To The Moon

$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ is set to report its latest quarterly results after the U.S. market close on April 29, 2026.

Options markets are flashing strong optimism into the print. Implied volatility (IV) has surged to 110.9%, with pricing suggesting a potential ±12% move in the shares following earnings. Open interest (OI) is heavily concentrated in call options, far outstripping puts. The May 142-strike call holds the largest OI, while block trades show aggressive upside bets — including more than $13 million deployed into long-dated $200 calls.

Earnings preview: growth seen moderating, focus on AI and autos

Consensus estimates point to a softer quarter:

• Revenue: expected at $10.92 billion, up 2.41% year-on-year

• Adjusted EPS: expected at $2.56, down 9.20% year-on-year

Investors are expected to focus on longer-term growth drivers, particularly artificial intelligence and automotive segments.

Options pricing signals elevated volatility

As of April 28, with shares at $150.26, options expiring May 1 imply:

• Implied volatility: 110.90%, near historical highs

• Expected move: ±11.61%

This translates to an implied trading range of $132.82 to $167.70 (one standard deviation), offering a quantitative gauge of near-term risk and reward.

Open interest skew highlights bullish bias

Positioning in the May 1 expiry underscores a clear directional tilt:

Top call OI:

• $142 strike: 8,822 contracts

• $150 strike: 4,340 contracts

• $160 strike: 3,654 contracts

Put/Call imbalance: Around the at-the-money $150 level, call OI exceeds put OI by more than 10 times — an extreme skew often interpreted as a strong bullish signal ahead of earnings.

Block trades: institutions position for upside

Large options flows reinforce the constructive outlook, with signs of both short-term positioning and longer-term conviction.

1. Core positioning: near-term call buying

A block trade of 2,500 May 142 calls, costing roughly $2.56 million, reflects a relatively conservative bullish stance — targeting a post-earnings upside move with limited risk.

$QCOM 20260501 142.0 CALL$

2. High-conviction bet: long-dated deep OTM calls
The standout trade:

• December 2026 $200 calls

$QCOM 20261218 200.0 CALL$

• Volume: 24,999 contracts

• Premium: ~$13.22 million

With a strike far above spot, this is not typical hedging activity. It suggests a large investor is using leverage to position for a substantial rally toward $200 over the coming months, signaling strong confidence in Qualcomm’s longer-term fundamentals.

3. Additional bullish flows

• ~$1.01 million deployed into 3,000 June $175 calls

$QCOM 20260618 175.0 CALL$

On the downside, bearish positioning remains limited:

• A single ~$245,000 trade in deep out-of-the-money $120 puts, likely a tail-risk hedge rather than a directional view.

Takeaway: layered bullish positioning

Options activity reflects a structured bullish setup:

• Short-term: directional call buying around earnings

• Long-term: leveraged upside via deep out-of-the-money calls

Both in notional value and volume, bullish trades dominate, pointing to elevated risk appetite.

Strategy considerations

For investors looking to position around the event:

• Premium-selling strategies:
  With IV at elevated levels, selling deep out-of-the-money puts (e.g., below $130) may offer attractive time decay, though it carries tail-risk if shares drop sharply.

• Defined-risk approaches:
  Bull call spreads or iron condors may appeal to those seeking to limit directional exposure and margin requirements while still participating in post-earnings volatility.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available options data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Options trading involves substantial risk, and investors should make independent, informed decisions.