To The Moon

Why Is The Market Up Today Despite The Iran War?  

🌟🌟🌟The stock market staged a remarkable comeback on March 17 2026, shaking off early morning jitters to finish in a sea of green.  The primary driver?  A sharp plunge in oil prices triggered by comments from President Trump, who suggested that the war with Iran could be "very complete" sooner than anyone expected.  This de-escalation vibe sent Brent Crude tumbling back toward USD 100, lifting the heavy cloud of stagflation that had been suffocating growth stocks.

The "Gilded Moment" Rebound: Why the Bulls Came Back

1.  The TACO Moment:  

Markets reversed sharp morning losses after President Trump told CBS News that the war was "very complete, pretty much" claiming the US was significantly ahead of its original 4 to 5 week timeline.

2.  Oil Price Pullback :

Brent Crude, which had been the primary driver of stagflation fears, fell nearly 3% to USD 100.21 after peaking near USD 119 earlier in the session.

3.  AI Optimism Revival :

Tech stocks led the charge with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  gaining as CEO Jensen Huang showcased next gen chips at the GTC conference.

4.  Strategic Reserves:

News that the G7 ministers are considering tapping IEA strategic petroleum reserves to bypass the Strait of Hormuz standstill provided a "liquidity floor" for investors.

Market Performance Snapshot As At March 17 2026

S&P500: Up 1.01% to 6,699.38

Nasdaq Composite: Gained 1.22% to 22,374.18

Dow Jones : Rose 0.83% to 46,946.41.

3 Strategic ETFs For The Current Pivot

In this "Summer of Volatility" moving from Defense to Strategic Offense requires picking the right vehicles.  Here are 3 ETFs to watch and buy:

1.  SPYG $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF(SPYG)$  

SPYG offers a broader "growth" across the S&P 500.  It is the ultra low cost vehicle for AI led recovery.

Top holdings:  Apple at 12.4%, Microsoft at 12.1%, NVIDIA at 10.2% and Amazon at 4.6%.

Expense ratio: 0.04%

Dividend Yield: 0.63%

Performance: While YTD returns are down 5.3% due to war panic, it maintains a strong 5 year return at 13.5%.

Target Price: Analysts see technical support near USD 101.

2.  $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$  

XLE is your "Conflict Hedge".  It owns the US oil giants that thrive when the world gets messy.

Top Holdings:  Exxon Mobil at 22.5%, Chevron at 19.4%, Conoco Phillips at 8.2% and Schlumberger at 4.5%.

Expense ratio: 0.08%

Dividend Yield: 2.62%

Performance: A massive 29.14% YTD gain, capturing the oil spike.

Target Price: Currently trading near USD 58 with a Strong Buy signal as energy crisis remains a structural reality.

3.  $Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$  

SCHD is the "Safe Room" of the market.  High quality companies with proven dividend payout reliability of at least 10 years or more.

Top Holdings: Home Depot at 4.4%, BlackRock at 4.1%, Cisco at 4% and Chevron at 3.9%.

Expense ratio : 0.06%.

Dividend Yield: 3.39%.

Performance:  Up 12.29% YTD, leading the "Flight to Quality" trend of 2026.

Target Price: Analysts consensus is a Moderate Buy with a target price of USD 33.38, implying a 8.4% upside.

Concluding Thoughts 

On Tuesday, Wall Street decided to "Buy The Hope" even if that hope is currently built on a few optimstic headlines and a 3% drop in Brent.

There is a touch of dark humour in the rally.  We are celebrating USD 100 oil as if it is a bargain, simply because it isn't USD 200.

While the bulls at Goldman Sachs suggest that stocks could "outperform dramatically" once the dust settles, Volatility remains the only true certainty.

It is a homecoming to the reality that in 2026, you don't need a total peace treaty to win.  You just need to pick the right ETFs and stocks in your portfolio to stay one step ahead of the next deadline.

Diversification is the key to surviving this volatile market and unlocking long term gains.

May Peace Prevail As That Is the Ultimate Solution to This War and Oil Crisis.🙏🙏🙏

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