$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$
Memory makers (DRAM, HBM) and NAND makers are all showing impressive order books, strong profits, and forecasts.
Apple raising prices is undoubtedly bad for consumers. But for the underlying memory chip stocks, it's a significant boost. This suggests memory makers have leverage, while Apple doesn't.
The issue for SOXX or SOXL is that Micron is the largest memory holding at only about 7-8%, so while it's significant, it's pretty much the only major memory name in there.
So even though we get a boost from memory, Marvell, and AMD, we have a laggard in Broadcom. NVIDIA also hasn't been a great performer compared to AMD, Micron, etc.
Here's my take. SK Hynix gets a US listing on July 10. It gets added to SOXX and receives a major boost then. Guess what else is happening on July 10... TSMC's monthly revenue numbers.
SOXL will also do a major rebalancing in September, so it will be interesting to see how they adjust the weightings between memory makers and chip makers.
So if you're a trader with a slightly longer horizon, holding until around July 11th or 12th makes a lot of sense.
July is likely to see SOXL easily move past 300.
As for the next few days... if the Consumer Sentiment Index nears 50, that would be a short-term boost, along with lower oil prices, etc.
TLDR: In my opinion, SOXL will likely hover in the 200-300 range in the next few days, but July is the month to watch. September even more so for the actual rebalancing to have a major effect.
Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong or if you have a different view.
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