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AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names "Three Bottlenecks", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027

博通高管点名AI供应链三大核心瓶颈：激光器、先进制程晶圆及PCB。受制于技术门槛与产能挤压，小型PCB交货周期已暴增至六个月，激光器良率不足30%。即便台积电现大规模扩产，因设备交期达12至18个月、2026年产能实际已被大厂锁定，新订单需排队至2027年，算力缺口将趋于常态化。

AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names "Three Bottlenecks", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027

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Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625964592","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"博通高管点名AI供应链三大核心瓶颈：激光器、先进制程晶圆及PCB。受制于技术门槛与产能挤压，小型PCB交货周期已暴增至六个月，激光器良率不足30%。即便台积电现大规模扩产，因设备交期达12至18个月、2026年产能实际已被大厂锁定，新订单需排队至2027年，算力缺口将趋于常态化。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers and PCBs. Due to the technical threshold and production capacity squeeze, the delivery cycle of small PCB has soared to six months, and the laser yield is less than 30%. Even if TSMC is expanding its production on a large scale, because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months, and the production capacity has actually been locked by large manufacturers in 2026, new orders need to be queued until 2027, and the computing power gap will tend to be normalized.</p><p>The supply-side constraints of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives named the three bottlenecks of AI supply chain, revealing that the real card point of this computing power arms race is far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and it is difficult to dissolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, marketing director of entity layer products, pointed out at a media conference held in Taipei on March 24th that AI-related supply chains are currently facing three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser capacity, wafer (esp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced Process), and PCB (Paddle Card, Printed Circuit Board).</strong>Among them, lead times for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers have spiked from about six weeks to about six months, and are not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement to the market is that the investment boom of AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield of less than 30% under the rigorous laser test, to the sluggish unit output in the initial stage of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the switching certification cycle of PCB suppliers for more than six months-the superposition of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is likely to continue in a structural way, and the price increase in the supply chain may tend to normalize.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed at the March earnings conference that Broadcom has locked in the supply of key components from 2026 to 2028 ahead of schedule, covering advanced process wafers, high bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This advanced layout itself is a direct reflection of the current supply tightness.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB lead time skyrockets tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T high-order optical transceiver module, the PCB connects the external cable to the internal<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces for components. This kind of small PCB usually adopts mSAP (improved semi-additive method) process due to its small space and extremely high-frequency signals. The technical threshold is much higher than that of ordinary PCB, and it is mainly supplied by manufacturers with high-order HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root of the bottleneck of PCB lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is a partial intersection between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required by AI server. When the world snaps up HBM capacity, the capacity of small PCB is squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely strict requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must adopt ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which cannot be undertaken by ordinary PCB manufacturers.</p><p>More critically, once a supplier is changed, the certification cycle is as long as more than six months. This is exactly what<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Why ultra-large-scale cloud vendors prefer to sign three-to four-year long-term contracts and lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Laser: the yield rate is less than 30%, and indium phosphide production capacity becomes the core card point</h2>Laser components have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (co-packaged optics) era. In order to support the bandwidth of 1.6T or higher, the laser must keep the wavelength stable in the high temperature environment of the data center, and there are strict requirements for \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if the supplier can produce the laser die, after rigorous reliability testing, the yield that meets the high standards of CPO may be less than 30%.</strong></p><p>The constraints on the production capacity side are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world with the capacity of mass production of 6-inch InP. If the orders of upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are full, no matter how many packaging factories there are downstream, there will be no laser wafers available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In a conventional optical module, one module is configured with one laser; In the CPO scheme, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Light Source Module) architecture, which led to a linear relationship between the demand for laser chips and the number of switches, but an exponential increase, which directly impacted the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Road</h2>In terms of wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly said that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\", and it is expected that TSMC's advanced process production line will form a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue to expand production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super big traffic jam\" occurs in the advanced packaging link in the back road.</strong>In the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact General Purpose Photonic Engine) technology to stack optical chips and silicon chips in three dimensions through Hybrid Bonding. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and the test cycle is extremely long, which makes it difficult to rapidly increase the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape further intensifies the pressure on production capacity. In 2026, Broadcom's capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those who are investing heavily in self-developing ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the top AI computing power chip and the highest 1.6T network switch pour into the same production line of TSMC at the same time, the production capacity has essentially entered the \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, plant construction, clean room completion, introduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The lead time of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end test equipment is often 12 to 18 months.<strong>This means that the production capacity in 2026 has actually been locked in by major factories between 2024 and 2025-customers who only add orders now can only wait until 2027 to release new production capacity.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Full-chain spillover: second-tier suppliers lag behind in production expansion and bottleneck spreads</h2>Capacity pressure is spilling over throughout the supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging factories. The links that are really easy to form stuck points include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrate, Underfill necessary for advanced packaging, heat dissipation demand caused by AI power consumption explosion, KGD test and Burn-in test, CPO and optical module, and cutting and drilling of TSV and intermediate layer.</strong></p><p>Wei Zhejia, chairman of TSMC, once said that \"the production capacity of CoWoS is still insufficient\"-what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: carrier board factory, probe card manufacturer, bottom filler supplier, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it can't force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. It often takes two to three years to expand the production of ABF substrates, and the aging test time is extremely long. The alignment tolerance of optical fiber arrays is sub-micron level, and it is difficult to fully automate-every link is slowing down the overall rhythm.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to promote the hardware iteration of GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than periodic disturbances. For investors, where the capacity card lies, it is where the pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-05 15:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers and PCBs. Due to the technical threshold and production capacity squeeze, the delivery cycle of small PCB has soared to six months, and the laser yield is less than 30%. Even if TSMC is expanding its production on a large scale, because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months, and the production capacity has actually been locked by large manufacturers in 2026, new orders need to be queued until 2027, and the computing power gap will tend to be normalized.</p><p>The supply-side constraints of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives named the three bottlenecks of AI supply chain, revealing that the real card point of this computing power arms race is far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and it is difficult to dissolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, marketing director of entity layer products, pointed out at a media conference held in Taipei on March 24th that AI-related supply chains are currently facing three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser capacity, wafer (esp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced Process), and PCB (Paddle Card, Printed Circuit Board).</strong>Among them, lead times for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers have spiked from about six weeks to about six months, and are not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement to the market is that the investment boom of AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield of less than 30% under the rigorous laser test, to the sluggish unit output in the initial stage of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the switching certification cycle of PCB suppliers for more than six months-the superposition of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is likely to continue in a structural way, and the price increase in the supply chain may tend to normalize.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed at the March earnings conference that Broadcom has locked in the supply of key components from 2026 to 2028 ahead of schedule, covering advanced process wafers, high bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This advanced layout itself is a direct reflection of the current supply tightness.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB lead time skyrockets tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T high-order optical transceiver module, the PCB connects the external cable to the internal<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces for components. This kind of small PCB usually adopts mSAP (improved semi-additive method) process due to its small space and extremely high-frequency signals. The technical threshold is much higher than that of ordinary PCB, and it is mainly supplied by manufacturers with high-order HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root of the bottleneck of PCB lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is a partial intersection between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required by AI server. When the world snaps up HBM capacity, the capacity of small PCB is squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely strict requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must adopt ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which cannot be undertaken by ordinary PCB manufacturers.</p><p>More critically, once a supplier is changed, the certification cycle is as long as more than six months. This is exactly what<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Why ultra-large-scale cloud vendors prefer to sign three-to four-year long-term contracts and lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Laser: the yield rate is less than 30%, and indium phosphide production capacity becomes the core card point</h2>Laser components have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (co-packaged optics) era. In order to support the bandwidth of 1.6T or higher, the laser must keep the wavelength stable in the high temperature environment of the data center, and there are strict requirements for \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if the supplier can produce the laser die, after rigorous reliability testing, the yield that meets the high standards of CPO may be less than 30%.</strong></p><p>The constraints on the production capacity side are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world with the capacity of mass production of 6-inch InP. If the orders of upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are full, no matter how many packaging factories there are downstream, there will be no laser wafers available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In a conventional optical module, one module is configured with one laser; In the CPO scheme, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Light Source Module) architecture, which led to a linear relationship between the demand for laser chips and the number of switches, but an exponential increase, which directly impacted the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Road</h2>In terms of wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly said that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\", and it is expected that TSMC's advanced process production line will form a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue to expand production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super big traffic jam\" occurs in the advanced packaging link in the back road.</strong>In the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact General Purpose Photonic Engine) technology to stack optical chips and silicon chips in three dimensions through Hybrid Bonding. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and the test cycle is extremely long, which makes it difficult to rapidly increase the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape further intensifies the pressure on production capacity. In 2026, Broadcom's capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those who are investing heavily in self-developing ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the top AI computing power chip and the highest 1.6T network switch pour into the same production line of TSMC at the same time, the production capacity has essentially entered the \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, plant construction, clean room completion, introduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The lead time of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end test equipment is often 12 to 18 months.<strong>This means that the production capacity in 2026 has actually been locked in by major factories between 2024 and 2025-customers who only add orders now can only wait until 2027 to release new production capacity.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Full-chain spillover: second-tier suppliers lag behind in production expansion and bottleneck spreads</h2>Capacity pressure is spilling over throughout the supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging factories. The links that are really easy to form stuck points include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrate, Underfill necessary for advanced packaging, heat dissipation demand caused by AI power consumption explosion, KGD test and Burn-in test, CPO and optical module, and cutting and drilling of TSV and intermediate layer.</strong></p><p>Wei Zhejia, chairman of TSMC, once said that \"the production capacity of CoWoS is still insufficient\"-what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: carrier board factory, probe card manufacturer, bottom filler supplier, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it can't force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. It often takes two to three years to expand the production of ABF substrates, and the aging test time is extremely long. The alignment tolerance of optical fiber arrays is sub-micron level, and it is difficult to fully automate-every link is slowing down the overall rhythm.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to promote the hardware iteration of GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than periodic disturbances. For investors, where the capacity card lies, it is where the pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"BK4575":"芯片概念","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","IE00BYV24P56.USD":"GUINNESS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMCWC346.EUR":"GUINNESS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BVYPNV92.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - 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