To The Moon

At the beginning of 2026, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission announced in its public statement and restructuring outline that it aims to shorten the approval cycle for new nuclear reactors to approximately 18 months. The policy discussion also cited growing electricity demand from data centers and other high-energy-consuming industries as a key backdrop for capacity expansion.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy continues to support nuclear power through loan guarantees and demonstration projects, including advanced reactors and life extensions or restarts of existing plants.

From a year-to-date total return perspective in 2026, nuclear-related ETFs have delivered notable gains: $Global X Uranium ETF(URA)$ is up approximately 28.5%, leading the group; $VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF(NLR)$ has risen about 19.9%, showing relatively steady performance; and $Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF(NUKZ)$ has gained around 13.3%, maintaining double-digit returns.

AI’s impact on electricity demand is first reflected in scale. Since 2024, several technology companies have planned next-generation data centers in North America with single-site electricity requirements of 300–500MW. Some projects are designed directly at the 1GW level and require continuous year-round operation. This level of consumption is significantly higher than that of traditional industrial parks.

The shift in electricity demand is already reflected in industry data. BloombergNEF estimates that by 2035, U.S. data center electricity demand will exceed 100GW, more than doubling current levels—equivalent to adding dozens of large, stable power generation facilities. This growth is primarily driven by AI training and inference workloads.

According to Nikki Hsu, future new power capacity additions will still be dominated by wind and solar, with total development between 36.5–46.5GW projected for 2024–2027. However, the structure remains heavily tilted toward intermittent energy. Given that AI data centers require continuous and stable power supply, renewable expansion alone may struggle to meet baseload demand. Nuclear power, with its high utilization rate and stable output, therefore sees its strategic value further elevated.

Nuclear power has thus regained attention. A single large nuclear unit typically provides stable output of 1–1.6GW, can operate at high load over extended periods, and offers relatively stable generation costs during operation—making it well suited to supply large data centers with continuous electricity.

From a capacity perspective, forecasts indicate that in the coming years additions are likely to exceed retirements, with a gradual net growth trend emerging by 2030. The supply side is shifting from prior contraction toward potential expansion, providing incremental support for long-term stable electricity demand.

Corporate decisions have already materialized. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ have in recent years signed long-term power purchase agreements tied to nuclear plants to support their cloud computing and AI data center operations, with contract durations typically spanning 15–20 years.

In 2025, the AI index rose 35%, while transition metals surged 97% and decentralized energy climbed 52%. However, when AI enters a downturn phase, the beta (systemic risk sensitivity) of decentralized energy increases from 0.78 to 1.27, and transition metals from 0.42 to 0.86, meaning volatility in these sectors can be amplified during AI pullbacks.

Nuclear power-related equities have also responded to AI-driven demand. From January to June 2024, after Microsoft and Amazon announced nuclear power supply arrangements, Constellation Energy rose approximately 80% and Vistra gained around 130%, compared with a roughly 17% increase in the S&P 500 over the same period.

Related ETF Overview:

$Global X Uranium ETF(URA)$ manages approximately $7.3 billion in assets with an expense ratio of 0.69%. Its largest holdings include $Cameco(CCJ)$ (about 23.27%), $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ (about 7.75%), $Uranium(UEC)$ (about 6.81%), and $Nexgen Energy Ltd.(NXE)$ (about 5.98%). The portfolio is heavily concentrated in uranium producers and upstream nuclear fuel companies, providing direct exposure to uranium price movements and supply-side dynamics within the nuclear industry.

$VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF(NLR)$ manages approximately $4.8 billion in assets and charges an expense ratio of 0.50%. Its largest holding is $Cameco(CCJ)$ at about 9.00%, followed by $Denison Mines(DNN)$ (about 7.80%). The portfolio spans uranium producers, nuclear technology providers, utilities, and fuel-cycle companies, offering diversified exposure across the nuclear value chain rather than concentrating solely on upstream mining.

$Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF(NUKZ)$ has approximately $843 million in total assets and an expense ratio of 0.85%. Its largest holding is $Cameco(CCJ)$ , with a weight of about 10.68%, one of the world’s major uranium producers. Overall, NUKZ is positioned around the nuclear renaissance theme, covering uranium resources, nuclear plant operators, and equipment manufacturers. Its structure is more diversified and oriented toward the broader nuclear industry value chain.