To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 02Mar2026)

Global and U.S. PMI Data

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February is forecasted at 51.2, signalling expansion and growth in global manufacturing sectors. This positive indicator suggests favourable conditions for the overall market. Similarly, the S&P Global Services PMI forecast stands at 52.3, reflecting growth in the global services sector and providing a constructive outlook for the global economy.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to reach 51.7, indicating expansion and growth within the manufacturing sector. However, the ISM Manufacturing Prices forecast is 60.6, which points to inflationary pressures as manufacturers are likely to pass increased costs on to consumers. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices report is due in the coming week, with the previous figure at a concerning 66.6, suggesting rapid growth in non-manufacturing prices and additional inflationary pressure that may eventually affect end customers. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 53.5, suggesting continued growth in the services sector, which is a positive sign.

Commodity and International Outlook

It is important to monitor crude oil inventories, as these provide insight into how producers are planning in anticipation of consumer demand. A larger-than-expected drawdown of crude oil inventories would suggest a more bullish sentiment among producers.

China’s Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to be released soon, with a forecast of 49.1. This figure indicates contraction in China’s manufacturing sector and is a cause for concern.

Labor Market Indicators

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for February is forecasted at 49,000, a significant increase from the previous report of 22,000. This is considered bullish news, barring any revisions to the data. Initial jobless claims are forecasted to reach 215,000, an important metric for the Federal Reserve’s decision-making regarding interest rates in the American economy.

Non-farm payrolls for February will be released with a forecast of 58,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, unchanged from the previous month. These are crucial data points for the Federal Reserve and may cause market volatility if the actual figures differ from the forecasts. Average hourly earnings are forecasted to grow 0.3% month-on-month for February, indicating continued wage growth. Whether this growth is sufficient to outpace inflation remains to be seen and will require ongoing monitoring.

Consumer and Retail Data

Retail sales month-on-month for January are forecasted at -0.3%, suggesting a seasonal decline likely due to the aftermath of the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Leaders also pay attention to core retail sales month-on-month for January, which is forecasted at 0%, indicating no growth. While this may seem average, it is noteworthy that core retail sales are not experiencing contraction.

Earnings Calendar (02Mar2026)

I am interested in the earnings of Target, CrowdStrike, Sea, Broadcom, Costco, Kroger and Kura.

Let us look at Sea Limited.

Stock Performance and Valuation

Sea Limited ended the most recent trading day with a closing price of $108.45. Reviewing the one-year price chart reveals a consistent downtrend, which has contributed to a decline of 14.8% over the past year. From a technical analysis standpoint, the recommendation is to strongly sell, reflecting the persistent negative momentum in the stock price. In contrast, analyst sentiment indicates a strong buy recommendation, with a price target set at $180.54. This target suggests a potential upside of more than 66% compared to the last closing price, raising the question of whether the stock deserves renewed consideration. Despite an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.41, Sea Limited’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeds 57, implying that the company is trading at a premium and may be considered overpriced even at its current valuation.

Five-Year Financial Performance

Examining Sea Limited’s annual financial results over the past five years demonstrates substantial growth. For the financial year ending December 31, 2021, the company reported revenue of $9.9 billion. The trailing twelve months (TTM) figure shows total revenue rising to $21 billion, highlighting remarkable progress during this period.

Profitability Trends

Gross profit also increased significantly, with the year ending 2021 showing $3.9 billion and the TTM gross profit reaching $9.4 billion. This indicates robust and sustained growth in profitability. Operating income for 2021 reflected a $1.5 billion loss, but the TTM figure has shifted to an operating profit of $1.7 billion. Sea Limited has reported net profits for the last three financial years.

This turnaround is further evidenced by the company’s EPS, which started at -$3.84 in 2021 and has now improved to a positive $2.40 in the TTM. EPS has remained positive for the past three years, demonstrating continued earnings progress.

Current Outlook

Whether Sea Limited has reached critical mass or is optimising its revenue and managing costs more effectively, it is reassuring to observe ongoing profitability. However, the company’s valuation remains elevated, and it warrants careful monitoring moving forward.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Analysis

Sea Limited’s balance sheet reveals steady and significant growth in total assets over the past four years. In 2020, the company reported total assets of $10.4 billion, which increased consistently, reaching $22.6 billion in 2024. This upward trend in assets is mirrored by the company’s current liabilities, which rose from $4.6 billion in 2020 to $11.2 billion in 2024, indicating an expansion in the scale of operations and obligations over this period.

Examining Sea Limited’s cash flow statements, cash flow from operations has demonstrated robust growth, rising from $555 million in 2020 to $3.2 billion in 2024. This improvement suggests enhanced efficiency in generating cash from core business activities. However, the company’s cash flow from investing activities has experienced a significant drawdown, moving from $555 million in 2020 to $5 billion in 2024, which may reflect substantial investments in future growth or capital expenditures. On a positive note, cash flow from financing activities has been on a downward trajectory, decreasing from $3.7 billion in 2020 to $1.6 billion in 2024, indicating a reduced reliance on external financing sources over time.

News Summary (Quarterly - from Grok)

Sea Limited (SE) is entering March 2026 in a strong position, balancing aggressive growth with consistent profitability. The company is set to report its FY2025 results on March 3, with analysts expecting revenue near $6.4 billion.

Key highlights from the last three months include:

• Shopee (E-commerce): Maintains a dominant 52% market share. A recent $38.46 million investment in Singaporean SMEs and a strategic AI partnership with Google have boosted purchase conversions and logistics efficiency.

• Garena (Gaming): Free Fire remains a powerhouse. The 2026 Esports Roadmap was recently unveiled, expanding global tournament structures to sustain high user engagement.

• SeaMoney (Fintech): This remains the fastest-growing segment, with a $7.9 billion loan book, though investors are closely monitoring credit risks.

With a $1 billion share buyback in progress, management is signalling high confidence as the stock undergoes a market re-rating.

Earnings Call

The EPS and Revenue forecast for the coming earnings are $0.802 and $6.49 Billion, respectively. Given the above information, Sea Limited can be an interesting option that demands more research.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (02Mar2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting above the 50-day & 200-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the short and long-term outlook. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook. The 3 lines have converged, and we may see a trend change.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.07. This reading indicates that there is more buying momentum than selling, especially after crossing the middle “0” line.

More Technical Analysis

A review of technical analysis for the S&P 500 on the daily interval currently suggests a sell rating. Out of the various indicators evaluated, six are issuing a buy signal, whereas thirteen are recommending a sell.

This divergence is further highlighted by the moving averages: most long-term moving averages continue to support a buy rating, signalling underlying strength in the longer trend. In contrast, all of the shorter-term moving averages have shifted to a sell rating, reflecting recent downward momentum in the index. This mixed picture indicates caution may be warranted in the near term, as short-term signals are outweighing longer-term optimism.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The CNN Fear and Greed Index currently registers a score of 43, indicating that market sentiment is predominantly influenced by fear. This level suggests that investors are showing caution, and fear is playing a significant role in recent market movements. The index, which measures various market indicators to gauge overall investor emotion, reflects a cautious environment where negative sentiment may be impacting trading decisions and contributing to the broader market outlook.

Weighing the above, I lean towards a “bearish” outlook. There is a potential for a market trend reversal.

News and my thoughts from the past week (02Mar2026)

China now generates 40% more electricity than the US and EU combined.

Electricity output is the single best proxy for industrial capacity - Elon Musk

Israeli media says that after Khamenei, our next target is Tayyip Erdogan (Turkey). - X user Globe Observer

South Korea’s stock market is a $40 billion leverage bomb waiting to go off. The KOSPI is up 177% in the last year. A 177% domestic rally relying almost entirely on semiconductors. $40B parked in highly leveraged U.S. tech ETFs. Volatility rising right alongside market highs. - X user Bull Theory

“AI does not reduce work. It intensifies it.“ Powerful new Harvard Business Review study. - X user Rohan Paul

The Pentagon just blacklisted one of America’s most valuable AI companies. For refusing to build surveillance tools aimed at American citizens. Hours later, its biggest rival OpenAI quietly signed the deal of the decade. - X user Stock Market News

Anywhere from $40 billion to $150 billion of leveraged loans packaged into US collateralized loan obligations could be disrupted by the AI boom, according to JPMorgan

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY'S OPERATING PROFIT FALLS NEARLY 30% ON INSURANCE UNDERWRITING - Investing

Apollo announced that its private credit fund, MidCap Financial Investment Corp. (MFIC), has reduced its dividend and re-evaluated its asset values, "due to challenges in certain segments of its loan portfolio." - Zero Hedge

Jane Street, Citadel Securities, Hudson River Trading, Susquehanna, Virtu, Flow Traders, and Jump. That's the Justice League of "oops we accidentally crashed your favorite coin at 10:00 AM ET." They're not even hiding it anymore. India fined Jane Street $567M for essentially doing the same thing there. The business model is: create chaos, profit from chaos, call it "liquidity provision." - X user The Block Source

U.S. margin debt just hit $1.28 TRILLION. Last year alone +$342B. +36%. - X user Alex Mason

UBS DOWNGRADES THE US STOCK MARKET. HERE’S WHAT HAS THE INVESTMENT BANK WORRIED – CNBC

PRIVATE CREDIT DEFAULT RATES COULD SURGE TO 15%, UBS WARNS — HIGHER THAN DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) dropped again in January, to the lowest level in 12 YEARS. The drawdown since the 2021 peak has been 18%, the biggest since the Great Financial Crisis. Such a drop has never been seen outside of recessions and is even bigger than in 2001. Why has the LEI collapsed so sharply? 1) Manufacturing recession; 2) Weak consumer expectations for business conditions; 3) Deteriorating job market - X user Global Markets Investor

The Department of Homeland Security said Sunday that the Global Entry program would be shut down as long as the partial government shutdown remains in effect. - AP News

‘Money's moving out of tech’: Wall Street weighs stock market winners amid the AI scare trade - Yahoo Finance

OpenAI could face bankruptcy within two years. With paid subscribers remaining at only about 5% of total users, OpenAI faces a real risk due to billions in operating costs against a limited return and a continued reliance on funding and investments. - China Pulse

My Investing Muse

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

• 26% OF THE 7.5 MILLION UNEMPLOYED AMERICANS ACTIVELY SEEKING WORK HAVE BEEN JOB HUNTING FOR MORE THAN SIX MONTHS, ACCORDING TO THE FINANCIAL TIMES. - First Squawk

• BIG BANKRUPTCIES HAVE CLIMBED TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE COVID, ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG.

• California’s wine industry is facing a cascade of economic and market pressures, leading even long-standing labels and industry giants like Gallo to shut down production - MacroEdge

• "Americans are defaulting at a crisis-level pace," per Yahoo Finance.

• Block to cut about 4,400 employees - MacroEdge

• Papa John's plans to close 300 of its restaurants by the end of 2027 as it moves to cut costs. -CBS

• CNBC is cutting some newsroom jobs in a reorganisation meant to unify its digital and TV news operations - MacroEdge

• AMC Theatres plans to close more locations as it continues to grapple with sluggish post-pandemic box office numbers, company executives warned this week - MacroEdge

• Ebay to cut 800 jobs - Kalshi

• GEN Z IS FACING A JOB-MARKET BLOODBATH, ACCORDING TO FORTUNE

• Credit-card and auto loan delinquencies have hit 12.7% and 5.2%, per Bloomberg.

• TrueCar lays off 30% of staff amid reorganisation - MacroEdge

• Judge gives UPS green light for $150,000 buyouts to drivers, estimates that 10,000 drivers could resign - MacroEdge

• 42% OF RECENT COLLEGE GRADUATES ARE UNDEREMPLOYED — THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2020, PER FORBES

• Panasonic said to layoff 12,000 employees - MacroEdge

• 722 banks reported unrealised losses exceeding 50% of their capital - US FED

My Final Thoughts

India's unemployment tsunami will hit in a matter of years when AI can replace of the entry level white collar work. When the jobs are "relocated" from the West to India, it is not a permanent but a temporary case. Workers will need to create value, fighting innovations and AI to create value in the market. There will be a major reset, but there will also be new roles created. It is time to learn and pivot.

Insider Selling and Market Sentiment

While much of the market’s attention is focused on the ongoing conflict involving Iran, there are other critical factors to monitor. Notably, corporate insiders have continued to sell off their holdings. Insider selling can signal various motivations, and while individuals typically purchase shares for a single reason—confidence in the future of the business—they may sell for a multitude of reasons. However, the recent lack of insider buying is notable and raises questions about whether this trend is merely profit-taking or if it reflects broader concerns about the outlook for individual businesses or the economy as a whole.

Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East

Turning back to the conflict in the Middle East, the prospect of a prolonged military engagement poses unique challenges for the United States, particularly in terms of the strain it places on supply chains and manufacturing capacity. Reports from Israeli news agencies have suggested that Turkey could be the next target in the escalation, which adds to the regional instability. There is growing uncertainty over whether the United States will be drawn into an extended conflict, and concerns are mounting about the spillover effects of Iran’s actions on neighbouring countries. Such instability may prompt businesses to relocate operations out of the region, with Southeast Asia—especially Singapore—emerging as a potential beneficiary, particularly in the growth of family offices. The key question remains whether additional countries will become involved in the conflict or if a path to peace will soon emerge.

Economic Data and Market Implications

Recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data point to persistent inflationary pressures faced by producers. This, combined with a quarterly GDP growth rate of just 1.4%—a significant drop from the previous quarter’s 4.4%—raises concerns for the market, particularly as more news of layoffs is anticipated. At the same time, advancements in agentic AI technologies are garnering considerable interest, with expectations that these innovations could be deflationary as automation reduces resource needs and reallocates work. Despite these efficiencies, there are legitimate concerns regarding data privacy, security, governance, and ethics. The increasing autonomy of agentic AI systems means that robust ethical oversight and governance frameworks are essential to prevent unintended consequences, such as data loss caused by insufficient safeguards or poorly defined instructions.

Broader Societal and Market Issues

Beyond economic and geopolitical developments, there are ongoing societal concerns, such as the unresolved issues surrounding the Epstein file, with public demand for accountability and further investigation remaining high. In the United States, persistent affordability challenges are undermining confidence in the current systems of capitalism and democracy. Amid these uncertainties and the ongoing noise generated by military conflict, it is important to continue monitoring market developments—particularly the rapid evolution of the private capital market, illustrated by recent activities in firms such as MFS and Blue Owl.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

(Written by me, refined by AI).

@TigerStars

$Sea Ltd(SE)$

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$