To The Moon

$Amazon (AMZN) $It is expected to release the fourth quarter (Q4) financial report of fiscal year 2025 on February 5, 2026, Eastern Time. The market generally expects that the company's overall performance in the quarter is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by the holiday shopping season, improved e-commerce efficiency and continued expansion of cloud computing business. Analyst consensus shows that Amazon's Q4 revenue is expected to grow by about 10%-13% year-on-year, earnings per share (EPS) are close to the $2 level, and profitability continues to recover.

From the perspective of business structure, AWS is still the core of investors' attention. The market expects that with the continuous release of AI-related computing power demand and the gradual recovery of enterprise cloud spending, AWS revenue growth is expected to remain at around 20% or even higher. Its profit margin changes and management's guidance on future capital expenditures are regarded as The key highlight of this financial report. At the same time, Amazon's main e-commerce business is expected to maintain low-to-medium double-digit growth, and the advertising business will continue to be an important supplement to revenue and profits against the background of the rebound in merchant demand.

However, the market is also cautious about potential risks. On the one hand, large-scale AI infrastructure investment may put pressure on free cash flow and profit margins in the short term; On the other hand, the competition in the cloud computing field is still fierce, and the uncertainty of macroeconomic and consumption environment may also affect the performance of retail business. Overall, investors will focus on evaluating Amazon's profitability resilience in the AI and cloud computing investment cycle through this financial report, as well as management's latest judgment on the growth prospects for fiscal year 2026.

Amazon Bull Put Spread Strategy

1. Strategy structure

Investors in$Amazon (AMZN) $Build aBull Put Spread strategy.This strategy belongs to collecting premium, limited income and limited riskThe bullish strategy is suitable for judging AMZN before expirationMaintain above higher prices or only slight pullbackSituation.

1 ️ ⃣ Sell higher strike price Put (main source of income)

• Investor sells 1 strike priceK ₂ = $225 Put, charge premium$6.5/share

This Put is close to the current stock price and is the main source of revenue for Strategic premium. As long as the AMZN expiration price is above $225, this option will lapse and investors will retain their full premium.

2 ️ ⃣ Buy lower strike price Put (control downside risk)

• Investors buy 1 share strike priceK ₁ = $220Put, Pay premium$4.8/share

This Put is used to provide protection when the stock price drops sharply, locking in the maximum loss and avoiding the unlimited risks faced by selling Put naked.

3 ️ ⃣ Put-side net income (per share)The net premium charged by investors is: 6.5 − 4.8 =$1.7/share

Here's the strategy'sMaximum Available Yield。

2. Maximum profit

When AMZN Expiration Price≥ $225Time:

• Both Put are out-of-the-money

• All options lapsed

At this point the investor retains all net premium income:

• Maximum profit (per share) = $1.7

• Per contract (100 shares) = $170

📈 Occurrence conditions: AMZN expiration price ≥ $225

3. Maximum loss

When AMZN Expiration Price≤ US $220Time:

• Both 225 Put sold and 220 Put bought are in the money

• Strike spreads are fully locked

Calculation method:

• Strike spread width = 225 − 220 =$5

• Maximum loss (per share) = Strike spread − Net premium = 5 − 1.7 =$3.3/share

• Maximum loss per contract = $330

📉 Occurrence conditions: AMZN expiration price ≤ $220

4. Break-even point

The formula for calculating the break-even point is: Sell Put strike price − Net premium = 225 − 1. 7 =$223.3

Maturity judgment rules:

• AMZN > 223.3 → earnings

• AMZN = 223.3 → No Profit, No Loss

• AMZN < 223.3 → Loss

5. Strategic characteristics and applicable situations

Strategy Characteristics

• UnambiguousBullish (bearish or slightly rising)strategy

• Belonging toPremium receivedStructure, time value is beneficial to investors

• The maximum profit and maximum loss are determined when the position is opened

• Compared with selling Put naked,Risks are significantly controllable

Applicable situationsWhen investors judge:

• Amazon may be in a volatile market before and after earnings reportStrong support below

• Even with a callback,The probability of breaking below $220 is low

• Hope inDon't chase the rise, don't buy stocks directlyIn the case of, obtain stable income through time value