To The Moon

If I had to summarize my first half of 2026 in one sentence, I would say:

It was a first half filled with both pain and reward.

The reward was that I saw the opportunity in the memory sector early.

The pain was that I got the direction right, but I did not truly hold on.

The best decision I made in the first half of the year was starting to build a position in the memory sector in January, mainly through Micron.

My thinking at the time was simple:

As HBM prices continued to rise, DRAM and NAND were also entering a new pricing upcycle. The memory industry was likely moving back into a strong cycle.

Historically, memory has always been a classic cyclical industry. Every few years, it enters a powerful upcycle.

But this time is different.

This cycle is not only driven by a normal supply-demand recovery. It is also being driven by the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure.

HBM, enterprise SSDs, DRAM, and NAND are all being pulled by AI servers and cloud capex.

In other words, this memory cycle may not just be a traditional pricing cycle.

It may be part of the broader AI hardware cycle.

But my biggest regret is also related to Micron.

After $美光科技(MU)$ March earnings report, the stock pulled back by around 30%.

At that time, I was not firm enough. More importantly, I did not fully understand my own core thesis.

So I sold.

Then in May, I bought Micron back at a higher price.

If I could say one thing to myself at the beginning of the year, it would be this:

Holding matters more than anything. Trust your own vision.

Looking back now, my original judgment was not wrong.

At the beginning of the year, U.S. tech stocks were not especially strong across the board. Some large-cap technology names did not offer a powerful enough return profile.

But at the same time, the fundamentals of the memory industry were clearly improving:

HBM was in tight supply.

DRAM and NAND price expectations were getting stronger.

AI server demand continued to grow.

Cloud capex showed no obvious sign of slowing down.

In that environment, memory had a strong chance to become a new main theme within U.S. tech growth stocks.

So looking back, I did catch the right direction.

But the problem was that my understanding was not deep enough.

When your conviction is not deep enough, you cannot hold firmly through violent volatility.

That is the real reason I missed a much larger profit.

I remain positive on the memory sector.

On one hand, $MU, Samsung, $SKHYNIX, and other memory leaders are continuing to benefit from the structural demand created by AI.

On the other hand, institutional expectations for the sector are becoming more aligned.

The core market logic is clear:

AI capex is still ongoing.

HBM demand remains strong.

Enterprise SSD demand is improving.

The DRAM and NAND pricing cycle is still moving upward.

This theme is not over.

Of course, I also understand that when market consensus becomes stronger, short-term volatility usually becomes bigger.

Around major earnings reports, price hike expectations, analyst target upgrades, and the potential Hynix ADR listing, related stocks may see sharp moves.

So my strategy is clear:

Keep the main position in common stocks.

Do not use heavy leverage on core capital.

Small capital can be used for event-driven trades, but it should never threaten the safety of the main position.

My biggest lesson from the first half of the year is this:

Never use heavy leverage with core capital.

Survival is always more important than getting rich overnight.

Options and high leverage can be used with small amounts of money for experience.

But they should never be used to gamble with core principal.

What truly helps people build wealth over time is not chasing every move every day.

It is making the right judgment on a major trend, then sticking with it in a relatively safe way.

So my plan for the second half of the year is simple:

Continue to hold and monitor the U.S. memory theme.

Focus on $MU, Micron’s supply chain, the potential Hynix ADR, Samsung, and the broader AI memory value chain.

If there is a meaningful pullback, I will focus on one question:

Is this a real fundamental reversal, or just volatility caused by sentiment and trading structure?

If the fundamentals have not changed, I am more likely to treat the pullback as a new opportunity to observe, re-enter, or add exposure.

The first half of 2026 taught me one thing:

Getting the direction right is only the first step.

Real returns come from conviction, position sizing, and patience.

Do not reject your thesis just because of one pullback.

Do not think you are invincible just because of one profitable trade.

Markets will always be volatile.

What really matters is staying alive, making fewer big mistakes, and holding on to the true major cycles.

For me, the first half of 2026 was not an ending.

It was a reminder:

Choose the right sector. Control leverage. Hold the trend. Build wealth slowly.