To The Moon

All eyes will be on US market this Wed, 29 Apr 2026 especially after market close.

This is because 4 of Mag 7 will be reporting their quarterly results, namely (in sorted order) : $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$.

Of the stocks on the chopping board, I like to zoom-in on MSFT.

This post comes at a pivotal moment for MSFT, as it navigates a complex transition from AI hype to the rigorous demands of AI execution.

Q3 ’26 Estimates.

Based on Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates, MSFT is expected to report a robust, yet highly scrutinized, set of numbers:

Projected Revenue:

• Expected to come in at $81.4 billion.

• This estimate has remained stable since late October 2025, signaling confidence in the company’s core business segments despite broader stock market volatility.

Projected EPS (Non GAAP):

• Expected to come in at $4.07.

• Analysts have slightly raised EPS expectations due to resilient profitability.

Azure AI Services:

• A major highlight is the surge in the Azure AI Services segment, projected to contribute $23.4 billion for the full FY 2026, up significantly from the $18.8 billion forecasted a year ago.

Cloud Growth Guidance:

• Management has guided for Azure growth in the range of 37 - 38% for Q3 2026, a slight deceleration from the 39% seen in Q2 2026.

• Compared to its Q3 2025 cloud growth of 20%, it is also a deceleration of -2%.

• It will be interesting to find out if market analysts will penalize MSFT on this item as competition in the cloud space very competitive & intense.

Actuals vs Estimates.

For comparison of MSFT Q3 2026 estimates vs Q3 2025 actuals, I have compiled them in a table, for easy reference. (see below)

• The long and short of it is, MSFT is expected to top both its top line (+16.1% YoY) and bottom line (+19.7% YoY) in the coming quarterly earnings.

• Equally important is its Cloud Revenue where MSFT currently rank #2, behind Amazon Web Services (AWS) and ahead of Google Cloud.

Odds of Meeting Wall Street’s Expectations.

• MSFT has outperformed analyst expectations in the last 4 quarters, with EPS surprises ranging from +7.25% to +12.84%.

• For coming Q3 2026, odds of meeting expectations remain bullish but cautious, with EPS expectations set at $4.07 (up +17.6% YoY).

• Given the (a) strong guidance for cloud & AI and (b) company's track record of beating estimates, - odds of MSFT meeting or exceeding expectations are a high of 70-80%, though the market may focus on (i) Azure growth moderation and (ii) Capex concerns instead.

MSFT stock movement - past 12 months

Stock Price Movement - past 12 Months.

Despite MSFT’s strong fundamentals, its stock price has trended downwards after peaking on 28 Oct 2025. (see above)

Analysis of past 12 months reveals key catalysts dragging the stock down:

(1) Capex shock.

• On 29 Oct 2025, MSFT's Q1 FY26 report revealed massive capital expenditure (Capex) plans.

• For FY 2026, capex is projected to hit $146 – $150 billion.

• It spooked investors as fear that costs of building AI data centers were ballooning faster than the revenue those “future” data centers could generate.

(2) Multiple Compression:

• When MSFT peaked in late October 2025, MSFT was trading at roughly 30x forward earnings.

• As Azure’s growth cooled slightly to 38% from 40%, the market "re-rated" the stock, compressing its P/E multiple to a more conservative 22x.

(3) Copilot Slow Adoption:

• Just this March 2026, influential analyst notes flagged that Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption was not scaling as quickly as anticipated. (see below)

• While seat counts reached 15 million by January 2026, disappointing feedback regarding the software’s utility in everyday enterprise tasks led to a historic quarterly decline, the worst since 2008.

(4) Market Sentiment & Sector Rotation:

• The broader tech sector has seen rotation into AI and cloud leaders, but MSFT's premium valuation has made it vulnerable to profit-taking.

(5) Regulatory Headwinds:

• There is continued scrutiny from US and EU regulators regarding the OpenAI partnership and data privacy has added a "regulatory premium" to MSFT's risk profile. (see above)

Still A Buy ?

Despite the -33% drawdown, MSFT’s professional consensus remains overwhelmingly bullish.

Bull Case: Justifications

(1) Valuation:

• At 22x its 2027 earnings, MSFT is at its most attractive valuation in years.

• The stock is testing a "generational" support level between $369 and $371, a zone it has held firm for years.

(2) AI Dominance:

• MSFT is the only hyperscaler with a fully integrated "stack" from silicon (Maia chips) to the OS (Windows/Copilot) to the Cloud (Azure).

(3) Financial Health:

• The company returned $9.4 billion to shareholders in a single quarter recently, underscoring a cash-flow engine that remains unrivaled.

Technical Analysis.

I like to look into MSFT’s technical indicators and have a ‘technical’ feel of where the stock will be heading off, based on its past 12 months performances of (1) Simple moving averages (SMA) of 20-day, 50-day & 200-day, (2) MACD and (3) RSI. (see above)

Simple Moving Averages.

• On Fri, 24 Apr 2026, MSFT closed off the week at $424.60 /share; that is higher than its 20-day SMA ($391.97) and 50-day SMA ($391.97), clearly indicating that stock regained control over the near-term tape.

• However, it is still lower than its 200-day SMA ($470.09), that means longer-term trend remains negative to neutral and the stock has not fully reclaimed primary-trend leadership.

• Overall, near term, MSFT likely stays upward-biased but headline-sensitive.

MACD.

• Both MACD (9.82) and Signal (4.60) lines are above the Zero line, it implies MSFT is in a confirmed bullish regime where the 12-period average is higher than the 26-period average.

• With the MACD significantly above the Signal line - the "bullish” crossover confirms that short-term price momentum is outpacing the long-term trend.

• Lastly, a positive Divergence of 5.22 indicates that the gap between MACD & Signal is widening. suggesting current upward momentum is gaining strength, rather than exhausting.

RSI.

• With the 14-day RSI coming in 63.46, it indicates MSFT is currently in bullish momentum territory with a bit of room to wriggle before hitting “overbought” territory of “70” and above.

My viewpoints: (mine only)

I think the odds for MSFT to meet analysts’ estimates remain strong.

In the near term, concerns over MSFT’s sky-high Capex and cooling Azure growth will be on every investor’s concern list, requiring patience for upside.

For a long-term hold, MSFT is a buy. For short-term traders, it may be a hold until Capex and growth concerns are resolved.

For a buy consideration, possible entry points is anywhere between $400 - 420 /share range, against MSFT’s 52-week range of $356.28 - 555.45.

Despite MSFT’s recent drawdown, 93% of covering analysts maintain a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" rating.

The April 29 report is a binary event:

• If Azure growth hits +39%, a rapid rise towards the $470 (200-day SMA) is possible.

• If Capex guidance exceeds $155 billion without a wider than expected revenue beat, the stock may retest the $392, spelling trouble.

MSFT is in a critical crossroad, Agree ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• An (INTEL)ligent Buy After Q1 Earnings ? Yes !

• US Market ruled by Earnings not Reports.

• Don't Celebrate TSLA Q1 Earnings. Read To Know Why.

• Do you think MSFT will be able to manage its Capex from ballooning further ?

• Do you think MSFT will be able to retain its #2 position as global cloud provider ?

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