To The Moon

Last week, in my Tuesday post (click here ! for details), I wondered aloud whether the many US economic reports released have any impact on market sentiments, given the biggest dampener is US invasion of Iran.

My suspicion was confirmed on Tue, 17 Mar 2026 when the US Producer inflation report was released (more on that later).

For the week ended 20 Mar 2026, US stock declines accelerated into the close and oil prices edged higher, with the 3-week-old war in the Middle East showing no signs of winding down.

By the time market closed on Friday:

• DJIA : -0.96% (−443.96 to 45,577.47).

• S&P 500: -1.51% (−100.01 to 6,506.48. Closed at its lowest in 6 months.

• Nasdaq: -2.01% (−443.08 to 21,674.61).

Since the Iran war on 28 Feb 2026, the Dow is down nearly -7%, the S&P 500 fell by -5.4% and the Nasdaq by -4.5%.

All 3 ⁠major indexes:

• Fell for a 4th straight week, the first time it happened to Dow industrials since 2023.

• They are below their 200-day moving averages, underscoring deterioration of sentiment on Wall Street, recently.

US Economic Reports.

Reports released last week included (a) US Home builder confidence index on 17 Mar 2026, (b) Producer Price Index (PPI) on 18 Mar 2026 and (c) US Jobless claims on 19 Mar 2026.

Details are below.

US Home builder confidence index.

For March 2026, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose slightly to 38, from an upwards revised 37 in February.

This marked the 23rd straight month below the neutral 50 threshold.

The tepid uptick signals persistent housing market weakness, implying subdued new home construction and sales amid high mortgage rates and buyer caution.

It looks like the sub-50 readings will be here for a while, with non-existence forecast of near-term boom.

Producer Price Index.

The US Producer price index (PPI) report was released on Tue,17 Mar 2026.

Headline inflation, MoM and YoY came in at +0.7% and +3.4% (highest since February 2025) respectively.

• Monthly actual was higher by +0.4%, vs analysts’ estimates of +0.3% vs January’s +0.5%.

• 12 months actual was also higher by +0.5% vs consensus of +2.9% vs January’s +2.9%.

Core inflation readings, MoM & YoY came in at +0.5% and +3.9%.

• Monthly actual was higher by +0.2% vs analysts’ estimates of +0.3% vs January’s +0.8%.

• 12 months actual was also higher by +0.2%, vs analysts’ consensus of +3.7% vs January’s +3.5%.

The hotter-than-expected PPI signals re-accelerating of wholesale inflation.

The higher prices is likely to filter into consumer prices and definitely, challenge the Fed’s rate cut expectations, amid services & goods pressures.

US market fell across the board on Tuesday intraday with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ falling between -0.3% to –0.4%, while the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ dipped to around -0.5%.

The above points to:

• A sustain inflationary risks.

• Potentially tighter monetary policy.

• Headwinds for equities if current trends persist into March data (due on 14 Apr 2026).

Jobless claims.

Rounding off the pertinent US reports for the week is the jobless claims, both Weekly and Continuing reports.

Weekly claims.

For the week ending 14 Mar 2026, US weekly jobless claims fell by -8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 from last week’s 213,000. (see below)

It is also lower than Wall Street estimates of 215,000.

The 4-week moving average dipped by -750 to 210,750 and down by approx. -20,000 YoY.

Continuing claims.

For week ending 07 Mar 2026, continuing claims edged up by +10,000 to 1.857 million from last week’s downwards revised 1.847 million. (see above)

It is marginally higher than analysts’ consensus of 1.85 million.

This number is now near the low end of the range since mid-2024, with the 4-week average at 1.850 million (down by -2,000).

Insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%.

Overall, the reports point to stable labour market conditions and a rebound in job growth in March.

For now, they showed no impact ​yet on the jobs market from the dragging war in the Middle East, that has sent global oil and domestic gasoline prices soaring.

Economists have warned that (a) higher energy prices and (b) tightening financial conditions ‌could undermine consumer and business spending and be a drag on US labour market.

US Market This Week.

I think US market will still be trading off the Iran–Hormuz story this week, but in a tighter, more nuanced range.

Trump has postponed his 21 Mar 2026’s threat to “hit & obliterate Iranian power plants” for 5 days, citing productive talks over the weekend.

This update from Trump’s Truth Social helped lifted risk‑on sentiment slightly and eased oil‑price pressure.

However, Iran’s Fars agency denies any direct or indirect talks with the US, casting doubt on how much real de‑escalation has really occurred.

As such, US market might be in a brief calm‑before‑the‑storm mode. where direction still hinges on whether Trump will still follow through before or after the 5‑day window.

For now, US stocks will still be leaning risk‑on and remain hypersensitive to any escalation rhetoric or Strait‑of‑Hormuz news.

Although lately it seems like US market has taken a beating.

If we just, take a step back and look at US market’s past 12 months performance, all 3 major indexes are still in the “green” actually.

The same goes for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$.

Based on its past 12 months performances, it is still registering a +32.17% gains. (see below)

As of 23 Mar 2026

Does this warrant a celebration ? Of course not, especially not when we take a closer look.

On 16 Dec 2025, TSLA peaked at $489.88 /share and it has been on the decline since.

As of 22 March 2026, the electric car maker has fallen by approx. -45% from its peak, effectively erasing $550 billion in market cap amid the many challenges it currently faces:

• EV demand slowdowns.

• Revival of FSD autonomous driving regulatory scrutiny.

• Middle East oil shock amplification.

TSLA Downfall Drivers.

The 3 critical factors driving TSLA lower are:

Weak Demand.

Thanks to owner cum CEO Musk’s wild antics during Trump’s early days back in 2025, he has successfully isolated his customers from him, eroding the trust in the process.

This is most apparent in the European Union.

For February 2026, Denmark Tesla registrations continue to crater, falling by -18% YoY to 419 EV units based on 02 Mar 2026 data released.

The extending Europe's backlash also extended to other EU countries and its dwindling sales respectively in :

• Germany with a -59% fall in Jaunary 2026.

• Norway with a -44% fall in February 2026.

In China, TSLA managed to hold its court with February 2026 domestic sales & exports coming in at 58,599 EVs, representing a +90.95% YoY increase and -15.23% lower than January 2026 sales. (see below)

In all fairness, YTD sales from 2026 and 2025, pale in comparison to 2024’s.

Needless to say, $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ remains the #1 automaker (in sales) in China, closing February with 88,697 units sold, while TSLA is in #3 position.

Regulator’s Probe Escalation:

On 18 Mar 2026, the NHTSA escalated its investigation into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software to an Engineering Analysis, designated EA26002.

This probe now covers 3.2 million EVs, including models S, 3, X, Y, and Cybertruck.

It targets failures of the camera-only system in conditions like fog, sun glare, and dust, documenting 9 crashes, including 1 fatality, since late 2024.

A prior preliminary evaluation - PE25012, launched in October 2025 had identified 58 instances of red-light violations.

Upon news released, TSLA fell 2% - 3% intraday to $383 /share.

Potential outcomes, such as (a) over-the-air software restrictions or (b) a mandated LiDAR retrofit recall by Q4 2026, could cost TSLA billions.

Middle East Tension:

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, initiated after President Trump's 21 Mar 2026 ultimatum, has driven Brent crude oil prices to $105 /barrel—a +25% increase since December 2025.

This surge raises Tesla's input costs for batteries and lithium while boosting consumer gasoline savings, thereby eroding the total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage of EVs.

Analyst Gary Black calculates that a $10 rise in gas prices could lift TSLA sales by +5% to +7%.

However, the resulting inflation has pushed US 10-year Treasury yields up +50 basis points to 4.6%, compressing the stock's price-to-earnings ratio from 90x to 60x. (see below)

US 10 years Treasury Bond - as of 23 Mar 2026

Overall, analysts project Tesla's Q1 2026 deliveries to fall -23% YoY to 386,000 EVs - ahead of scheduled quarterly earnings tentatively dropping in on 02 Apr 2026., further validating TSLA's ongoing decline since mid-December 2025.

Robotaxi - Profit Frontier.

Despite its dwindling sales for the past few quarters, TSLA managed to rebounce as investors continue to hang onto its last value proposition - robotaxi.

Unfortunately, the gap between vision and regulatory reality remains far and wide.

Tesla's Cybercab/Robotaxi deployment depends heavily on approval for FSD version 13.

Below is the latest status or lack thereof:

(1) Licensing Status.

As of late February 2026, TSLA holds zero commercial robotaxi permits in any major US market.

Further drill-down reveals:

California

• The state's Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) has denied Tesla's application for a driverless permit for the 3rd time in February 2026.

• This has resulted its ‘restricted’ operations to supervised FSD use only.

Texas.

• Authority in Austin, approved employee-only rides for 50 TSLA EVs in October 2025.

• So far, TSLA has not launch any public operations there.

Arizona.

• Investigation into TSLA remains ongoing, stemming from incidents that occurred in 2025.

Across all efforts, Tesla's success rate for licensing applications stands at 20%. This reflects 2 approvals out of 10 applications submitted, both limited to supervised operations only.

While competitors like Waymo are expanding to over 25 US cities, TSLA has yet to (a) log meaningful autonomous miles or (b) secure the necessary state-level certifications for driverless commercial operations.

It is not much different for TSLA in Europe.

EU’s regulator, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) has delayed its approval for TSLA’s FSD until H2 2026.

The postponement persists despite Musk's optimistic projections.

(2) Other US States Expansion Hurdles:

With only 3 months left, TSLA’s much touted robotaxi launch in cities like Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and Miami in H1 2026 is likely to stall (again) by the lack of regulatory approval.

Adding to the woes is TSLA current legal conflicts with regulators it needs for these very approvals.

Q1 2026 Earnings Forecast.

TSLA will be reporting its earnings, amid all this negative news in the media on Tue, 28 Apr 2026, tentatively.

This report will be a critical inflection point for the EV maker:

• Analysts are projecting an EPS of $0.34, a decline from Q4 2025’s $0.50 and revenue of $21 billion, down from Q4 2025’s $24.90 billion.

• TSLA’s plan to increase Capex to over $20 billion in 2026 to fund AI training and "Cybercab" production has raised concerns about negative free cash flow - a metric that could spook investors if vehicle margins do not stabilize.

• The expected EU’s FSD approval in Netherlands on 10 Apr 2026 will serve as a "pre-earnings" catalyst. A success could provide a positive narrative for earnings call while a further delay would likely cement the bearish sentiment.

To be fair and objective, it is not all gloom and doom.

TSLA’s energy storage deployments that earned a revenue of $3.84 billion (a +25% YoY gain) is expected to continue to do well in Q1 2026 with a further 50% - 62% YoY growth as projected by Musk on 28 Jan 2026 during earnings conference call.

Decline Warranted ?

Regardless of the Middle East conflict, TSLA’s huge internal headwinds suggest the stock's fall is largely on its own merits:

Product Fatigue & Competition:

• Its vehicle lineup is struggling against fresher models from Chinese and European rivals, as evidenced by the sharp registration drops in key markets.

Regulatory "Last Mile":

• The NHTSA’s intensified probe and the lack of US Robotaxi permits suggest that TSLA "AI-first" valuation is being tested by the reality of safety standards.

Valuation Reality Check:

• With a P/E ratio still hovering near 343x (as of 20 Mar 2025), the market is pricing in "perfect execution" of the Robotaxi and Optimus robot programs.

• Any delay in these, eg. a 3-week slip in European FSD approval, will exert a downwards correction in the stock price.

• And investors shift from valuing Tesla as a "tech platform" back to a "struggling automaker".

Technical Analysis.

As to whether TSLA will continue to trend lower this week, its technical indicators of Simple Moving Averages (SMA), MACD and RSI should provide some clues. (see below)

As of 20 Mar 2026 endday

Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

• On Fri, 20 Mar 2026, TSLA ended the week at $367.96 /share.

• This is lower than its 20-day SMA ($398.47), 50-day SMA ($415.29) and 200-day SMA ($394.39).

• It confirms that TSLA is in a bearish momentum and could trend lower based on market sentiments.

• With the 50-day SMA converging the 200-day SMA from above, a potential “Death Cross” is in the making, should TSLA continues to trend lower (see above).

• Best to avoid, until TSLA can reclaim at least the 50‑day SMA and then 200‑day SMA with convincing volume.

MACD.

• The MACD line (-9.27) and the Signal line (-7.45) are both lower than Zero line.

• With the MACD line below the Signal line - this spells a classic bearish alignment.

• While a negative Divergence (-1.82), indicates a “sell” momentum is gathering pace.

• Prudent investor should wait for a bullish crossover with the MACD line trending above (not below) the Signal line and a positive Divergence.

RSI.

• With the 14-day RSI at 31.94, TSLA is very closed to being regarded as “Oversold”.

• It signals “intense” selling pressure over the past 14 day period.

• Watch out for a potential exhaustion before considering jumping in?

My viewpoints: (mine only)

With Trump ‘giving’ Middle East peace a chance or executing his “TACO” move, a short-lived relief rally hits TSLA.

However, its long-term upwards trajectory remains tie to its ability to turn regulatory hurdles into revenue-generating autonomous miles, its last value proposition frontier. Agree ?

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• Do you think US market will continue to trend lower by the end of the week ?

• Do you think TSLA will continue to trend lower by the end of the week.

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