GOLD Remains in a Weak Zone
Technically, gold remains in a weak zone, with $4600 a key support/resistance level.
Although gold has seen a short-term rebound, from a technical perspective, its overall trend has not fundamentally changed.$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$
Currently, gold prices are still trading below the 200-period exponential moving average (currently at $4809), indicating that medium- to long-term downward pressure persists. The MACD indicator shows that its fast line has crossed below the slow line, and both are below the zero line, with the negative histogram continuing to expand, indicating that selling pressure is gradually accumulating. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 52, which, while in a neutral range, suggests that the pullback from the overbought zone is gradually weakening upward momentum.
The $4600 level corresponds precisely to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March decline, making it technically significant. If gold can effectively hold above this level, it may see further recovery; however, a break below it could trigger a deeper correction.
IV. Key Support and Resistance Analysis
On the upside, gold faces its first major resistance level around $4760, which coincides with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and the recent high area. A strong break above this level could see bulls challenge the 200-period moving average around $4809, and then test the 61.8% retracement level around $4916. Only a clear recovery above this moving average cluster would significantly alleviate the current bearish bias.
On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level remains a key short-term support level. A breach of this level could lead to a rapid decline to the 23.6% retracement level around $4412. A further break below this area would put the psychological level of $4300 under immediate scrutiny.
Summary: Gold's rebound warrants caution; focus on US services PMI data
Overall, while the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations provided short-term support for gold, inflation concerns stemming from rising oil prices and expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates continue to exert significant downward pressure on gold bulls. Currently, market liquidity is relatively thin, coupled with the Easter holiday factor, traders need to remain cautious.
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