To The Moon

Do you think US economic reports released last week (March 9 -13) have any impact on US market sentiments, granted that the catalyst having a stranglehold over US market is the ongoing war between US and Iran ?

Nevertheless, it is still important to for investors to know because:

• Economic data drive earnings, interest rates, and valuations over the medium term

• They provide the fundamental baseline for US Fed’s interest rate decisions and long-term market stability.

• That will ultimately dictate the economy's resilience once the temporary, albeit volatile, geopolitical "risk premium" of war begins to fade.

Consistently following up on one’s shortlisted US economic reports is essential because:

• It equips investor the knowledge, to access whether US economy is deteriorating.

• It enables sensible judgments on whether to stay put or capitalize on opportunities to take profit.

Economic reports released last week includes:

• Wed, 11 Mar 2026 - Consumer price index (CPI) for February 2026.

• Thu, 12 Mar 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & continuing.

• Fri, 13 Mar 2026 - US Gross domestic product (Q4 2025) first revision.

• Fri, 13 Mar 2026 - US Consumer sentiments for March 2026.

• Fri, 13 Mar 2026 - US Jobs opening and labour turnover surveys (JOLTs).

• Fri, 13 Mar 2026 - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) for January 2026.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2026.

US’s CPI for February 2026 was basically flat, status quo from January 2026’s data.

Both headline and core inflation monthly readings rose by a marginal +0.1% to 0.3%, while both headline and core inflation annual readings did not deviate from January 2026 data set, in line with economists' expectations. (see below)

Pre-war inflation data, pointed to resilient, steady growth with inflation flatlining near the Fed’s target of 2.0% and a US economy that was beginning to stabilize.

With the US officially declaring war on 28 Feb 2026, the same cannot be said when March 2026 CPI inflation data is due next month.

Jobless Claims.

(a) Weekly Claims.

For week ended 7 Mar 2026, US weekly jobless claims fell ‘marginally’ by -1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 claims, coming in lower than economists’ forecasts of 215,000 claims (as polled by Reuters). (see below)

For 2026, weekly claims have been fluctuating between 199,000 - 232,000 range, amid low layoffs.

US jobless claims for February 2026

(b) Continuing Claims.

For week ended 28 Feb 2026, US continuing claims also fell by a ‘substantial’ -21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.850 million claims.

The so-called continuing claims could be declining due to some people exhausted their eligibility, limited to 26 weeks in most states.

Also, continuing claims do not include recent college graduates, that are experiencing long spells ​of unemployment, because they have limited or no work history, disqualifying them from claiming jobless benefits.

Gross domestic product (GDP).

US’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 2nd estimate for Q4 2025 GDP, released on 13 Mar 2026, shows real GDP growth slowing sharply to +0.7% annualized (seasonally adjusted). see below.

This is down by -50% from 1st estimate of 1.40%, reported on 20 Feb 2026.

The slowdown is largely attributed to downwards revision to (a) consumer spending and (b) business investment, as well as downgrades to (c) government spending and (d) export growth.

Consumer Sentiments.

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5 for March 2026, from a final reading of 56.6 in ​February 2026. (see above)

Economists polled by Reuters had estimated ⁠the index falling to 55.0.

The reading marked the lowest level in 3 months, as households reacted to the military conflict involving the US and Iran, with higher gasoline prices having the most, immediate impact on US consumers.

According to data from motorist advocacy group AAA, gasoline prices have soared more ​than +21% to $3.63 /gallon since the war ​started.

With the US invasion persisting into the 3rd week, it is likely that the Consumer sentiments final report for March 2026, might dip further when it is out on 27 Mar 2026.

Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover Surveys (JOLTs).

(1) Jobs Opening.

For January 2026, US job openings increased, but hiring was lacklustre, consistent with a stable labour market.

According to US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), job openings, rose by +396,000 to 6.946 million, rebounding from a 5-year low of 6.55 million in December 2025. (see below)

The January number, significantly outperformed the consensus forecast of 6.70 million, driven largely by the finance, insurance, and healthcare sectors.

The job openings rate increased to 4.2% from 4.0% in December 2025.

(2) Quit rate.

January 2026’s quits rate, a key measure of worker confidence, remained stubbornly low at 2.0% for the 7th consecutive month, while layoffs stayed low at 1.0% and hiring remained tepid.

Economists termed this "job hugging" - where workers remain in their current roles due to perceived risk of switching jobs during a period of war and market volatility.

(3) Hire rate.

Despite a jump in jobs opening, actual hiring remained flat at 5.3 million.

This divergence indicates that while employers are eager to expand, they are struggling to find qualified candidates or are hesitant to pull the trigger on permanent headcount amidst growing geopolitical uncertainty.

Personal Consumption Expenditure.

The final report of the week was US Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report.

It’s the official PCE (delayed) report for January 2026, revealing a US economy experiencing a "forked" inflation trend, where headline energy costs provided temporary relief while underlying "core" inflation grew increasingly stubborn. (see below)

The most alarming data point is the Core PCE (Annual) rising to 3.1%.

This is the highest level since early 2024, indicating a "sticky" inflation, especially in services and healthcare - accelerating (again) before onset of the late February war.

It is the same for US’s core PCE of 0.4% monthly gain.

It is definitely an internal price pressures that is already too hot for the Fed’s comfort, even without a war induced energy crisis.

My viewpoints: (mine only)

I think the “pre-US-Iran war” data reveals a US economy with ‘stable’ inflation, softening GDP growth (0.7%), cautious consumer sentiment (55.5), steady labour markets, and a persistent core pressures.

By initiating the Middle East war, US faces a very high chance of stagflation risks due to escalating energy costs in just 2 weeks of conflict.

Above reports confirm that Fed chair’s Powell "soft landing" projected in late 2025 has been replaced by a high-risk environment of rising costs and cooling growth.

Run for the hills ?

I have pondered over this question and in the end, I still think that retail investors should not bail entirely.

I would rather trim exposure to cyclicals and $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ energy-sensitive sectors.

And simultaneously, pivot to hold defensives like: (a) Utilities - $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ and (b) Consumer staples - $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$ to weather stagflation risks until de-escalation clarifies the outlook.

Do you share the same thoughts of “pivot within your comfort zone while there is still time”?

New US Economic Reports (week ending 20 Mar 2026)

• Tue, 17 Mar: Retail Sales (Feb)

• Wed, 18 Mar: Producer price index (Feb) - headline and core.

• Wed, 18 Mar: FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

• Thu, 19 Mar: Jobless Claims - Weekly and continuing.

• Thu, 19 Mar: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

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• Do you think US economy is slowing down, with the “help” a war that pushes US national debt to $40 trillion by end H1 2026 ?

• Do you think the ongoing war’s defense spending will artificially inflate the next GDP report due on 9 Apr 2026?

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