To The Moon

$SPY$

S&P 8,000 isn't just a random headline. It's backed by recent positioning — a number of far-dated call options at the 800 strike have seen significant volume:

$SPY 20270319 800.0 CALL$ 
$SPY 20260930 800.0 CALL$ 
$SPY 20270617 800.0 CALL$ 

These were opened at different times: early April, mid-April, and just a couple of days ago. Looking at the expirations, no one expects this to happen overnight — Q3 at the earliest. But at this pace, I wouldn't be surprised if SPY hits 800 by June.

The catalyst behind this surge is simple — and I've mentioned it before: Anthropic's revenue data, which leaked through media channels. Their revenue is growing exponentially — from $9B in January to $44B in April. That shattered the bearish narrative, which had argued since last November that AI's marginal cost was too high to ever turn a profit.

I previously called Anthropic's data disclosure a "mini-earnings report." Let me correct that: it is the single most critical earnings event each quarter. It's the source of all growth expectations for chip stocks and compute-related names. If you don't have time to track earnings, just watch Anthropic.

So when will SPY hit 8,000? Most likely around July — just ahead of earnings season.

By July, semi-annual reports will start coming out. But here's the real question: what if Anthropic's revenue growth slows?

The Anthropic CEO addressed this exact scenario earlier this year in a podcast. The host asked why they weren't buying more compute. His answer: they have to estimate compute needs based on annual usage with high precision. He expects 10x revenue growth this year — 20x or 30x would obviously be better. But if growth comes in at only 5x, and they've already booked a full year of compute? They go bankrupt.

So if Anthropic's revenue growth slows, it won't matter how great chip earnings look. The price will go back to where it came from — and even a 50% drop might be an understatement.

Given that logic, the current situation is clear: The S&P 500 could rocket to 8,000 in the next month — or crash back down right after, potentially causing a full-blown market crash.

I rarely recommend straddles (buy call + buy put). They typically only make sense during earnings season, when volatility exceeds expectations. But with Anthropic in the picture, this environment actually suits a straddle strategy well.

$TSLA$

If you're looking for names that still can rally, Tesla comes to mind — because it hasn't rallied much.

Tesla has been unusually quiet. So has Elon. Not like him. But compared to other compute-driven names, Tesla is still just a concept stock — nothing more.

That said, some bullish call activity has appeared: Wednesday's 620 call $TSLA 20260717 620.0 CALL$  and Monday's 450 call $TSLA 20260529 450.0 CALL$ . The 620 order is ambiguous in direction, but the 450 is clearly a buy.

If you want to be more conservative, selling puts works too. The stock is not bearish right now.

$NVDA$

The stock market is starting to behave more like futures markets — spot prices drive stocks. If NVDA doesn't raise GPU prices, it's hard to see the stock breaking out easily. A $4T behemoth doesn't move without a push.

On the other hand, it's also hard to see it fall. If you're scared of heights, selling puts on NVDA and TSLA is a good option. There's a sell put order at the May 15th 190 strike $NVDA 20260515 190.0 PUT$ .

Although put flow leans toward 190, I think 200 is also a fine strike for selling puts.

$INTC$

The thesis I laid out at the beginning is very relevant for understanding Intel's option flow. Recently, both call and put positioning have been extremely extreme — and both could end up being right. A put position doesn't necessarily mean the stock will drop, but some funds have to hedge whether they like it or not.

I don't see any reason to exit Intel before it hits a $1T market cap. And even then — maybe not. Compare it to TSMC.

For those not already in? It's awkward. Even I hesitate to enter at these levels. You need real conviction to hold from here.

$AMD$

On the night before AMD's earnings, call options at the 400 strike were literally the entire flow. Going forward, 400 might just become the new baseline — with the next target at 500.