To The Moon

🎉Global markets have cheered since the 8 April two-week ceasefire between the US-Israel and Iran

Investors appear to be betting that "peak uncertainty" has passed, with crude oil now trading comfortably below the USD 100/barrel mark and stocks experiencing a relief rally

Some markets such as the US S&P and Japan’s Nikkei225 are in fact trading at higher levels than before the war began

Is the market complacent?

📝In a note published on Friday 17 April 2026, Macquarie’s Sales and Trading desk (S&T) discusses what the current rally suggests, as well as their view on the war

👀Read on for important disclaimers

This communication has been prepared by Sales and Trading (S&T) Personnel at Macquarie and is not a product of the Macquarie Research Department. For important disclosures relating to this communication, please see: www.macquarie.com/salesandtradingdisclaimer

​​​​​​​Main points

S&T thinks that a return to the status quo ante bellum with regard to Iran's nuclear capabilities would be more politically damaging to the President, S&T thinks, than ending the War without that major concession. That's why S&T continues to look for concrete signs of a "nuclear concession" by Iran - rather than just a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz - to verify that the War is really over.

S&T senses that there's is an implied and tentative compromise among the Fed's 'mainstream' hawks and doves to communicate a "wait and see" attitude toward the medium-term policy rate outlook. That "movement to the center" is likely to be the dominant tone of Fed communications until the next FOMC meeting in two weeks, including in today's communications from Three Fed officials

Discussion

The 'peace' narrative that has kept risk assets on a rising trend since early last week seemed to be in force again yesterday and this morning with reports of dialogue and concessions being made in indirect talks between the US and Iran. Now, admittedly, the reports are all one-sided; they seem to be emitting from the US and President Donald Trump, and point to concessions that Iran wants to make to the US to end the War between the two sides. There is little public evidence yet that the US has made concessions, and no explicit mention of concessions (made by either side) coming from Iran's officials. As such, traders have been obligated to take Trump at his word when Trump says that “Iran wants to make a deal.... they are willing to do things today that they weren’t willing to do two months ago.”

Trump may be suggesting, of course, that Iran is desperate to make a deal, and that the War (and the US's blockade) has made Iran desperate. There's an obvious tone of the usual motivational self-congratulation there, by the US President. But S&T would feel more confident in the prospect of a peace agreement if the market heard positive signals from both sides, of course. Trust in the market's rally, at this junction, requires trust in Trump alone. No other party in the conflict or peripheral to the conflict has been equally vocally confident in the prospect of peace through superior firepower.

Should traders trust the President so much? The reasons for him to lie are generally well understood. Politically, it is believed that the President can continue to prosecute the War longer if the stock market performs well, and if gasoline prices do not rise excessively. But this ruse - if that's what it is - can't be sustained successfully if its purpose is to actually maintain the conflict for another round or two.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

​​​​​​​Learn how to use put warrants to hedge the short-term downside

Those who worry about persisting volatility on the downside given the geopolitical tensions can consider hedging with put warrants.

Put warrants move in opposite directions as the underlying. Meaning if stocks/indices came off, put warrants would generally move higher

For example, when the US-Israel-Iran war first broke out at the end of February, and the S&P500 dropped 4.6% in a month, S&P put warrant YMWW gained 74.6% to $0.110:

The Exposure Simulator tool helps calculate the warrant investment amount for those seeking the shelter of put warrants to hedge the short-term downside of their portfolio exposure. Here is a video demonstration of how to use the tool: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT6oleWgr00

Trending put warrants available:

$Alibaba MB ePW260703(9POW.SI)$

XWBW

$DBS MB ePW260930(JFXW.SI)$

$HSI 24400MBePW260528(HFFW.SI)$

$NKY 50000MBePW260911(LQCW.SI)$

WIBW

V8QW

X7NW

9GPW

$SIMSCI 410MBePW260629(RIDW.SI)$

UCCW