To The Moon

The quest to be #1 always has a certain ring to it. After all being in pole position is a privilege, not a given.

This honour applies to a myriad of things and naturally the smartphone - the world’s 21st century invention is no exceptions.

Similarly, Journalists always strive to be first with the story.

However, it pays to be last sometimes; especially when there are conflicting sources of information.

Statistically.

According to Counterpoint’s recent reading of global smartphone shipments, $Apple(AAPL)$ is now tops in smartphone shipments with +5% YoY growth and 21% market share in Q1 2026.

Separately, according to IDC’s recent data though, $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ is tops with +3.6% YoY growth and 21.7% market share. (see below)

Samsung vs Apple - Comparison by Shipment

More statistics.

As for YoY growth, SSNLF both grew +3.6% (IDC) and lost -6% (Counterpoint) in Q1 2026, while AAPL grew +3.3% (IDC) while also growing +5% (Counterpoint) in the same period. (see below)

YoY Growth - where divergence shows

To top it all off, overall smartphone market is both down -4.1% (IDC) and -6% (Counterpoint).

Now what ?

So, what happened ?

What we have, were two of the world’s most closely watched technology research firms examining:

• The same global market.

• Over the same three-month period.

• With access to overlapping supply chain and sell-through data.

With both of them, fundamentally disagreeing on:

• Who is No. 1 ?

• How bad the smartphone market is (presently).

• Samsung’s performance.

It happens, of course.

Afterall, the real world is complex and data sources are diverse and worse, divergent.

The biggest problem, however, is probably something any data janitor (read, data scientist) would recognize - definitions.

The biggest part of the gap likely comes from methodology - how much weight each firm gives to factory shipment records versus channel inventory checks versus sell-through data.

And critically as noted by Counterpoint:

• How they handle OEMs that frontloaded shipments, ahead of anticipated component price hikes.

• Count those shipments as Q1 2026 or don’t.

With that, the Samsung numbers change dramatically.

Good News ?

The good news (?) is that a data disagreement could not occur at a more opportune time, as the global frenzy over AI drives memory chips prices upward while geopolitical conflicts exacerbate supply chain pressures.

The other good news is both IDC and Counterpoint are pretty synced on the big picture.

That is :

• Global smartphone shipments broke a 10 consecutive quarter growth streak that had run since mid-2023.

• Due to fading AI hype, that growth has now turned into a decline.

According to Counterpoint, Senior analyst, Shilpi Jain:

• Decline in shipments is primarily driven by memory players prioritizing AI data centers over consumer electronics.

• This left OEMs with compressed margins and forced them to pass increased Bills of Material (BOM) costs directly to consumers.

• While supplies remained constrained, several factors kept consumer sentiment for new devices low: (a) r

  ising energy prices, (b) h

  igher logistics costs and (c) economic uncertainty driven by Middle East tension.

• These conditions drove demand toward refurbished devices, further weighing on new shipments.

According to IDC, Research director (for mobile phones), Anthony Scarsella:

• The situation is likely to worsen, with the current 4% market decline serving as just a sample of what is to come.

• The memory shortage situation is intensifying on all fronts, creating a larger challenge than the pandemic did 5 years ago.

• Emerging markets focusing on sub-$200 devices will face the greatest impact: (a) c

  onsumers in these regions will be offered very few options and (b) rising cost of memory components now represents a primary obstacle for manufacturers.

• In several price-sensitive emerging markets, prices have already surged by 40–50%.

• Such price hikes are clearly significant in these markets, where consumers are highly sensitive to cost increases.

More Good News ?

Premium phone makers like AAPL are less price-exposed and that explains why AAPL grew, despite recent challenges.

It’s notable that Samsung has premium phones as well, likely adding to the mixed growth / loss reports.

Counterpoint has described AAPL:

• As the most insulated brand against the memory crisis due to its ultra-premium positioning and highly integrated supply chain.

• And notes that it has posted a +23% surge in China smartphone sales in the first 9 weeks of 2026.

• However, the same could not be said of Chinese smartphone makers, that are facing headwind conditions.

Chinese Smartphone Makers.

Both IDC and Counterpoint have forecasted Xiaomi’s drop at roughly -19% YoY, the steepest among the top 5 (namely - Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi and Honor).

Xiaomi faces acute pressure because of its heavy exposure to price-sensitive entry-level segments makes it highly vulnerable to rising memory costs.

IDC shows Oppo down nearly -10% and Vivo down nearly -7%, while Counterpoint sees Oppo down just -4% and Vivo down only -2%.

Both IDC and Counterpoint agree on a finding outside the top 5 Chinese smartphone: Honor, Nothing, and Google Pixel all grew strongly.

Honor and Nothing grew at +25% YoY and Google at +14% - driven by overseas expansion, distinctive design and niche positioning and edge AI capabilities respectively. (see below)

In particular, Nothing’s +25% growth tells an interesting story:

• Its brand differentiation and a coherent product identity helped carve out a meaningful share even in a contracting market.

• Also, as long as it is not competing in the budget segment that memory pricing is vaporizing.

Google’s Pixel gains are quieter but still meaningful, at a respectable +14% gain. In a market that is down -4% to –6% it is impressive growth.

Meanwhile, both Apple and Samsung can proudly report to their shareholders that they are number one.

AAPL, a BUY ?

After all that has been said and done, is AAPL still a worthy investment ?

Below is my personal take.

AAPL is navigating a complex but ultimately constructive environment as it approaches its earnings report, slated to drop on Thu, 30 Apr 2026, after market close.

(1) Sentiments & Price target.

Wall Street has recently turned more bullish on AAPL.

Multiple analysts have boosted its price targets ahead of earnings, citing stronger-than-expected iPhone demand and improved operational efficiency.

Consensus among analysts covering AAPL is a "Buy", with an average 12-month price target of $299.17. Based on Fri, 17 Apr 2026 closing price of $270.23 /share, that is an upside of +10.71%.

$Bank of America(BAC)$ went even as far as raising AAPL’s price target to $325 (from $320) with a “Buy” rating. This represents an upside of +20.27%, based off Friday’s closing.

(2) Earnings & Volatility dynamics.

AAPL is hovering above AI-related volatility heading into Q2 2026 earnings report, with BAC highlighting its relative stability compared to other AI-play stocks.

Options traders are positioning for a potentially significant post-earnings move, with one analysis suggesting a trade structure that offers a +27% reward relative to the risk around earnings.

This indicates market expectation of meaningful price action, but also heightened short-term volatility, “exacerbated’ by an expiring truce between US-Iran on Wed, 22 Apr 2026.

(3) Revenue & Growth - New drivers ?

At the same time, AAPL is doubling down on its advertising business, a segment previously under-emphasized but now seen as a major future revenue driver.

AAPL Advertising is expanding ad placements in the App Store and will soon introduce ads in Maps, with projected advertising revenue (for 2026) to hit around $8.5 billion.

Additionally, on 14 April 2026, AAPL launched its Apple Business Platform to (a) strengthen its enterprise offerings and (b) diversifying beyond consumer hardware. (see below)

The platform is available in more than 200 countries and regions.

It serves as a unified replacement for 3 previous services:

• Apple Business Manager.

• Apple Business Essentials.

• Apple Business Connect.

It achieves this by bringing device management, brand identity, and communication tools into a single interface.

The launch of "Apple Business Platform" clearly indicates a deepened commitment to Enterprise services, aiming to integrate its ecosystem more firmly into Corporate workflows.

(4) AI and Market Position.

While many of its tech peers have faced sharp swings due to AI-related speculation, AAPL is being positioned as a relatively safe harbour.

Its ability to stay above the "AI volatility" suggests that investors view its measured approach to integrating artificial intelligence as a stabilizing factor rather than a disadvantage.

Technical Analysis.

As usual, I like to round off a stock under analysis using its technical indicators (Simple moving average, MACD, RSI) to find out its near-term trajectory / movement.

Simple Moving Averages.

Based on 17 Apr 2026 closing price of $270.23 /share, AAPL is trending above its Simple moving averages (SMA) of 20-day ($256.39), 50-day ($260.56) and 200-day ($252.14).

AAPL’s SMA structure indicates robust, multi-timeframe bullish momentum.

The stock is in a confirmed uptrend with strong buying pressure, making it technically attractive for momentum investors.

It formed a “golden cross” on 12 Sep 2025 (see above), sealing the uptrend moment.

The alignment of price above all three SMAs, combined with rising volume and analyst upgrades, suggests the upward momentum is likely to continue in the near term unless a significant breakdown below the 50-day SMA ($260.56) occurs.

MACD.

AAPL’s MACD line (2.05) is above its Signal line (0.23) and both are above its Zero line, all indicating a strong bullish momentum.

With a large divergence (1.83) gap, AAPL shows momentum is accelerating upward.

RSI.

AAPL’s 14-day RSI comes in at 64.16 (at the upper neutral zone), indicating healthy bullish momentum with room for further upside before hitting overbought territory.

What does this means ?

For retirement-focused investors, AAPL's combination of (a) recurring Services revenue, (b) massive installed base, and (c) consistent buybacks makes it a core holding worth monitoring closely.

The $0.26 quarterly dividend is modest, but the capital return program is substantial.

That said, risks remain real, with the following live headwinds:

• Trade disputes.

• Greater China volatility.

• Ongoing US Dept of Justice (DOJ) antitrust case around Google's default search arrangement.

BAC's price target raise is a bullish signal, but a rational investor will wait for AAPL’s earnings results on 30 Apr 2026 to confirm the thesis before drawing firm conclusions.

With another 9 days to go before earnings are out, this week may not yet be the time to purchase AAPL shares.

Meanwhile, threats in the Middle East truce are real too. Any re-escalation into another scuffle will not be good for US market and certainly not for AAPL. Agree ?

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