To The Moon

Read Dan's article published on 9 June 2026 for full disclaimers: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china-tech-back-conversation-dan-chang-c-s-%E5%BC%A0%E7%88%B5%E5%85%B4--u1rxc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via

The Market Moved On. Did China Tech?

Markets have a habit of making yesterday's favourites look forgotten, until they aren't.

Some years ago, before the clampdown by China authorities in 2021, almost every conversation seemed to revolve around China technology stocks. Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi were just some of the names that investors couldn't get enough of.

Then the narrative changed.

Regulatory concerns, slowing economic growth, property market challenges and geopolitical tensions gradually dampened sentiment towards China equities. At the same time, the spotlight shifted firmly towards the US technology stocks, where Nvidia and the Magnificent Seven dominated headlines.

But that does not mean China technology stocks disappeared from investors' radar screens. In fact, as a remisier who speaks with investors regularly, I continued to see interest and trading activity in many of these China technology giants through both the troughs and the rebounds. The conversations never completely went away. They simply became quieter.

Today, however, there is a noticeable difference.

Investors are no longer just asking whether China can recover. Increasingly, they are asking whether China technology stocks could once again play a bigger role in global portfolios, and whether there may be short term trading opportunities emerging within the sector.

Part of that interest comes from valuation. Part of it comes from improving sentiment. And, I think, part of it comes from a simple question:

What if some of China's largest technology companies have more growth potential ahead than the market currently expects?

After all, markets often move from pessimism to optimism long before the headlines do.

That is why these China tech companies continue to attract attention from both investors and traders alike. Each company offers a different way of participating in China's technology ecosystem. And each may tell a very different story about where the next phase of China's technology sector is headed.

Nvidia Took The Spotlight, But China Tech Never Left The Stage

For the past two years, whenever I spoke to investors about technology stocks, the conversation almost always revolved around the US technology stocks.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta Platform, Amazon.

It felt like every conversation somehow found its way back to them.

And understandably so.

The Magnificent Seven dominated headlines, drove market returns, and captured investor imagination.

Meanwhile, despite occasional rebounds, many China technology stocks struggled to regain the heights they once enjoyed. Some drifted lower. Others simply faded from the spotlight.

Alibaba was no longer the market darling it once was. Tencent rarely generated the same excitement among retail investors. Even Xiaomi, despite its rapid growth, often found itself overshadowed by developments elsewhere.

Yet recently, I have noticed something interesting. More investors are beginning to ask about China technology stocks again. Not because the risks have disappeared. But because the opportunities are becoming harder to ignore.

Alibaba: More Than Just An E-Commerce Giant

For many investors, Alibaba is still best known as an e-commerce giant. After all, online shopping was the business that first put the company on the global investment map.

But today's Alibaba is increasingly becoming an artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing story as well. Its cloud business remains one of the largest in China, while management continues to invest heavily in AI capabilities. In many ways, Alibaba is no longer just selling products online. It is also building the digital infrastructure that powers businesses behind the scenes.

Ironically, while investors have spent the past two years chasing AI opportunities in the US, one of China's largest AI and cloud platforms has often remained outside the spotlight.

As AI continues to dominate investment conversations globally, some investors are beginning to re-evaluate Alibaba through a different lens. The question is no longer just how many packages are being delivered. It is whether Alibaba deserves a bigger place in the AI conversation than the market currently gives it credit for.

What Is The Chart Telling Us in the Near Term?

Technically speaking, Alibaba's share price remains trapped within a broad trading range. After retreating from its recent high of around HK$144, the stock pulled back towards a key support level near HK$117. Encouragingly, the strong rebound on 2 June 2026, marked by a long bullish candlestick, suggests that bargain hunters may be returning to the market.

For now, Alibaba appears to be caught in a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Should the rebound gain traction, the stock could make another attempt at the HK$144 resistance level, continuing the range-bound trading pattern that has largely characterised price action since late February 2026. However, investors may also want to keep an eye on the HK$117 support zone. A decisive break below this level could signal a breakdown of the current trading range and potentially pave the way for a retest of the HK$100 level.

Tencent: The Quiet Giant Of China's Digital Economy

Tencent remains one of China's most dominant technology companies.

From gaming and social media to digital payments, cloud services and AI initiatives, Tencent's ecosystem touches hundreds of millions of users every day. In many ways, it is woven into the daily lives of consumers and businesses across China through platforms such as WeChat and WeChat Pay. In fact, many consumers interact with Tencent's ecosystem multiple times a day, often without even thinking about it.

What makes Tencent particularly interesting is that while many investors associate the company with gaming, its business extends far beyond that. Its diverse ecosystem allows Tencent to generate significant cash flow while continuing to invest in future growth areas, including cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

That is why Tencent is often described as one of the cornerstones of China's digital economy.

For investors seeking exposure to China's technology sector, Tencent remains one of the key names to watch.

What Is The Chart Telling Us in the Near Term?

​​​​​​​Technically speaking, Tencent's share price has been on a corrective path since peaking at around HK$683 in October 2025, with the stock gradually drifting lower towards a key support zone near HK$420. Encouragingly, buyers appeared to step in at this level, triggering a sharp rebound accompanied by a noticeable pickup in trading volume, a sign that market interest may be starting to return.

For now, Tencent appears to be at an important juncture. The recent rebound suggests that bargain hunters may be testing the waters once again, although the stock still faces resistance near HK$482, followed by a more significant barrier around HK$545. Like a boxer trying to climb back off the ropes, the initial bounce is encouraging, but a sustained recovery will require follow-through. On the downside, a decisive break below the HK$420 support level could undermine the recovery narrative and leave the stock vulnerable to further weakness.

Xiaomi: From Your Pocket To The Road

Of the three, Xiaomi is arguably the most interesting.

Many investors still think of Xiaomi primarily as a smartphone company. After all, smartphones were the business that first put Xiaomi on the global stage. Today, however, Xiaomi is increasingly positioning itself as an ecosystem company spanning smartphones, smart devices, AI and electric vehicles (EVs).

Its EV ambitions have captured significant market attention, while its AI capabilities continue to gain traction. In many ways, Xiaomi is no longer just selling devices. It is building an interconnected ecosystem designed to follow consumers from their homes to their pockets, and now even onto the roads.

That is what makes Xiaomi particularly interesting from an investment perspective.

Rather than offering exposure to a single growth theme, Xiaomi potentially provides investors with exposure to several major themes through a single company.

What Is The Chart Telling Us in the Near Term?

​​​​​​​Technically speaking, Xiaomi's share price remains under pressure, having retreated significantly from its July 2025 peak of around HK$61.45. Since then, the stock has been trading within a well-defined downtrend, characterised by a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Looking on the positive side, Xiaomi has recently staged a modest rebound from its recent lows near HK$27. However, the stock remains below its key moving averages and the prevailing downtrend line, suggesting that sellers still retain the upper hand for now. Like a runner attempting to turn a corner after a long uphill climb, the initial bounce is a positive sign, but further confirmation is needed before a more sustained recovery can be established.

Should buying momentum continue to improve, investors may look towards the HK$31 to HK$32 region, which has broadly capped the stock's recent trading range. A convincing breakout above this level could improve the technical outlook and potentially open the door towards the next major resistance area around HK$37.50. On the downside, the recent low near HK$27 remains an important level to watch. A decisive break below this support could signal further weakness and potentially extend the stock's longer-term downtrend.

The Gap Between Perception And Reality

What makes all three companies interesting today is not simply their businesses.

It is the gap between perception and reality.

For several years, investor sentiment towards China remained overwhelmingly negative. As a result, expectations fell. Valuations compressed. And many investors simply stopped paying attention.

But markets rarely wait for everything to become perfect. In fact, some of the biggest market moves often begin when expectations are at their lowest and sentiment starts to improve.

The question investors are increasingly asking is not whether China has risks.

Those risks are well known. The question is whether the market has become too pessimistic, and whether today's reality is beginning to look better than yesterday's expectations.

From Investing To Trading

Over the years, I have noticed something interesting about markets. Investors tend to focus on long-term stories. Traders tend to focus on catalysts.

China technology stocks happen to have both.

A policy announcement can shift sentiment overnight. An earnings report can trigger a sharp rally or sell-off. A new AI development can quickly change how investors view an entire sector.

In many ways, China technology stocks can sometimes feel like a market where the narrative changes quickly, and where today's headline can become tomorrow's catalyst. And when markets become increasingly headline-driven, opportunities can emerge just as quickly as risks.

That is one reason why some active traders look beyond simply buying and holding the underlying shares. Instead, they may consider instruments that allow them to express a short-term market view with a smaller capital outlay.

One example is structured warrants listed on SGX.

Depending on their market outlook, some traders use call warrants to position for potential upside opportunities, while others may use put warrants to express a bearish view or even hedge an existing shareholding against short-term market volatility.

Of course, structured warrants are generally designed for short-term trading and carry their own risks, including time decay and leverage effects. As with any investment product, understanding how they work and ensuring they fit one's risk appetite remain important.

Putting Thesis To Work

Let’s look at examples of how one can use Macquarie's structured warrants to take a short-term position in one of the names I covered above - Alibaba.

1) Using Alibaba call warrants to trade from the support toward HK$144

To simulate how Alibaba call warrants will perform based on an investor’s intended entry and exit stock targets, one can use the Warrant Selector tool.

Given that one is bullish on Alibaba shares, click on the call button after selecting “Alibaba” from the underlying drop down. This will display a list of available Alibaba call warrants for investors to choose from. For illustration purposes on how to use the tool, we will use the trending call warrant NNTW shown below.

Assuming Alibaba trades to HK$117 now, and take 8 weeks to gain 23.1% to the resistance level of HK$144, Alibaba call warrant $Alibaba MB eCW261005(NNTW.SI)$ (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/livematrix/NNTW) will gain 5.8 times more, i.e +135.7% from S$0.014 to S$0.033, assuming all pricing factors remaining constant

Keep increasing the number of weeks and one would find that the percentage gains on the call warrant will erode. This is due to the effect of time decay – the costs of holding a warrant, where the longer one holds onto the warrant, the higher the holding costs.

The maximum holding period for this warrant is estimated to be about 13 weeks, as the warrant will be unchanged on the 14th week even if Alibaba shares traded 23.1% higher, due to time decay eroding all of the warrant’s geared returns.

Therefore, should Alibaba fail to reach HK$144 in 13 weeks, an investor should cut losses and exit from the warrant anyway.

2) What if Alibaba breaks below the support level of HK$117?

If so, one can consider using a Alibaba put warrant should the HK$117 support level fail to hold. To help investors select a Alibaba put warrant, one can repeat the above steps of using the Warrant Selector and choose the “put” instead of a “call”. This will display a list of available Alibaba put warrants for investors to choose from. For illustration purposes on how to use the Exposure Simulator tool, we will use the trending* Alibaba put warrant $Alibaba MB ePW261005(JCJW.SI)$ (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/livematrix/JCJW). The Exposure Simulator is a tool that can help investors estimate their warrant investment and returns versus a shareholding position in Alibaba shares.

*Trending warrants refer to warrants with the highest liquidity and tightest spreads for the specific underlying

​​​​​​​Exposure Simulator: type in number of Alibaba shares you would buy to see the equivalent amount of warrant investment in chosen put warrant to hedge the same level of stock exposure

Assuming an investor is holding onto 10,000 Alibaba shares (worth S$188,485) and is keen to hedge against a further pullback in Alibaba shares after the HK$117 support level gives way. He or she can buy Alibaba put warrant JCJW while Alibaba shares are trading at HK$115 as an example, and can invest approximately S$40,975 (before brokerage costs) to buy ~788,000 units of Alibaba put warrant JCJW to hedge his/her 188,485 worth of shareholding exposure.

The reason for the much lower capital required is due to the warrant’s effective gearing of 4.6 times, meaning, the warrant will move approximately 4.6 times more than Alibaba shares, and costs approximately S$0.052 versus Alibaba’s share price of HK$115 on 5 June.

The target exit level for the put will be the price level that the investor believes Alibaba will find support at. Using the target support level of HK$100 for example, the put warrant will make potential absolute price returns of $25,215 that will offset the investor’s shareholding loss of S$24,585 holding onto 10,000 Alibaba shares, should the shares fall by 13% from HK$115 to HK$100 in 6 days (assuming all pricing factors remain constant).

Given the availability of call and put warrants, investors can participate either in the short-term upside or downside in Alibaba shares depending on whether the support levels hold or are broken, and where the investor thinks the Alibaba share price is heading.

​​​​​​​Both the Warrant Selector and Exposure Simulator tools mentioned can be applied to either call or put warrants to help warrant investors estimate the warrant performance, maximum holding period and estimated investment amount in the warrants.

The sharing on how one can take a position using warrants has been contributed by Macquarie Warrants Singapore. Please refer to the end of the article for important notice and disclaimers.

You can get more information on Macquarie structured warrants here: https://www.warrants.com.sg

Different Views, Different Tools

Structured warrants are not suitable for every investor.

They are higher-risk instruments and require investors to understand factors such as leverage, time decay and volatility. In Singapore, investors are also required to meet the relevant Specified Investment Products (SIP) requirements before they can trade structured warrants.

But for traders with a clear market view, structured warrants can offer a way to gain exposure to potential price movements without committing the full capital required to purchase the underlying shares.

One feature that some investors find useful is that the maximum loss is limited to the amount invested in the structured warrant itself. While this does not eliminate risk, it means losses cannot exceed the initial capital committed to the structured warrant, even as investors gain exposure to potential leveraged returns.

Think of it this way. Different market views often require different tools, just as different market conditions may call for different strategies.

The key point is not whether one chooses to use structured warrants.

The key point is understanding which tools best align with one's market view, investment objectives and risk appetite.

Investors who would like to learn more about the SIP requirements may refer to: ​​​​​​​https://www.sgxacademy.com/home/infographics/what-you-need-to-know-about-specified-investment-products/

Final Thoughts

Having spent more than two decades in the markets, one thing I have learnt is that investment narratives rarely stay the same forever.

A few years ago, everybody wanted exposure to China technology stocks. Then sentiment shifted, and many investors looked elsewhere. Today, the conversation is beginning to change once again. Whether Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi ultimately become the next market leaders remains to be seen.

But markets do not wait for certainty. They move when perceptions change. They move when expectations shift. And they move when investors begin looking at familiar stories through a different lens.

Of course, having a market view is only one part of the equation. The other is deciding how best to express that view. Some investors may prefer to buy and hold the underlying shares. Others may focus on shorter-term opportunities arising from earnings announcements, policy developments or shifts in market sentiment. For such traders, instruments such as structured warrants can offer a way to gain leveraged exposure to potential short-term price movements with a smaller capital outlay.

Different views. Different strategies. Different tools.

The key is not simply finding opportunities. It is understanding which tools best align with your market outlook, investment objectives and risk appetite.

Because in investing, conviction matters. But having the right tool to express that conviction can matter just as much.

Disclosure:

From time to time, the author traded structured warrants on a short term basis. But at the time of publishing, the author has no vested interest in the above mentioned structured warrants.