SPCX, still bidding the IPO ? Warnings - Read first!
The public market debut of $Space Exploration Technologies Corp(SPCX)$ is being positioned as the defining initial public offering (IPO) of 2026.
However, beneath the layer of retail enthusiasm and public relation triumphs lies:
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A growing collection of critical red flags.
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Rigorous institutional pushback.
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Deeply concerning financial disclosures.
A thorough analysis of the underlying data, institutional actions, and expert warnings reveals a strong, evidence-based counter-narrative against participating in this public offering.
Ready for the “bad” news ?
Unjustified Valuations & Deteriorating Margins
The core argument against bidding for SPCX rests on a severe disconnect between the company's public market valuation targets and its verified financial performance.
True Valuation’s Massive Disconnect.
SPCX has skipped traditional valuation discovery protocols.
Typically, a company going public establishes a preliminary pricing range to gauge investor demand before finalizing a number.
SPCX completely bypassed this standard mechanism, independently declaring a flat price of $135 per share.
This pricing seeks an implied market valuation of $1.77 trillion that is a staggering 40% premium over the $1.25 trillion valuation the company assigned to itself just months prior in February 2026.
High-profile institutional experts have labeled this pricing as completely detached from fundamentals:
Morningstar Says:
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Equity research firm Morningstar explicitly stated that SPCX is "significantly overvalued".
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Analysts pegged the true valuation of the company at $780 billion.
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This means, current IPO target is overvalued by more than double its actual worth.
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Morningstar strongly advises retail investors to sit on the sidelines - predicting that much more attractive, lower entry points will manifest after the initial IPO hype deflates.
Michael Burry Says:
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Publicly challenged the core architecture of the offering on his Substack.
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After evaluating the company’s official Form S-1 registration statement, he explicitly stated that "nothing in that S-1 suggests it is worth $1 trillion let alone $2 trillion."
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Cautioned that any immediate upward momentum in SPCX will be entirely driven by technical tracking & speculative hype rather than fundamental value.
Reversing Profits & Mega Cash Burns (AI)
On the contrary, the mandatory financial transparency of the S-1 filing broke open the myth of SPCX as an inherently highly profitable enterprise.
The data revealed a massive financial reversal:
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In 2024, SpaceX recorded a net profit of $791 million.
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In 2025, the company collapsed into a massive net loss of -$4.94 billion.
The massive -$5.7 billion downward swing is driven by high-stakes capital expenditures (capex) into unproven AI initiatives.
The prospectus shows that capital raised from IPO investors will not be entirely utilized to optimize established aerospace operations.
Instead, it will fund highly speculative, unmapped capital projects, eg. build orbital data centers in space.
Unproven AI & Tech Hurdles
The astronomical $1.77 trillion valuation heavily factors in the company's AI ecosystem, that encompasses:
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xAI.
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Musk revenue-losing social media platform X.
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Grok chatbot.
Independent analysts view this positioning with extreme skepticism.
Morningstar publicly noted that Grok is structurally lagging and cannot be considered a leading AI lab when compared to entrenched competitors eg. OpenAI & Anthropic.
Furthermore, the core satellite broadband business, Starlink, continues to face steep technological and regulatory hurdles that remain completely outside of the company’s operational control.
Corporate Governance: The Exclusion List and Inside Control
For institutional investors, structural integrity and shareholder rights are paramount.
SPCX presents severe vulnerabilities in both areas, to the point of triggering outright blacklisting by major global funds.
The Blacklist
A prime indicator of systemic structural risk is the explicit action taken by the Danish Pension Fund.
The fund officially excluded SPCX from its investment universe - explicitly citing severe concerns regarding both (a) its inflated valuation and (b) its deeply flawed corporate governance.
When massive, long-horizon sovereign and institutional funds refuse to touch an asset due to structural governance risks, retail investors must recognize that they are entering a lopsided ecosystem.
The Super-Voting Share Trap
The IPO filing confirmed the implementation of a strict dual-class or super-voting share structure.
This mechanism ensures that external public shareholders will possess virtually zero democratic say in the direction of the company.
The framework is explicitly engineered to lock in total, absolute control over the corporation's voting power, effectively reducing public investors to silent capital providers with no recourse to influence corporate policy, board appointments, or capital allocation.
*Note: I have covered this in my 22 May 2026 post on SPCX. Click here ! to find out.
Musk : Primary Catalyst Against Buying
When an investor purchases shares in SpaceX, they are not merely investing in aerospace engineering; they are financing the individual at the helm.
The corporate history of its owner provides the ultimate argument against buying into this IPO.
Use Public Entities as Private Piggy Bank.
Corporate filings and investigative reports highlight a highly unorthodox approach to corporate governance.
Historically, Musk has treated SpaceX as a personal liquidity source and a financial cushion for his secondary, struggling business ventures.
Over the past two decades, he has consistently secured massive, multi-million-dollar personal loans directly from SpaceX's balance sheet to himself.
Furthermore, he has repeatedly leveraged the financial strength of the rocket company to shore up or rescue other deeply troubled entities within his personal business orbit.
By buying into this IPO, public capital is directly exposed to the risk of being diverted to subsidize external, unrelated corporate failures.
Proven - Timelines Missed & Broken Promises
A foundational pillar of equity valuation is the predictability of execution.
Musk's track record across all business entities reveals a systemic, decades-long pattern of over-promising and under-delivering on structural timelines: (see below)
Above historical blueprint demonstrates that the owner's forward-looking statements cannot be reliably used to model financial returns.
The "Mars timelines" and "orbital data center" narratives used to justify the current $1.77 trillion valuation are highly likely to suffer the exact same multi-year delays, draining investor capital in the process.
My viewpoints: (mine only)
Bidding for SpaceX at its current IPO pricing requires investors to pay a staggering premium for a company that recently logged a multi-billion-dollar net loss, completely stripped away public voting rights, and operates under highly erratic governance.
History proves that the underlying asset's leadership consistently misses critical structural timelines while treating corporate balance sheets as private funding reserves.
Actually, US markets offer an abundance of highly profitable, structurally sound enterprises.
Investors really do not need to risk their hard-earned monies on a hyper-inflated, governance-deficient rocket listing when there are plenty of other fish in the sea. Agree ?
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Do you think it makes perfect sense to speculate on SPCX, make a quick buck & exit quickly ?
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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Even $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has fallen by -4.04% intraday. Will Mr Musk be concerned (very) given that SPCX is due to go live next Fri, 12 Jun 2026 ?
Timing is everything and especially concerning if the market is not faring well, like today. Agree ?
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