When Is the Right Time to Bottom-Fish?
$SPY$
When is it time to buy the dip? Not now. Simple reason: the current drop is pricing in the impact of surging oil prices — but what about earnings season?
With triple witching (March 20) behind us, we're now three weeks out from Q2 earnings. Last quarter, spending was the main driver for stock moves. Spending up → stocks down. So if spending slows, does that mean stocks go up?
Not so fast. Slower spending would signal that big tech is cautious on AI — which would almost certainly trigger a valuation reset. That's why I'm not surprised to see May puts targeting 600–625 on SPY. That's deeply pessimistic.
Still, a bounce next week is possible. Put expirations are skewed further out than calls. So the market could swing violently either way — but options are expensive. Buying premium is a tough bet, selling is risky. It's a tough spot, and it applies to most stocks right now.
$NVDA$
With the broader market pulling back, the strike prices in NVDA's call spread strategy have shifted lower:
Sell Call $NVDA 20260327 185.0 CALL$ , Buy Call $NVDA 20260327 190.0 CALL$ .
But selling calls here doesn't feel right. Friday and Monday are two different worlds now. After a big drop, selling calls just invites a short squeeze.
Selling puts isn't the move either. Put flow shows tail risk is still high for next week — plenty of "haircut"-style strikes being opened. Another weekend is coming up. Who knows what happens.
Setting aside black swan noise, next week's downside is hard to pin down — this week's low was already a miss. From positioning, the lower bound could be somewhere between 165 and 175 — but could go lower.
The upside is also unclear. Without a squeeze, NVDA likely stays below 185. With one? Below 190. So if we do get a squeeze next week, selling calls could work.
$USO$
More bets on an oil pullback. A bear put spread on Wednesday:
Buy $USO 20260417 80.0 PUT$ — 26k contracts
Sell $USO 20260417 75.0 PUT$ — 24k contracts
This suggests oil could roll over by mid-April. Notional isn't huge, but it's a sign that the final sprint may be near.
$TSLA$
Institutional call spread: Sell 392.5 Call $TSLA 20260327 392.5 CALL$ , Buy 407.5 Call $TSLA 20260327 407.5 CALL$ .
Betting TSLA stays below 392.5 into next week — unless the broader market squeezes higher.
The downside target is pretty clear: 340. In theory, 370 should offer strong support — but right now, that feels optimistic.
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