trigger a slide toward $140.

Lesson Learnt: High execution in Automotive and IoT is no longer enough; the market now demands a concrete "AI revenue" timeline to justify a higher multiple.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think QCOM would be able to show that it does have a concrete “AI revenue” timeline to provide a stronger multiple earnings beat.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.