JPM says TLSA will fall by -60%. Will it ? Run ?
This is hot off the press.
On Mon, 6 Apr 2026, it was reported that $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ is looking for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ stock to lose a good amount of its charge.
According to JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman:
He observed an anormally forming in TSLA.
The Bad News.
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Experts have lowered their expectations for TSLA’s success.
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They predict that TSLA will struggle with sales and profits from now until end 2030.
In the financial world, these "collapsed" expectations usually mean a stock should go down.
The Contradiction.
Despite “bad” predictions for the next few years, TSLA’s stock price actually went up by +50%.
At the same time, analysts raised their target prices for the company by +32%.
The market has simply ignored TSLA’s predicted struggles over the next few years.
Instead, it is betting that the company will perform incredibly well in the next decade (after 2030).
The advise.
In summary, below is Brinkman’s open recommendations:
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Suggests that investors should be (a) careful and (b) look at the risks of the business and (c) note the impact of waiting a long time for profits.
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Investors must stay alert because they will be betting on a huge improvement that “supposedly will happen” after 2030, contrary to the current trend of weak results.
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“Sell” TSLA because he sees the price target at $145 eventually; that is about -58.90% crash from Mon, 06 Apr 2026 closing price of $358.82 /share, off its 16 Dec 2025’s peak of $489.88 /share.
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Not to mention the automaker’s prohibitive 334x trailing P/E valuation.
YTD Performance.
As of Mon, 06 Apr 2026 end day
TSLA shares are already down almost -20% in 2026 (so far), making it one of the worst-performing member of the "Magnificent Seven" complex. (see above)
According to Yahoo Finance, Brinkman's price target is somewhat of an outlier on Wall Street, where the average analyst price target is $360.
The Financial Catalyst.
Obviously, the warning arises as concerns over TSLA's financial performance continue to swirl.
On 26 Mar 2026, TSLA reported its delivery of 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, missing analyst estimates of roughly 366,000 - 370,000 units or between -2.18% to -3.24%.
Latest number still paints the picture of a company still struggling to return to meaningful growth after two consecutive years (or eight successive quarters) of declining sales.
Although this represents a +6.3% YoY increase from Q1 2025 of 336,681 vehicles delivered, the growth came from a depressed baseline.
The absolute numbers showed a significant sequential decline from its record-breaking Q4 2025’s delivery of 418,227 vehicles.
The headwinds Tesla is facing remain numerous.
What Headwinds?
(1) US Tax Credit.
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Expiry of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit in the US at the end of 2025 by the Trump administration - dealt a major blow to domestic demand for electric vehicles.
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Additionally, persistent high interest rates have made vehicle financing more expensive for the average buyer.
(2) Competition.
The auto maker is facing brutal pressure from :
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Chinese EV rivals like $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$.
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Legacy automakers - Mercedes-Benz, $General Motors(GM)$ and $Ford(F)$, that continue to forge ahead with EV production, though at a slower pace.
The Remedy.
To keep passionate TSLA bulls engaged, CEO Elon Musk is promising 2026 will be a big year for new products.
Investors should know by now never to take the CEO’s words to heart because its plain unreliable.
Robotaxi.
TSLA’s dedicated robotaxi (Cybercab), a vehicle designed without a steering wheel or pedals, is slated to begin initial production in April 2026.
It will be at the center of Tesla's new autonomous ridesharing network.
Optimus.
At the same time, the CEO is also accelerating the training of its Optimus humanoid robot, with the goal of deploying it for "repetitive or boring tasks" within its own factories by the end of 2026.
Investors will do well to remember the two dates and hold the CEO accountable.
My viewpoints (mine only).
As of early April 2026, TSLA appears to be navigating a challenging period.
Outlook & Challenges
The roadmap for TSLA’s autonomous future faces significant headwinds.
Recent reports indicate that the "Cybercab" or robotaxi program is grappling with leadership instability, highlighted by the departure of Mark Lupkey - leader of the Cybercab assembly and end-of-line ramp, was described as the third senior Cybercab-related exit in just over a month. (see below)
Furthermore, TSLA narrative of true autonomy is being questioned by revelations that TSLA’s current robotaxi strategy may rely on remote human drivers to intervene during complex situations. (see below)
This suggests that a fully autonomous, scalable network remains technically elusive, potentially delaying the "big year" promised by leadership.
With 8 months to go, will Mr CEO planned, massive rollout of robotaxi across America, comes true ? Your guess is as good as mine. This was his “promise”, no ?
Compounding these operational issues is the perception of a leadership void.
The CEO's attention appears increasingly diverted toward the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which targets a June 2026 roadshow with a valuation goal of $175 billion.
This pattern of shifting focus toward high-profile, spotlight-grabbing ventures often leaves TSLA’s core manufacturing and service divisions vulnerable.
Again, another recent departure of the Head of Customer Experience - Jose del Corral to Coinbase (see below) further suggests a "talent exodus" as the company struggles to maintain its internal culture while the CEO focuses on external financial catalysts that provide more immediate personal and public visibility.
Technical Analysis and Performance
As of 07 April 2026 end day
TSLA have struggled significantly in the past month. As of April 7, 2026, the stock has declined almost -21% YTD, trailing behind its peers in the "Magnificent Seven."
Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
On 07 Apr 2026, TSLA closed at $346.65 /share.
It is currently trading below its Simple moving averages (SMA) of 20-day ($379.06), 50-day ($399.50), and 200-day ($397.22).
This is a particularly bearish signal was observed when the S&P 500 fell below its own 200-day average, dragging high-beta stocks like TSLA further down.
The failure to reclaim these key levels suggests a lack of buying support and a sustained downtrend.
If you observe closely, TSLA’s 50-day SMA is about to cross over its 200-day SMA forming a “Death Cross” if stock price continues to tumble.
MACD.
The MACD line (-13.16) and the Signal line (-11.16) are below the Zero line.
With the MACD trailing below the Signal line, TSLA’s short-term momentum is significantly weaker than its long-term momentum, indicative of a strong bearish moment.
Its Divergence of -2.0 indicates increasing bearish momentum.
RSI:
Its 14-day RSI coming in at “34.70”, is hovering near the "oversold" threshold of 30.
Although this can sometimes indicate a temporary bounce, in the context of declining Q1 deliveries and missed analyst expectations, it primarily underscores the intensity of the recent selling pressure.
Above MACD readings align with a "Strong Sell" technical outlook.
Rounding off, the contradiction between a rising price-to-earnings ratio (334x) and deteriorating fundamentals suggests that the market may be pricing in post-2030 successes that have yet to be proven.
For shareholders still in profit, taking some chips off the table while the gain is still intact can be a prudent risk-management move. Agree ?
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