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singsongone 1n
04-24 16:22

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If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?

即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。

If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?

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Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-24 16:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147543947","content_text":"高盛最新研报给出了审慎答案：海湾地区高达1450万桶/日的减产，即便海峡解封，3个月后也仅能恢复70%，6个月后恢复88%。油轮运力骤降50%、油井修复复杂性随停产时长指数级攀升、储层压力不可逆变化……多重硬性约束叠加\"疤痕效应\"，让这场产能重建之路远比市场预期的更为漫长。即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。然而，对于原油投资者而言，真正的博弈点在于尾部风险：如果海峡关闭时间显著延长，最后阶段的产能恢复将耗时更久，甚至可能无法完全兑现。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。核心制约：运输瓶颈与油井物理特性一旦海峡安全重开，产能恢复并不能一蹴而就，而是面临三大硬性物理与物流约束：去库存的运输能力：管道容量和空船可用性是关键。自战争爆发以来，海湾地区可用的空油轮容量已大幅下降约50%（减少了1.3亿桶，即130 mb）。尽管历史上霍尔木兹海峡的流量峰值曾达到2330万桶/日（正常水平为2000万桶/日），且管道改道峰值曾高出正常水平350万桶/日，但运力紧张仍是首要瓶颈。供应链与劳动力：油田修井作业所需的材料和工人可用性将直接影响复产进度。油井流率的复杂性：强制减产会导致不同类型储层的压力和流率出现复杂变化。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。正如油服巨头哈里伯顿和威德福高管所言，油井关闭时间越长，重启的复杂性就越高，且无法保证能恢复到完全相同的流率。时间是最大的敌人：关闭越久，恢复越慢研报明确指出，海峡实际关闭的时间越长，减产持续的时间就越久，随后的产量恢复速度就越慢。这种延迟效应主要体现在三个方面：油井需要进行更复杂的修复工作。枯竭的投入品（如钻杆）采购速度变慢。积压库存的去化将更长时间地挤占新产量的运输能力。稳健恢复的底气：物理损伤有限与核心产油国的备用产能尽管存在上述制约，高盛依然认为产能能在几个月内实现“大部分恢复”，主要基于以下三个逻辑：物理破坏有限：与液化天然气（LNG）资产形成鲜明对比的是，目前公开报道显示，油田遭受的物理损坏仍然非常有限。沙特阿美的快速响应能力：沙特阿美总裁兼CEO在3月份曾表示，沙特拥有充足的备用产能，且在某些地区采取的是限制油井流量而非完全关闭的措施，因此产量可以在“几天内，而不是几周内”迅速提升。历史经验与备用产能：历史上的供应中断事件表明，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋通常会部署其可用的备用产能来稳定市场。据估计，在全面安全重开后，两国可部署超过200万桶/日的备用产能。长期尾部风险：储层差异与潜在的“疤痕效应”对于长线投资者而言，必须警惕全面恢复可能需要数个季度，甚至在长期关闭后只能实现部分恢复的风险：油田与国家间的巨大差异：海湾各国在储层特征、基础设施完善度、维护水平以及制裁风险（如伊朗）方面存在显著差异。例如，数据显示，伊朗和伊拉克具有相对低压储层的产量份额高于海湾其他地区（近一半的伊朗储层被评估为低压），这增加了复产难度。历史恢复周期的不确定性：回顾历史上的减产事件，产量恢复的速度和程度存在巨大差异，而当前的冲击规模是史无前例的。战争复发的“疤痕风险”：虽然这不是基准预测，但如果敌对行动恢复，石油生产能力面临巨大“疤痕效应”（永久性损伤）的风险将显著上升，这在过去五次最大的石油供应冲击中已有先例。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}