To The Moon

This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.

Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)

Course Link

1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situation

Most assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound when the situation eases. Recent market moves are still mainly about repricing geopolitical risk.

That said, gold and Treasuries have not behaved exactly as expected. Gold, despite its safe-haven reputation, has not been especially strong, partly because earlier gains reduced its appeal at current levels; Treasuries have also failed to act as a clear shelter, suggesting that views on dollar assets are shifting.

At this stage, the market looks more like it is in a ceasefire-driven recovery than at the start of a broad bull market in risk assets. U.S. stocks, by contrast, remain one of the stronger and more resilient parts of the risk-asset space.

2. Over the next few weeks, there are three main possible paths for the situation

The first scenario is a near-term long-term agreement, though this is seen as unlikely. If it happens, oil would likely fall while risk assets and U.S. stocks could move higher.

The second scenario is that the current ceasefire is only a pause before conflict resumes. This is viewed as the more likely path. If talks break down, oil could rise again while most risk assets come under renewed pressure.

The third scenario is a prolonged fight-and-talk pattern, with neither a quick deal nor an immediate full escalation. In that case, markets are more likely to stay volatile and headline-driven.

3. Crude oil reacts first to geopolitical change, while the logic across major assets is increasingly divergent

Crude oil is the most important indicator in this entire framework and the most direct price signal for judging geopolitical developments. When oil rises, it usually means the market is once again pricing in escalation. When oil falls, it typically means the market is pricing in easing tensions or progress toward an agreement. In terms of price ranges, if oil moves above $120, it suggests the market is likely pricing in a more intense new phase of conflict. If oil falls back below $80, that would be more consistent with improving negotiations and cooling risks. If it remains between $80 and $120, that would better match a volatile “fight-and-talk” environment.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2606(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2605(QMmain)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $Marathon Petroleum(MPC)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(MCLmain)$ $ETFS WTI CRUDE OIL(CRUD.UK)$

Within the current market framework, U.S. stocks still occupy a relatively strong position among risk assets. They are seen as a core asset that the U.S. government and Trump are least willing to see break down, and they are viewed as the last fortress among U.S. dollar assets. Before the midterm elections, the probability of a systemic collapse in U.S. equities is considered relatively low. Even if the situation later develops into a ground war, U.S. stocks are more likely to experience a temporary pullback than to enter a clear bear market immediately. Only under more extreme circumstances, such as a visibly unfavorable U.S. military outcome that causes markets to question America’s strategic dominance, would U.S. stocks likely face a deeper repricing. Based on the current view, U.S. stocks do not look likely to undergo a dramatic short-squeeze-style surge. A “slow bull” continuation remains more likely. If an agreement is reached quickly, they may accelerate higher for a period before returning to a slow-bull pattern. If the situation remains unresolved, they are more likely to stay range-bound but relatively firm.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$ $ProShares UltraPro S&P500 ETF(UPRO)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(YMmain)$ $Micro E-mini Dow Jones - main 2606(MYMmain)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$

Crypto assets are viewed more as a supplementary signal. Bitcoin in particular is seen as a sensitive indicator of risk appetite. If Bitcoin falls below 60,000, it often means the market is once again trading the logic of war escalation. If it rises above 98,000 or even 100,000, it would be more consistent with a negotiated outcome and a recovery in risk appetite. If it only rebounds to around 80,000 and then turns lower again, that would suggest the market is still more likely in a volatile, indecisive phase. Crypto is not necessarily the most reliable indicator, but it is often more sensitive to shifts in sentiment. In terms of the broader trend, the crypto market appears to be transitioning from bull to bear and is not seen as a primary bullish area at the moment.

$Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2604(BTCmain)$

Gold and the broader precious metals complex were also discussed extensively. Gold did not fully display its safe-haven function in this cycle, mainly because its commodity characteristics played a larger role and because the earlier rally had already consumed a great deal of future buying power. In other words, gold has not lost its long-term value. Rather, at current price levels, the market is finding it hard to continue treating it as a highly attractive defensive asset. At the same time, silver, platinum, and other precious metals have already shown fairly clear signs of topping and high-level correction, which could also weigh on gold. Structurally, after losing key levels earlier and then making new lows, gold is no longer simply consolidating in a strong uptrend. It looks more like an asset that may still need further adjustment after a rebound, rather than one entering a fresh bull market. Only if prices fall back into the 2,900 to 3,500 range would gold look more attractive from a medium- to long-term investment perspective and become more likely to draw fresh safe-haven and allocation demand.

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2606(MGCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2606(1OZmain)$ $E-mini Gold - main 2606(QOmain)$ $USD Gold Futures - main 2604(GDUmain)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $ProShares Ultra Gold(UGL)$

U.S. Treasuries also failed to display typical safe-haven characteristics in this market cycle. If the United States performs poorly in the war and the market becomes more skeptical of dollar hegemony and the stability of U.S. dollar assets, Treasuries could also come under significant downward pressure. A situation in which stocks, bonds, and the dollar all face pressure at the same time is not impossible. It is simply more likely to be priced in only after a more extreme and prolonged conflict outcome emerges.

The logic for the U.S. dollar is more mixed. In the short term, the dollar and oil prices have shown a certain degree of positive linkage in the current phase. When tensions escalate and oil rises, the dollar may stage a tactical rebound. But over a longer cycle, if the United States loses control and influence in geopolitical conflicts, dollar hegemony could gradually weaken. For that reason, the long-term bias remains bearish on the dollar. In terms of timing, the dollar index can first be watched around support near 97 in the medium and short term, where some rebound is possible. But over the longer term, the direction is still seen as moving toward the 88 to 90 area, and in an extreme case, potentially even lower.

$10-YR T-NOTE - main 2606(ZNmain)$ $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$

4. Trading strategy should be based on geopolitical developments and price signals

In terms of strategy, the core idea is to respond to how the scenarios evolve rather than to bet in advance on a single outcome. If a long-term agreement is unexpectedly reached within the next two to four weeks, the most direct trade would be lower crude oil and catch-up gains in risk assets. In that case, investors could focus on a short-oil, long-risk-assets structure, with U.S. stocks being the better choice for a more conservative approach. If negotiations fail and the market moves into a new round of high-intensity conflict, crude oil would become the key bullish asset, while most other risk assets would again come under pressure.

For the U.S. dollar, the long-term view remains bearish, but the short-term outlook still requires flexible observation based on shifts in the geopolitical situation and oil prices. If the dollar index rebounds near support levels in the medium or short term, that can still be interpreted as event-driven volatility. However, the bigger picture remains one of selling into rallies.

As for gold, the current risk-reward profile is still not attractive. It looks more like a rebound within a correction than the start of a new bull market. In the short term, the preferred strategy is still to sell into strength, or to wait for more attractive levels before considering medium- or long-term positioning. If gold genuinely falls back into the 2,900 to 3,500 range, then dollar-cost averaging, swing trading, or range strategies could be reconsidered.

For crude oil, aside from tracking geopolitical developments, the speaker also mentioned the possibility of placing buy orders at extreme price levels. Even if an unexpected agreement causes a sharp short-term drop in oil prices, the view remains that the midline and lower boundary of oil’s trading range will have shifted higher overall. That means buying at extreme lows could still make sense. If by mid-May there is still neither a ground war nor a formal agreement, then crude oil would most likely enter a range-bound market, making buy-low, sell-high strategies within the range more suitable.

As for U.S. stocks, the overall view remains that the market is still in a slow-bull phase, and it is not advisable to short against the trend too easily. If one has not yet entered the market, it may be better to wait another one to three weeks until the geopolitical picture becomes clearer. Compared with other risk assets, U.S. equities are still regarded as one of the more attractive choices.

5. Additional discussion: the Nikkei, RMB settlement, and the U.S. dollar index

In the final Q&A session, several additional issues were also discussed. Regarding the Nikkei, the overall view was that Japanese equities may still have room to move higher as long as U.S. stocks remain firm. However, their medium- to long-term risk is greater than that of U.S. equities, especially because they are more vulnerable to fluctuations in East Asian geopolitics. That means a more cautious view is warranted going forward.

Regarding RMB settlement, the share of Middle Eastern oil trade settled in renminbi has already increased and now exceeds 10 percent. However, the probability of complete de-dollarization remains low. If the United States were to acknowledge failure in the Middle East and gradually withdraw, the share of RMB settlement could continue to rise, but fully replacing the dollar is still not considered realistic.

As for the U.S. dollar index, the supplementary view remains consistent with the earlier discussion. In the short to medium term, support should first be watched around 97, but over the long run the direction is still seen as lower. The core strategy remains to sell the dollar on rallies.

6. Key Section Overview

00:00 Asset Price Logic, Characteristics of U.S. Stocks, and a Review of Earlier Judgments
This section mainly discusses the price behavior of market assets. The current trading logic for most assets is that they fall when the war intensifies, and rebound when the situation eases or a ceasefire emerges. In this round, gold has shown the characteristics of a risk asset, though that could change later if the decline becomes deep enough. U.S. Treasuries did not play their usual safe-haven role, while U.S. stocks were described as the last fortress. At this stage, risk assets are in a recovery market, and U.S. stocks have shown strong resilience, though they could still see catch-up downside if the situation deteriorates. The speaker also noted that an earlier judgment about the late timing of Trump’s announcement of withdrawal had affected the market landscape.

03:38 The Direction of the U.S.-Iran Situation and the Impact of an Agreement on Oil Prices
This section discusses the next-stage decisions of the United States and Trump, arguing that the ultimate choice lies with the United States and Israel. Broadly speaking, there are three possible scenarios, but only two final outcomes in essence. The likelihood of reaching a long-term ceasefire agreement in the short term is considered low, because neither Trump nor Iran is willing to have failure reflected in the agreement. If such an agreement were unexpectedly reached, oil prices would likely plunge, while risk assets such as U.S. stocks would likely see catch-up gains. In that case, one could short oil and go long risk assets.

07:07 Investment Advice on U.S. Stocks, and Analysis of the U.S.-Iran Conflict and Oil Price Direction
This section mainly discusses investment and the military situation. From an investment perspective, those seeking stability may want to focus more on U.S. stocks, while those seeking higher returns may look for smaller-cap assets favored by capital flows. On the military side, the view is that the United States is adopting a delaying tactic. After reassessment, if action is taken, negotiations could collapse within two to four weeks or move into a new stage, possibly involving a ground offensive or strikes on civilian facilities. In that case, oil prices would rise while other assets would fall, and the later evolution would still need to be reassessed, with trading positioned accordingly.

12:14 The “Fight-and-Talk” Situation May Continue Until Before the Midterm Elections
This section discusses the “fight-and-talk” scenario and argues that it is a delaying tactic. If no agreement is reached in April or May and there is no major escalation, this unstable peace will most likely continue until the October-November midterm elections. During that period, volatility and back-and-forth market action will be the main theme. At the time of the midterm elections, the United States is expected to act, pushing the market into the second scenario. Over the next one to three weeks, the three possible paths should become clearer, and trades can be structured accordingly.

14:48 Oil Price Fluctuations Reflect the Situation, and Different Price Levels Correspond to Different Scenarios
This section points out that crude oil prices can serve as a reference indicator for geopolitical developments. Even without following the news, one can roughly judge the situation through oil price movements alone. If oil rises above 120 and breaks above the previous high, it would suggest that a new phase of conflict has begun, such as a ground war or attacks on civilian facilities. If the two sides reach an agreement, oil would at least fall below 80 and could even move toward 70. Over roughly the next month, there is also the possibility that there will be neither a clear outcome nor any major change.

15:30 Oil’s Trading Range and What Different Bitcoin Moves May Signal
This section mainly discusses oil and crypto assets. Oil is expected to fluctuate within the 80-120 range, while crypto assets have shown relatively strong resilience and some leading characteristics in this rebound. Using Bitcoin as an example, a drop below 60,000 may mean war or some major development is returning to the market narrative. A breakout above 98,000 or even 100,000 would be bullish. Under normal circumstances, if Bitcoin only rebounds to around 80,000 and then falls back or returns to a range, that would suggest limited change on the news front.

16:15 Risk Analysis and Outlook for U.S. Stocks, and Prospects for the Crypto Market
This section mainly discusses U.S. stocks and Bitcoin. The risk window for U.S. stocks is considered relatively low, and the probability of a crash or a shift into a bear market before the midterm elections is seen as limited. The market may continue in a slow bull trend, or accelerate for a period and then return to a slow bull pace. The core risk would be the collapse of dollar hegemony, with the timing possibly around the midterm elections. The speaker does not recommend shorting U.S. stocks too easily. Bitcoin is treated mainly as a reference, while the crypto market as a whole is seen as shifting from bull to bear and is not favored.

19:34 Gold Investment Analysis Under the U.S.-Iran Situation and the Reasonable Price Range
This section mainly discusses why gold has performed poorly under the U.S.-Iran situation. Last year, gains in other precious metals led gold higher, which excessively pulled forward buying demand, and now most precious metals are showing signs of topping out, which may also weigh on gold. At present, gold does not offer attractive value for money, and its safe-haven function has not been reflected. The view is that the long-term investment range for gold is 2,900-3,500, and gradual buying can begin from 3,500. If prices do not fall that far, short-term speculation may be considered first.

25:28 Long-Term Bearish View on the Dollar; a Failed U.S. Ground War Could Push It Lower
This section mainly summarizes recent trades and strategy. Speaker 1 holds a long-term bearish view on the U.S. dollar, arguing that after the U.S.-Iran conflict, changes in America’s dominance on the battlefield could have a major impact on dollar hegemony. There is currently profit potential in long GBP positions, and other non-dollar currencies may also be worth watching. In this round of market moves, the dollar and oil have been moving in the same direction. If the United States launches a ground war and performs poorly, dollar assets could come under downward pressure, making long-term dollar bearishness the main strategic view.

27:25 Gold Lacks Attractive Value, May Correct Further, and Is Better Sold on Strength in the Short Term
This section mainly discusses the outlook for gold. Gold does not offer attractive value at the moment, and the current move is seen as a rebound within a ceasefire-related recovery rather than the start of a new bull market. Its structure is problematic. Although it has held up slightly better than silver, it later made a new low, suggesting that another round of adjustment is needed before value reappears. The speaker mentioned that earlier limit orders had not been filled, and that in the short cycle the preference is still to sell gold on rallies.

28:19 Long Crude Oil Strategy and Trading Ideas Under Different Scenarios
This section mainly discusses crude oil trading strategy. Relatively extreme low-price buy orders were placed, on the view that if unexpected news triggers a sharp short-term correction in oil, long entries at low levels would offer attractive value. If by mid-May there is neither a ground war nor an agreement, the market is expected to remain range-bound. In that case, the main focus would be on range trading, with attempts to buy low and sell high within an 80-to-100-plus range.

29:27 Recent Judgment on the U.S. Stock Market and Risk Notes on Trading Ideas
This section introduces the recent market view and trading strategy. As for U.S. stocks, the suggestion is to maintain a slow-bull mindset. Those who have not yet entered may wait one to three weeks for the outcome to become clearer before making a choice. U.S. stocks are viewed as the best option among risk assets. The speaker also noted that updates and order placements are made weekly in the column, while reminding listeners that trading involves risk and final decisions should be made according to each person’s own situation.

31:05 Weekly Summary and Suggested Buy-the-Dip Approach for U.S. Stocks
In this section, Speaker 1 concluded the week’s discussion and asked whether there were any questions. In response to the question “Have U.S. stocks stabilized?”, the answer was clear: U.S. stocks have already stabilized and made new highs. The speaker emphasized that even if one is bearish on U.S. stocks, they should not be shorted lightly before an actual breakdown occurs, because U.S. stocks are an important strategic pillar for the United States and for Trump. The preferred approach should be buying on dips rather than trading against the trend.

32:50 Post-New-High Outlook for the Nikkei and Risk Comparison with U.S. Stocks
This section mainly discusses the Nikkei after making new highs. The speaker believes that as long as U.S. stocks remain strong, the Nikkei may still have upside room. However, unlike U.S. stocks, Japanese equities have been driven by political decisions over the past two years and by yen depreciation, while the current political environment is unfavorable. As a result, their medium- to long-term risk is greater than that of U.S. stocks. The suggestion is to remain cautious even when bullish on Japanese equities, because if East Asian tensions change, the pressure on Japanese stocks would be significantly greater than the potential risk faced by U.S. stocks.

34:11 The Share of RMB Settlement in the Middle East Has Increased, but Full De-Dollarization Remains Difficult
This section discusses RMB settlement in the Middle East. The share of oil settled in RMB in the Middle East has already risen to second place and increased significantly, but the probability of complete de-dollarization remains low. A further major increase in RMB settlement would require the United States to acknowledge failure and withdraw from the Middle East, but relying exclusively on RMB settlement is unrealistic. Iran is a sovereign state, and full RMB-only settlement would not necessarily be beneficial for China either.

36:04 Analysis of the Dollar’s Trend and Strategic Suggestions, with More to Be Discussed Next Week
This section mainly discusses the U.S. dollar index and trading strategy. In the short to medium term, the dollar has support around 97.0 and may rebound, while over the long run it is expected to fall at least toward 88-90, and possibly even to 82, implying about 20% depreciation room. Its short-term movement is highly correlated with oil and strongly affected by headlines. The recommended strategy is still to sell the dollar on rallies. This week’s focus was mainly on U.S. stocks and gold, while next week’s discussion will depend on the negotiation outcome and may center on new narratives or assets showing trend opportunities.