To The Moon

💬 Let’s Discuss: Do you believe Tesla’s robotaxis will live up to the hype? Share your take on TSLA’s AI transformation and RIVN’s catch-up chance!

Despite a roughly 9% year-on-year drop in 2025 vehicle deliveries—marking the second consecutive year of negative growth— $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ stock has been on a tear in the capital market. It rose more than 60% in 2024 and has climbed an additional 10% since entering 2025. Against the backdrop of challenges in its electric vehicle (EV) business, the stock’s strong performance has attracted widespread attention. Behind this, a core market expectation is that the company is transitioning from an automaker to an artificial intelligence (AI) enterprise. This does not mean abandoning the EV business, but rather that Tesla’s future will increasingly rely on its investments and breakthroughs in the AI field. It is the enormous potential of AI technology that supports its high valuation of nearly 15 times sales.

Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that the successful launch of Tesla’s robotaxi business is a key catalyst underestimated by the market. Analyst Andrew Percoco expressed optimism about Tesla’s Cybercab autonomous vehicle and its related businesses, predicting that it will bring a powerful “flywheel effect” to its entire ecosystem. He explained that every additional mile of safe, unsupervised driving by robotaxis allows the underlying autonomous driving model to be optimized, thereby accelerating the realization of full self-driving in personal vehicles. This progress will not only promote the popularization of the FSD package, boost car demand, and enhance cash flow but also provide financial support for Tesla’s long-term layout in physical AI. Although Tesla’s rollout in Austin has been cautious, this helps refine its promotion strategy, paving the way for rapid scaling in the 7 new cities it plans to enter in the first half of this year. It is expected that the transition time from supervised to fully autonomous driving will be significantly shortened in the future.

The Morgan Stanley team emphasized that, relying on the advantage of vertical integration from vehicle manufacturing to fleet operations, Tesla’s robotaxis has a significant edge in cost structure. Taking the Model Y as an example, its estimated comprehensive cost is about $0.81 per mile, far lower than the ride-hailing industry average of $1.71 and Waymo’s $1.43. With the mass production of Cybercab, it is expected that by 2035, its cost per mile could drop further to $0.37.

The Other Side of the AI Track: Rivian’s Catch-Up and Opportunities

Another EV company, $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ , is also investing heavily in AI, but its market situation is vastly different. Rivian’s price-to-sales ratio is only 3.3 times, with a market capitalization of less than $20 billion—far from Tesla’s $1.2 trillion valuation. Wall Street still seems skeptical about this emerging AI concept stock, but this may also provide potential opportunities for investors. First, Rivian is fully betting on AI. As institutions like McKinsey predict that autonomous vehicles will become a reality in the next few years, Rivian recognizes that a vehicle’s full self-driving capability will be the core of future competition. Therefore, it has invested heavily in AI R&D and even plans to produce AI chips independently to control core technologies and reduce reliance on external suppliers.

Second, Rivian’s new R2 SUV will be a key driver of its AI strategy. The evolution of AI models relies on massive amounts of data, and Tesla’s leading advantage stems from the real-world data collected by its millions of vehicles on the road. Next month, Rivian is expected to start delivering its first R2 model with a starting price below $50,000, which will make its products accessible to tens of millions of new buyers. As sales increase, Rivian will gain more data to train and optimize its autonomous driving models.

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