$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$
You had fears about co-packaged optics delays, the Fed turning more hawkish, memory names rolling over, and high-beta names all getting de-risked at the same time – everything just hit at once.
At around $130, you're basically paying about 2 times the company's mid-2027 revenue run-rate target (~$5.6B annualized). On the surface that sounds rich, but that's only true if you assume growth slows down meaningfully from here.
Right now the numbers still say otherwise – a triple-digit growth profile, FY guidance around $1.1B, Q1 up 51%, over $300M+ in locked 800G/1.6T orders, and a pretty aggressive capacity buildout that's expected to scale massively into 2027. Even 1.6T shipments are starting this summer.
Yes, execution risk is real. This is not a perfect management story. But the tape is pricing it like demand is gone… while backlog and supply expansion are saying the opposite.
That disconnect is usually where the most interesting setups come from.
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