$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$
The simplified bull case:
▸ FY2026 revenue guided over $1.1B, roughly +140% YoY
▸ Supply constrained vs demand through 2027
▸ Mid-2027 model implies ~$471M/month transceiver revenue, an annualized run-rate of ~$5.7B (before CATV upside)
The key angle: it's one of the only US players vertically integrating laser chip production, just as hyperscalers prioritize supply chain control. On top of that, CPO/ELSFP adoption adds another layer of optionality.
The Street is already chasing it higher:
Rosenblatt around $220
Raymond James around $160
But the run-rate math still looks ahead of consensus.
Yes, volatility is part of the package - this is a high beta infrastructure name.
I'm not trading it. I'm positioned.
Target remains $300 by EOY.
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