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04-07

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IEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering "Black April"!

国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol指出，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中三分之一受到严重破坏，修复要很长时间。若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损原油与成品油损失将达三月份两倍。

IEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering "Black April"!

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Birol has made it clear that the root of the crisis lies not in energy itself, but in geopolitics, which also makes it deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently implementing real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries and energy terminals in the Gulf region.</p><p>75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third of which are severely damaged, and the repair works will cost up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>US dollars, and will cause a long-term disruption to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and exacerbating transportation pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point.</p><p>The rate of recovery differs significantly among the damaged countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia is expected to recover relatively quickly with its strong engineering capabilities and abundant financial resources; Iraq, on the other hand, has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching a critical point of economic paralysis, with some 15 million people dependent on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to return to this position.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports shut down across the board</strong></h2>In terms of production losses, Birol's description is striking. He said that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of the pre-war level; For natural gas, exports have stopped altogether.</p><p>In the time dimension, the situation is accelerating to deterioration. \"March has been tough, but April will be worse,\" Birol said. \"If the channel remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as we did in March.\"</p><p>He uses a metaphor for seasons: \"April in the northern hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But for now, it may feel like the beginning of winter. \"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the hardest hit groups, Birol prioritized developing countries.</p><p>He said that the combination of high oil and gas prices and high food prices to accelerate inflation will deal a heavy blow to economic growth in these countries. \"I am worried that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>In terms of countries with higher specific exposure risk, Birol named Asia's oil import-dependent economies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries is that they have limited fiscal room to maneuver and are difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: geopolitically driven, the path to repair is full of uncertainty</strong></h2>Birol repeatedly emphasized in the interview that there is an essential difference between this crisis and previous energy supply shocks in history-it does not stem from the supply and demand imbalance of the energy market itself, but the result of geopolitical conflicts directly destroying physical infrastructure.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and repair path are highly dependent on the political situation, and the market pricing mechanism is difficult to play an effective role.</p><p>The pattern of multi-category simultaneous impact-oil and gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemical, helium and trade shipping are simultaneously damaged-also makes the global supply chain face the most complicated stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has continued to convey pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this language is the most cautionary of them.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Birol has made it clear that the root of the crisis lies not in energy itself, but in geopolitics, which also makes it deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently implementing real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries and energy terminals in the Gulf region.</p><p>75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third of which are severely damaged, and the repair works will cost up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>US dollars, and will cause a long-term disruption to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and exacerbating transportation pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point.</p><p>The rate of recovery differs significantly among the damaged countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia is expected to recover relatively quickly with its strong engineering capabilities and abundant financial resources; Iraq, on the other hand, has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching a critical point of economic paralysis, with some 15 million people dependent on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to return to this position.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports shut down across the board</strong></h2>In terms of production losses, Birol's description is striking. He said that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of the pre-war level; For natural gas, exports have stopped altogether.</p><p>In the time dimension, the situation is accelerating to deterioration. \"March has been tough, but April will be worse,\" Birol said. \"If the channel remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as we did in March.\"</p><p>He uses a metaphor for seasons: \"April in the northern hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But for now, it may feel like the beginning of winter. \"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the hardest hit groups, Birol prioritized developing countries.</p><p>He said that the combination of high oil and gas prices and high food prices to accelerate inflation will deal a heavy blow to economic growth in these countries. \"I am worried that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>In terms of countries with higher specific exposure risk, Birol named Asia's oil import-dependent economies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries is that they have limited fiscal room to maneuver and are difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: geopolitically driven, the path to repair is full of uncertainty</strong></h2>Birol repeatedly emphasized in the interview that there is an essential difference between this crisis and previous energy supply shocks in history-it does not stem from the supply and demand imbalance of the energy market itself, but the result of geopolitical conflicts directly destroying physical infrastructure.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and repair path are highly dependent on the political situation, and the market pricing mechanism is difficult to play an effective role.</p><p>The pattern of multi-category simultaneous impact-oil and gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemical, helium and trade shipping are simultaneously damaged-also makes the global supply chain face the most complicated stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has continued to convey pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this language is the most cautionary of them.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159945":"能源","BK4129":"建筑与工程","IEA":"Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc.","REET":"iShares Trust iShares Global REIT ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769406","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625302879","content_text":"国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol发出迄今最严厉警告：此次海湾能源冲击的烈度超过1973年、1979年与2022年危机的总和，全球经济正濒临一场多维度的供应崩溃。\nBirol周二接受法国《费加罗报》采访时披露，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中约三分之一受到严重破坏。\n他表示，若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损失的原油与成品油数量将达三月份的两倍——\"我们正在进入一个'黑色四月'\"。\n此次危机的破坏力之所以前所未有，在于其波及范围已远超单纯的石油领域，同时冲击天然气、粮食、化肥、石化产品、氦气及全球贸易体系。Birol明确表示，这场危机的根源不在于能源本身，而在于地缘政治，这也令其对前景深感悲观。\n75处能源设施受损，修复之路漫长\nIEA目前正对海湾地区的油田、炼油厂与能源终端实施实时监控。\n75处设施已遭袭击并受损，逾三分之一损毁严重，修缮工程耗资将达数百亿美元，且将造成部分能源流的长期中断，进一步收紧全球供应，并加剧霍尔木兹海峡这一关键咽喉要道的运输压力。\n在各受损国中，恢复速度分化显著。\nBirol指出，沙特阿拉伯凭借强大的工程能力与充裕的财政资源，有望相对较快恢复；而伊拉克的处境则远为严峻，约1500万人依赖油气收入为生，该国已损失约三分之二的石油收入，正逼近经济瘫痪的临界点。他说：\n\n\"中东此前一直是全球可靠的能源枢纽，要恢复到这一地位，将需要很长时间。\"\n\n产量腰斩，天然气出口全面停摆\n在产量损失方面，Birol的描述触目惊心。他表示，相关国家目前的石油产量仅略超战前水平的一半；天然气方面，出口已完全停止。\n在时间维度上，形势正加速恶化。\"三月份已经很艰难，但四月将更糟，\"Birol说，\"如果海峡整个四月持续关闭，我们损失的原油和成品油将是三月份的两倍。\"\n他以季节作喻：\"北半球的四月通常意味着春天的到来，但现在，它可能感觉像是冬天的开始。\"\n发展中国家首当其冲，亚非经济体面临债务危机\n在受冲击最严重的群体中，Birol将发展中国家列为重点。\n他表示，高油价、高气价与高粮食价格叠加加速通胀，将对这些国家的经济增长造成沉重打击。\"我担心许多发展中国家的外债将大幅攀升，\"他说。\n就具体暴露风险较高的国家而言，Birol点名亚洲的石油进口依赖型经济体，包括韩国、日本，以及印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南、巴基斯坦和孟加拉国，同时指出非洲国家也将受到严重波及。\n上述国家共同的脆弱性在于财政腾挪空间有限，难以抵御持续的外部能源价格冲击。\n危机性质：地缘政治驱动，修复路径充满不确定性\nBirol在采访中反复强调，此次危机与历史上历次能源供应冲击存在本质差异——它并非源于能源市场自身的供需失衡，而是地缘政治冲突直接摧毁物理基础设施的结果。\n这一属性决定了其持续时间和修复路径高度依赖政治局势走向，市场定价机制难以有效发挥作用。\n此次多品类同步受冲击的格局——油气、粮食、化肥、石化、氦气与贸易航运同步受损——亦令全球供应链面临有史以来最复杂的压力测试。\nBirol数周来已在多场公开采访中持续传递悲观预期，此次措辞为其中最为警示性的一次。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159945":1.5,"IEA":1.5,"REET":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}