We just witnessed an historic month of gains. According to the data highlighted in image.png, US stocks climbed steadily through May to finish at fresh record highs:
• The S&P 500 finished +5.15%, closing at 7,580.
• The NASDAQ finished +8.36%, closing at 26,972.
• The NASDAQ 100 crossed the monumental 30,000 milestone for the first time, closing at 30,333.
Is it a healthy bull or a hollow top? (The [IDEA] Thesis)
While the surface numbers are breathtaking, this rally presents a unique "hollow top" risk. The heavy lifting is being done almost entirely by a select group of mega-cap AI and semiconductor leaders. This concentration means the broader market isn't as robust as the indexes suggest. It isn't a bubble—because these tech giants are backing up their valuations with massive, real-world earnings—but it is a highly top-heavy structure. If profit-taking hits the top three tech weights, the entire index will slide.
Did I beat the index in May?
No, and that was a deliberate choice. My portfolio underperformed the Nasdaq's blistering +8.36% because I actively trimmed overextended tech positions and rotated capital into cash and defensive value sectors. Managing risk at all-time highs matters more than chasing the final 2% of a monthly run.
Which direction do you favor for June?
I favor a sideways/consolidation direction for June. After a massive +8% month, the market needs to digest these gains. Expecting a minor 3-5% healthy pullback mid-month, which will actually offer a fantastic re-entry point for sitting cash.
Over to the Community:
• Did your personal portfolio manage to beat the Nasdaq or S&P 500 in May?
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