To The Moon

$英伟达(NVDA)$

NVIDIA recently disclosed its latest quarterly operating data and Q1 2026 earnings guidance. From core financial metrics to its AI ecosystem layout, the company has demonstrated remarkable resilience. As the undisputed leader in the global AI chip sector, NVIDIA achieved double growth in revenue and profit while maintaining high-level profitability. Combined with multiple industry tailwinds, its long-term growth trajectory has become increasingly clear.

I. Performance Review: Record Growth Meets "Textbook" Cost Management

NVIDIA's operating performance this quarter remained stellar, with profitability holding at an unshakeable, top-tier industry level.

• Aggressive Top-Line Momentum: Total revenue reached $68.127 billion, a staggering 73.2% increase YoY and 19.5% QoQ. Non-GAAP diluted EPS landed at $1.62, beating market expectations by 8%, proving the company’s sustained ability to deliver on the bottom line.

• Rock-Solid Gross Margins: Despite the rising costs of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) across the industry, non-GAAP gross margins hit 75.2%, with an operating margin of 67.7%. Leveraging extreme supply chain bargaining power and cost control, NVIDIA has maintained ultra-high profit cushions.

• Data Center Engine Leading the Charge: Core Data Center revenue hit $62.314 billion, accounting for 91.5% of total revenue and beating expectations by 2.9%. Within this, networking business surged 27.6% YoY, emerging as a "dark horse" segment. Additionally, Professional Visualization revenue reached $1.321 billion, smashing expectations by nearly 70%. While the Gaming sector was slightly weighed down by supply chain constraints and Automotive fell marginally short of expectations, their impact on the overall portfolio remained limited.

• Enhanced Operational Efficiency: Days Sales of Inventory (DSI) dropped to 115 days (down 4 days QoQ), and the Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) for receivables fell to 51 days (down 2 days QoQ). Even as the company scales rapidly, its quality of operation is steadily improving.

II. Q1 Guidance: Dismissing Market Doubts with Strong Margin Support

The company’s Q1 2026 guidance has effectively quelled market concerns regarding an "AI peak."

• Undiminished Revenue Momentum: The midpoint of the revenue guidance is $78 billion, exceeding market expectations by 8.1%. This implies that even against a high base, NVIDIA can still achieve 77% YoY growth.

• Locked-in Cost Advantages: Non-GAAP gross margin guidance is set at 75.0%. By securing long-term memory procurement agreements in advance, the company has effectively hedged against HBM price hikes. It is expected that gross margins for the full year will remain stable in the mid-70% range. Furthermore, Q1 non-GAAP EPS guidance is significantly ahead of market consensus, providing a high degree of certainty for earnings realization.

III. Core Moat: Triple Tailwinds from Hardware to Ecosystem Lock-in

NVIDIA's ability to consistently outperform the industry lies in its "Solid Triangle": industry trends, customer demand, and technical barriers.

1. Increased Capex on the Industry Side: Global supercomputing providers and Silicon Valley giants—Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta—have further revised their 2026 Capex forecasts upward, with signals for expansion already appearing for 2027.

2. Expanding Incremental Markets: Demand from non-traditional AI customers is becoming clearer. As leading AI startups finalize funding rounds, their subsequent hardware procurement plans are solidifying, opening a "second growth curve" for NVIDIA.

3. Integrated Hardware-Software Barriers: NVIDIA is not only widening the generational gap with new architectures but is also deeply binding customers through strategic investments. For instance, its $10 billion strategic investment in Anthropic includes agreements for underlying hardware usage. Similarly, its collaboration with Meta to deploy large-scale servers and develop CPUs ensures long-term orders are locked in on the demand side.

IV. Potential Risks

Despite the compelling logic, we must remain sensitive to potential downside risks given the historically high valuation.

• The Data Center business is highly dependent on the Capex of Big Tech firms. Any slowdown in AI infrastructure expansion would be the primary threat to performance.

• Supply chain issues surfaced in the Gaming segment this quarter. If production capacity constraints spread to core chip deliveries, overall growth could be dragged down.

• Given the massive current market capitalization, even a minor "miss" in growth expectations could trigger short-term valuation corrections and capital volatility.

Note: All analyses in this article are based on the company's publicly disclosed operating data. This content is for information sharing and strategic exchange only and does not constitute any investment advice.