Quick updates before I head out:
The FOMC used 2-to-3-month-old data from before the oil crash to vote on a hawkish dot plot, pushing the probability of a September rate hike near 50%. There's a view that future decisions should use real-time data and eliminate these stale dot plots.
Unfortunately, the market is currently structured around this outdated dot plot, driving up 2-year yields and the USD, which is triggering a negative chain reaction for metals and rate-sensitive stocks.
On the flip side, 10Y and 30Y yields are reacting to falling oil prices and are dropping.
Lower oil prices take 1 to 3 months to impact CPI and 2 to 3 months to hit PCE, and that's when a USD correction is expected.
While current market pressure stems from rising short-term yields and a stronger dollar, the AI boom cycle is far from over. This pullback offers a discounted entry for those who missed the initial rally.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
