$SPY Playbook: Bleed, Then Rip
This is Trump's midterm year. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashed from $697 to $629 so far. Its at $712 right now.
The average drawdown for any given midterm year is 20%. Trump says he will have to end ceasefire and peace agreement with Iran this weekend.
You'll get 1 more chance to buy the dip.
Every midterm year since 1974. Its the same pattern.
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1974 Ford: −35% → +38% a year later
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1978 Carter: −15% → +24%
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1982 Reagan: −17% → +58%
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1986 Reagan: −10% → +35%
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1990 Bush: −20% → +29%
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1994 Clinton: −8% → +37%
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1998 Clinton: −22% → +40%
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2002 Bush: −34% → +34%
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2006 Bush: −8% → +24%
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2010 Obama: −17% → +30%
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2014 Obama: −10% → +17%
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2018 Trump: −20% → +37%
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2022 Biden: −27% → +25%
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2026 Trump: -10% so far...
Avg drawdown: −19%
Avg 1-yr from the bottom: +33%
13 for 13. Never missed.
The market doesn't care who's president.
It bleeds. Then it rips.
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