To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 09Mar2026)

Housing Market Data

Existing home sales data for February will be released this week. The forecast stands at 3.9 million units. This figure serves as a good reference for evaluating the health and trends within the home real estate market.

Inflation Reports, PCE Data and the Federal Reserve’s Perspective

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, along with the Core CPI, will be published in the coming week. The forecast for month-on-month CPI growth is 0.2% for February. If the actual CPI growth deviates from this forecast, increased volatility can be expected in the financial markets.

The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for January is scheduled for this week. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, PCE is closely watched and is likely to influence market movements and volatility, especially ahead of upcoming interest rate decisions.

Energy Sector Indicators

Crude oil inventories, which were previously reported at 3.475 million, will be updated. This data point provides a useful gauge for understanding how oil producers are anticipating demand in the market.

Bond Market Events

Results from the 10-year note auction and the 30-year bond auction will also be released during the week. These outcomes are crucial for the stock market, as higher note or bond rates may encourage a shift of funds from equities into bonds, indirectly impacting overall stock market performance due to changing capital flows.

Durable Goods Orders

Durable goods orders for January will also be announced. This data serves as a key indicator of consumer consumption within the United States and provides insights into broader economic trends.

Labor Market Insights

The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for January will be published in the coming week. As a critical data point related to employment in the U.S., this report, together with inflation data, will provide the Federal Reserve with important references necessary for making future interest rate decisions. The release of these numbers is also likely to introduce some volatility into the markets.

Happy International Women’s Day

On this International Women’s Day, we from Pukka Solutions extend our gratitude and appreciation to all women. We salute your invaluable service and sacrifice, which are the foundation of our families and economy. Your resilience, dedication, and contributions shape our world and inspire us all. Thank you for your unwavering commitment and for being an enduring source of strength and inspiration. Let us celebrate, encourage and salute the women in our lives.

Earnings Calendar (09Mar2026)

In the coming week, several notable companies are scheduled to report their earnings. Among the most anticipated are ZIM Shipping Line, Hewlett-Packard, NIO, Oracle, and Adobe. Each of these companies is expected to provide valuable insights into its respective sectors and the broader market.

Spotlight on Oracle

Oracle stands out as a major player in the artificial intelligence ecosystem, collaborating and competing with industry leaders such as Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Softbank. The company’s performance and strategic direction are closely watched due to its integral role in advancing AI technologies.

Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment

Over the past year, Oracle’s stock price has declined by 0.4%. Technical analysis currently offers a neutral recommendation. However, analysts maintain a buy rating for the stock. With a price target of $257.29, there is a potential upside of 68.21%. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 29.4, suggesting the stock may be slightly expensive at the current levels.

Financial Highlights

Oracle has demonstrated steady growth over the last five years. Revenue increased from $40.4 billion in 2021 to $57.3 billion in 2025. Gross profit rose from $32.6 billion in 2021 to $40.4 billion in 2025, while operating income grew from $15.6 billion in 2021 to $17.9 billion in 2025.

Balance Sheet Overview

The company’s current assets decreased from $55.5 billion in 2021 to $24.5 billion in 2025, while total assets expanded from $131 billion in 2021 to $168 billion in 2025. Current liabilities increased from $24.1 billion in 2021 to $32.6 billion in 2025, and total liabilities rose from $125 billion to $147 billion over the same period. Notably, total debt grew from $84.2 billion in 2021 to $108.9 billion in 2025, representing a 15.4% increase from 2024 to 2025.

Oracle News (summarised by Gemini)

Oracle is currently constructing large-scale AI data centres in partnership with OpenAI, a deal reportedly valued at $300 billion. To fund this expansion and meet high demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), the company announced plans in February to raise up to $50 billion through debt and equity.

To prioritise AI investments, reports in early March suggest Oracle is planning to cut thousands of jobs—potentially up to 30,000 in the long term. These layoffs target divisions made redundant by AI or those outside the core cloud growth strategy.

AI Native Database: In January, Oracle released AI Database 26ai, integrating agentic AI and vector search directly into the kernel.

The EPS and revenue forecasts are $1.70 and $16.92B, respectively.

With the above results, I prefer to monitor the stock for now. Will Oracle be the one to prick the AI bubble?

Market Outlook of S&P500 (09Mar2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated below the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bearish trend in the short term, and a bullish long-term outlook. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook. The 3 lines have converged, and we may see a trend change.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.23. This reading indicates that there is more buying momentum than selling, especially after crossing the middle “0” line.

More Technical Analysis

A review of technical analysis for the S&P 500 on the daily interval currently suggests a “Strong Sell” rating. Out of the various indicators evaluated, 3 are issuing a buy signal, whereas 16 are recommending a sell.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

CNN Fear & Greed Index shows that the week ended with a score of 27 that points to “Fear” dominating market sentiment.

Weighing the above, I lean towards a “bearish” outlook.

News and my thoughts from the past week (09Mar2026)

Two of the world's largest funds are limiting the amount you can withdraw. BlackRock froze requests for withdrawals of $1.2 billion from its private credit fund. Investors in the BlackRock fund with assets of $26 billion requested the withdrawal of 9.3% of their funds. BlackRock refused, limiting the withdrawal to 5%. The Blackstone fund with assets of $82 billion recorded a record number of requests for withdrawals in the same week. Blackstone had to invest $400 million of its own funds to cover the costs of withdrawals. Similar problems exist with the Blue Owl OBDC II fund, where withdrawals have been suspended. - X user Cha Bowes

Kuwait Petroleum declares force majeure on oil sales - MacroEdge

Insider sales continue

Deutsche warns the spike in the jet fuel crack spread is becoming an “existential threat” to U.S. airlines. The note says that without near-term relief, airlines could be forced to ground 1000s of aircraft, and some of the industry’s weakest carriers may have to halt operations. - X user Wall St Engine

Indonesia suspends participation in Trump Board of Peace following Middle East conflict - MacroEdge

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta just downgraded GDP estimate for Q1 by a FULL 1% from 3.2% to 2.1% OVERNIGHT.

US private credit DEFAULT rates could reach levels not seen since the Financial Crisis. In a worst-case scenario of rapid AI disruption, UBS projects US private credit defaults could hit 14–15%. - X user First Squawk

ANTHROPIC CEO WARNS: THE COMPANY IS NO LONGER SURE CLAUDE ISN’T CONSCIOUS.

My Investing Muse

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

• U.S. layoffs are now at numbers worse than the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. - X user The Patriotic Blonde

• South Korean battery maker SK On lays off 958 US employees - Reuters

• 92,000 people just lost their jobs in one month in The US. Just a regular Tuesday in 2026. And Anthropic released a report this morning saying the jobs AI can't kill are plumbers, farmers, and electricians. Your office job is not safe. The economy is confirming what AI companies already told you. The guy who learned to fix pipes in 6 months has more job security than you. - X user Tuki

• Morgan Stanley laying off 2,500 employees across all divisions amid economic challenges - MacroEdge

• Amazon cuts jobs in robotics division - MacroEdge

• Kuehne+Nagel to layoff 2,000 workers amid weak demand, AI push - MacroEdge

• Goldman Sachs: "Over the long term, our baseline estimate is that 6-7% of workers (equivalent to 11 million jobs) will be displaced by AI automation."

Layoffs continued into the week, and there are more expected in the coming week. It can be a difficult season for those affected.

Gulf War

White House official Jarrod Agen finally admitted the true reason for this war: “Get all of the oil out of the hands of ‘terrorists’.” Finally, the White House is saying the truth. Pisses me off when they blame Iran’s nuclear ambitions or call Iran a threat to the U.S. - X user Mario Nawfal

Data centres are easy targets in the Gulf. What about undersea fibre optics cables? Welcome to digital darkness, soon?

Does America have the supply chain, manufacturing capacity, oil reserves and creditability to survive this? Set up the Board of Peace only to go to war in 7 days? Inflation hits the whole world and there should be more challenges - fresh food for Middle East, Tourism, data centres, underwater fibre cables, supply chain delays, disruptions, maintenance, repairs and more issues ... ... Will we experience digital darkness soon? Will the world experience more terrorist attacks? Can America be trusted with global leadership?

3 of the 4 big Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar) are discussing withdrawing from US & other investments as the toll from the war with Iran mounts, per FT.

Trump says that America will go to war with Cuba next, after the war in Iran is “finished.” Trump is addicted to regime change.

Gulf countries may run out of fresh food stocks in days. The war with Iran is choking supply chains: 18% of global air cargo is already grounded, and sea routes are crumbling fast. Many gulf countries import almost everything, and fresh fruits, vegetables, and other perishables could be the first to vanish. Time is running out. Source: Newsdesk Heute

QatarEnergy declares Force Majeure. Further to the announcement by QatarEnergy to stop production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products, QatarEnergy has declared Force Majeure to its affected buyers. QatarEnergy values its relationships with all of its stakeholders and will continue to communicate the latest available information. - QatarEnergy

The UAE is projected to exhaust its interceptor missile stock within one week at the current rate of fire, and Qatar within four days; both are urgently seeking additional military support from the United States - Bloomberg

This is always a war of the supply chain. It is also about affordability and sustainability. Can the US hit hard, fast and accurately? Yes. Can the US fight a prolonged war? ... Not an infinite war.

An Iranian drone just hit an Amazon data centre in the UAE. AWS had to emergency shut down power to prevent the fire from spreading. Cloud outages across the region. Iran is now hitting the internet itself. - Clash Report

My Final Thoughts

The bigger issue is not the tariffs refund even though it will be an administrative nightmare and the lawsuits would be significant. Costing will need to be reviewed and will the retail prices be adjusted back to pre tariffs days? What is most costly is the loss of reliability of American policies.

Private Credit Market Stress

Recently, the private credit divisions of BlackRock and Blackstone have exerted considerable stress on the market. This is primarily due to their inability to honour certain investor withdrawal requests. As the market opens, it will be important to observe how this situation unfolds. There is a possibility that other companies offering private credit may also be facing similar challenges. However, it remains unclear whether these issues stem from short-term liquidity constraints or reflect deeper concerns about the quality of funds being offered in the private credit sector.

Portfolio Risk Management Amid Economic Uncertainty

With the addition of the latest job numbers and the anticipation of further retrenchments, it is crucial to consider hedging strategies within investment portfolios to effectively manage risk. The ASEAN region, projected to become the fourth-largest trading bloc globally by 2030, presents new opportunities for diversification. Singapore, in particular, stands out as a recommended destination for exploring these opportunities.

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Implications

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East highlights the need for supply chain strategies that align with defence complex production capacities and resource availability. Iran’s tactic of deploying older weapons in initial rounds has depleted a substantial portion of missile defence systems. As a result, subsequent bomb attacks may encounter reduced resistance, affecting not only Israel but also other Gulf states.

Investment Shifts Driven by Regional Instability

Cities like Dubai have historically attracted investors with their tax-free climate. However, diminished safety has made it challenging to retain these investors, prompting urgent relocation inquiries. Asian cities, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, are expected to benefit from this trend as some investors seek safer alternatives.

Anticipated Market Volatility and Strategic Responses

The upcoming release of inflation figures is expected to contribute to market volatility in the week ahead. The market’s response will depend on whether optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts can outweigh ongoing concerns related to economic data and the Middle East conflict. It is essential to maintain a disciplined approach by implementing strategies for taking profits and limiting losses.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Oracle(ORCL)$