To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$

Last week, the market experienced a sharper-than-expected decline driven by aggressive profit-taking in technology stocks, renewed concerns surrounding excessive AI-related market enthusiasm, and even panic-driven liquidation caused by extreme positioning conditions.

This week, however, the market entered a stabilization phase as buying and selling flows began rebalancing following those deeply oversold conditions. As discussed in our previous update, the market generally moved within the anticipated range and ultimately closed the week with a constructive rebound and relatively healthy upward price action.

Consistent with our outlook from last week, we currently expect this stabilization process to continue into next week as well. During this process, temporary volatility may continue to appear as buying and selling flows gradually move toward a more balanced structure.

Based on this week’s closing conditions, our outlook has shifted modestly more constructive compared to last week. We now expect the weekly upward flow entering early July to develop in a somewhat more stable and moderate manner than previously anticipated.

However, it is important to emphasize that the broader market structure still remains within the range of a corrective trend environment. As a result, there remains a meaningful possibility that next week may still close with mixed range-bound fluctuations similar to previous expectations.

At this stage, the key confirmation period regarding whether the market can transition into a more sustainable bullish trend structure continues to align with our existing outlook, with next week expected to become a more visible and decisive confirmation window.

Accordingly, we continue to believe that next week may serve as another important opportunity for gradually building positions ahead of the anticipated weekly upward movement expected during July.

At the same time, as discussed in our recent weekly and monthly trend reports, the probability remains very high that beginning around late July to early August, the weekly trend structure may begin transitioning downward into either a corrective phase or a broader bearish trend structure.

For this reason, beginning around mid-to-late July, we believe investors should increasingly consider adopting a more defensive strategy focused on profit-taking, capital preservation, and preparation for potential downside risk.

Importantly, our outlook regarding this broader downside transition remains highly consistent and reliable at this stage, with the probability of major revisions currently viewed as relatively low.