To The Moon

The Australian sharemarket fell to its lowest weekly close since December, as the escalating US-Israel war with Iran sent oil prices higher and fuelled expectations of an RBA rate hike on Tuesday.

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ lost 2.6% for the week – its lowest weekly finish since December, as it retreated a further 11.90 points, or 0.14%, to 8617.10 on Friday.

However, the following five Australian stocks bucked the trend, rising by at least 7%:

1. $YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LTD(YAL.AU)$ +27.33%

Yancoal led ASX gainers with massive coal sector momentum.

• Global thermal coal prices surged ~25% YTD 2026, with Newcastle benchmark at ~US$135/tonne, accelerating in early March due to Middle East supply disruptions (Strait of Hormuz crisis affecting oil/gas routes, spillover to coal demand).

• Escalating geopolitical tensions (widening Middle East conflict) drove energy sector safe-haven buying; coal was the only positive sector while ASX fell.

• Upgraded 2026 production guidance (Feb 2026): attributable saleable output 36.5–40.5 million tonnes, with cash costs $90–98/tonne, boosting investor confidence in output/earnings.

• Broader coal rally lifted peers (e.g., $WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED(WHCCD.AU)$ +6.7%), with Yancoal hitting all-time highs (~A$7.74 intraday on March 12).

Key latest financials:

• Recent close: ~A$7.71 (up 10.46% on March 12 alone).

• TTM P/E: ~12.7–13.3x.

• TTM P/S: Not directly quoted, but implied low given high margins/energy rally.

• 50-day MA: Not precise, but stock far above recent averages amid 27%+ monthly gain.

2. $LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD(LYC.AU)$ +12.93%

Lynas surged on rare earth supply chain security and pricing tailwinds.

• Major offtake agreement extension (announced ~March 10–11, 2026) with Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE) to 2038: firm 5,000 tpa NdPr, up to 7,200 tpa optional; 50% firm Heavy Rare Earth oxides; introduces US$110/kg NdPr floor price, guaranteeing ~A$775m revenue (~48% of targeted production).

• NdPr prices at highest in ~3 years (US$111.5/kg recent), driven by global supply tightness, EV/renewables demand, and non-China diversification push.

• Broker upgrades (e.g., Bell Potter lifted valuation 60%+ post-deal; incremental revenue +7% CY26 consensus).

Key latest financials:

• Recent price surge to ~A$20–21 range post-deal.

• TTM/Recent: Revenue growth strong (1H FY26 revenue A$413.7m vs prior); NPAT A$80.2m.

• TTM P/E: Not explicit, but high growth implied (forecast revenue double in 2026 on production/prices).

• 50-day MA: Stock well above amid 192% 12-month and 65% YTD gains.

3. $INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP(IAG.AU)$ +10.35%

IAG rebounded despite earlier 2026 weakness from claims.

• Post-earnings recovery momentum from Feb 2026 1H results: underlying insurance profit up (A$804m), GWP +6%, strong capital position enabling A$200m buyback and 12cps interim dividend (payable March 2026).

• Market reassessment of premium hikes potential amid weather events; reduced future volatility via RACQ reinsurance integration (from Jan 2026).

• Broader financials/insurance sector rotation amid risk-off ASX sessions; some analysts see upside to ~A$8–10 targets.

• Positive underlying margin (15.1%) and FY26 guidance (high single-digit GWP growth, insurance profit A$1.55–1.75b) supporting rebound.

Key latest financials:

• Recent close: ~A$7.02 (up ~2–3% in sessions).

• TTM P/E: Implied from EPS ~A$0.57 and net margin 7.8%.

• TTM P/S: Revenue ~A$17.4b TTM.

• 50-day MA: Recovering from earlier lows (~A$6.4x range).

4. $SUNCORP GROUP LTD(SUN.AU)$ +8.55%

Suncorp gained in insurance sector strength.

• Insurance sector tailwinds similar to IAG (premium discipline, weather risk management); positive flow from broader financials rebound.

• Dividend appeal (interim 0.17 AUD, yield ~2.35%; ex-date Feb 2026) and stable outlook attracting income investors.

• ASX rotation into defensives amid energy/geopolitical volatility.

Key latest financials:

• Recent close: ~A$15.01–15.23.

• TTM EPS: ~0.83.

• TTM P/E: Not direct, but forward yield ~2.23%.

• 50-day MA: Above averages in recent uptrend.

5. $Alcoa Corp(AAI.AU)$ +7.36%

Alcoa (Australian CDI listing) rose on aluminum commodity strength.

• Aluminum price rally (LME >US$3,000/t) from supply risks (Middle East tensions, China/Europe cuts) and demand (AI/data centers, EVs, reconstruction trades).

• UBS upgrade/forecast lift (preferred Australian aluminum exposure amid supply disruptions).

• CEO focus on AI boom/data center deals (selling sites for power proximity; potential transactions by June 2026).

• Broader metals/energy surge in volatile market.

Key latest financials:

• Recent price: ~A$90–94 range (up ~4%+ sessions).

• TTM/Recent: Strong momentum (YTD +23.9%, 3-month +65%).