SpaceX Lists Tomorrow! Up or Down on Day One? Predict and Win Tiger Coins!
Tomorrow, SpaceX officially begins trading on Nasdaq under the ticker $Space Exploration Technologies(SPCX)$.
According to Bloomberg, the IPO has been heavily oversubscribed. The offering is priced at $135 per share, with 555.6 million shares issued, implying a valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion — effectively making it the largest IPO in history.
The community has already split into two camps.
Some say it's a no-brainer: an oversubscribed IPO almost always means strong demand at the open.
Others are more honest: "Whenever I don't buy, it goes up. Whenever I buy, it goes down."
And some compared SpaceX IPO with $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
Prediction Time: Will SpaceX Close Up or Down on Day One?
Today's SpaceX isn't just a rocket company anymore.
It's a combination of: Rockets, Satellites, AI Infrastructure
The company recently signed a computing agreement with Google worth $920 million per month through 2029, totaling roughly $30 billion, and has previously disclosed hyperscale AI partnerships similar to Anthropic.
In other words, buyers aren't just purchasing Falcon rockets and Starlink.
They're also buying an AI infrastructure story.
What Happens After Day One?
1.The Honeymoon Phase
Oversubscription + scarcity + Musk's following could easily drive an emotional first-day surge. At this stage, sentiment matters far more than fundamentals.
2.The Reality Check Phase
Eventually, the market will return to familiar questions: How does SpaceX fund its massive capital spending? When does xAI become profitable?
Community Discussion
🚀 Relative to the $135 IPO price, what's your prediction?
Opens +30% or more?
Opens +10% to +30%?
Trades near the IPO price?
Or breaks below issue price?
💰 Are you buying on day one, or watching from the sidelines?
📈 One year from now, do you think SPCX will be above or below $135?
Drop your prediction below to win tiger coins~
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That said, I think the first-day rally may be the easy part. Once the initial excitement fades, traders will likely start taking profits, and the market will shift focus to valuation, capital spending needs, and how fast the AI-related businesses can actually scale into profits. A pullback in the days after listing would not surprise me.
Personally, I won’t be chasing it on day one. I expect a strong initial surge followed by a meaningful correction as early buyers lock in gains. Longer term, I still like the underlying assets, but I’d rather wait for a more attractive entry after the hype settles.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
Day 1: I believe that SpaceX will open at +30% or more. I expect an immediate volatile spike up to USD 175 and more. It's FOMO time!
1 Year from now: While Day 1 momentum belongs to the buyers, economic reality will dominate the next 12 months. It is highly likely to trade below the USD 135 IPO price. Once euphoria has faded, the market will be forced to confront SpaceX's USD 4.94 billion net loss & its huge capex.
When the lockup period expires, early venture capitalists will likely dump millions of shares to lockin profits, triggering a huge supply shock in SPCX.
That is the best time to buy SpaceX as it will fly like a rocket to Mars in the long term.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG
Opening Pop: The stock selected your "Opens +10% to +30%" bracket, officially making its first trade at $150.00, which is an 11.1% gain over the $135 issue price.
Intraday Action: It briefly surged into the +30% territory, hitting a high of $176.52.
Day One Close: SPCX wrapped up its historic first session at $160.95, up 19.22% from the IPO price.
The Bear Case (Below $135): Institutional analysts like those at Morningstar warn that the $1.75+ trillion initial valuation is exceptionally high for a company that posted a net loss of nearly $5 billion in 2025. Critics note that high-conviction but capital-heavy segments like xAI are generating massive losses. When the 180-day insider lockup expires in December 2026, a wave of insider selling could drag the stock below $135
The Bull Case (Above $135): Optimists point to SpaceX’s absolute dominan
Once the emotions die down, I think many will realise that SpaceX hasn’t delivered anything that it has promised. There isn’t even a prototype yet the cash burn is at crazy amounts. How long and how much can SpaceX burn? Reality check will eventually come in the next 1-2 years. I think it will go back to more accurately reflect what the company is worth or more like what spacelink is worth. It will be less than $80 and possibly be only around $60-70, depending also if there is panic selling or selling by disillusioned retail investors who decide that the opportunity cost of putting their money with SpaceX can be better offset by buying other stocks.
I will definitely pick it up when it drops to less than $50. For now, the risk is far greater than the benefit and I think holding cash is safer than buying SpaceX.
Rough probabilities:
Above $135: 60%
Below $135: 40%
The bull case is that:
Starlink keeps compounding revenue growth.
Investors continue assigning premium multiples to AI, space, and infrastructure assets.
Index inclusion creates sustained institutional ownership.
The bear case is that:
The IPO enthusiasm fades.
Lockup expirations increase supply.
The market decides the valuation got too far ahead of fundamentals.
My prediction: SPCX opens around $165–180 (+22% to +33%) and finishes its first year around $170–220, assuming the broader market remains supportive. That's bullish, but not nearly as bullish as some of the projections circulating right now.
SPCX with a Pied Piper CEO in tow should do well to close as high as +68%; if not higher by the time Friday trading calls it a day.
SPCX following week's movement in US exchange, will rise & fall in tandem based on Trump's pressure escalating tactics on Iran. And how far the former first civilisation country resolve & resilience will be put to the test.
Is Trump willing to gamble his mid-term election away by raising yet another war on Iran.
The path for SPCX is definitively up:
- Day 1: Opens +10% to +30%. The deal is heavily oversubscribed. With a tight 4% free float, supply scarcity will spark an immediate opening pop over $135.
- Strategy: Buying Day One. Waiting means missing immediate index catalysts. Fast-tracked MSCI inclusion on June 13 makes global passive funds forced buyers, protecting your downside.
- 1-Year View: Above $135. Near-term xAI capex is heavy, but Starlink anchors the valuation with highly profitable recurring revenue (10.3M subscribers at a 63% EBITDA margin).
理由：
1. IPO定价135美元，但市场认购热度极高。
2. 贝莱德计划认购50亿美元订单，显示机构需求强劲。
3. SpaceX不仅代表航天业务，更包含Starlink未来增长空间与太空经济想象力。
4. 航天概念股近期普遍走强，市场情绪偏乐观。
5. 不过以1.77万亿美元估值上市，首日涨幅预计不会无限扩张，因此预计收盘落在200-230美元区间。
综合判断：216.88美元。